Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[3090]

And then the GFS stalls out over SW lousiana due to a building ridge to its north lol

Yea in my view, best to throw that run out. Best to stick to ensembles until we get a low. Would actually be surprised if it made it that far west in gulf

Well you cant feel one way about the GFS then feel another way about the GFS. The GFS model is the model that was all in on the Fla landfall.

[jfk08c]

And then the GFS stalls out over SW lousiana due to a building ridge to its north lol

Yea in my view, best to throw that run out. Best to stick to ensembles until we get a low. Would actually be surprised if it made it that far west in gulf

Well you cant feel one way about the GFS then feel another way about the GFS. The GFS model is the model that was all in on the Fla landfall.

They don't call it the Happy Hour run for nothing

[Weathertracker96]

And then the GFS stalls out over SW lousiana due to a building ridge to its north lol

Yea in my view, best to throw that run out. Best to stick to ensembles until we get a low. Would actually be surprised if it made it that far west in gulf

Well you cant feel one way about the GFS then feel another way about the GFS. The GFS model is the model that was all in on the Fla landfall.

What are you saying?
Anyways, I’ve been relying more on ensembles this whole time until a center forms. I’ve been following the advice of a Met I follow.

[TomballEd]

Euro ensemble means would not favor the Op Euro sub-tropical storm for Texas. Euro ensembles seem to offer 2 possibilities, one W into the BoC not likely to emerge, the other towards the E. Gulf, especially Florida. Not sure which is right, but I'd lean Florida.

[ThomasW]

Welcome back Hurricane Laura

https://i.ibb.co/WWcwdf4/gfs-mslp-pcpn-seus-39.png

Looking more like a CARLA with that size! Thankfully just happy hour...for now

[MetroMike]

I bet the 0Z run will be completely different from this one.

[WaveBreaking]

I bet the 0Z run will be completely different from this one.

IMO it’ll either double down on a sub-940 mbar doomsday run until the 06Z run, or it’ll show a disheveled mess that quickly gets sheared and yanked NE by a strong front.

[StPeteMike]

Yep, 0z will probably be back to the east and show the ridge almost non-existent with the trough coming in and picking it up.

I agree that I trust the ensembles at this point.

[TomballEd]

Yea in my view, best to throw that run out. Best to stick to ensembles until we get a low. Would actually be surprised if it made it that far west in gulf

Well you cant feel one way about the GFS then feel another way about the GFS. The GFS model is the model that was all in on the Fla landfall.

They don't call it the Happy Hour run for nothing

My understanding the 18Z was better than the 6Z. Neither had balloon sounding data, but they have plenty of ground measurements and remote sensing data. The 6Z has less data because they are fewer planes in the air sending back data. I'm not sure of that, but it is what I heard. Happy Hour may refer to the ~5pm time the 18Z run hits the streets.

[Stratton23]

Ensembles could also just as easily trend west on the 00z runs, until we have a closed low, nothing is set in stone, the entire gulf coast from texas to florida needs to be watching this

[TomballEd]

Ensemble support from the GFS ensembles for the op solution is nil.

[3090]

Yea in my view, best to throw that run out. Best to stick to ensembles until we get a low. Would actually be surprised if it made it that far west in gulf

Well you cant feel one way about the GFS then feel another way about the GFS. The GFS model is the model that was all in on the Fla landfall.

What are you saying?

Anyways, I’ve been relying more on ensembles this whole time until a center forms. I’ve been following the advice of a Met I follow.

When the GFS begins to lean to the EURO, in this case, more south initially and a NW end game, it sees something the EURO has been seeing. You take note. And operational model runs are not some useless model runs. They have merit.

[cajungal]

Why is it always Louisiana getting wiped off the map? Geez

[LAF92]

Ensemble support from the GFS ensembles for the op solution is nil.

The 18z GEFS ensembles have quite a bit more spread than the 12z ensembles

[jfk08c]

Well you cant feel one way about the GFS then feel another way about the GFS. The GFS model is the model that was all in on the Fla landfall.

What are you saying?

Anyways, I’ve been relying more on ensembles this whole time until a center forms. I’ve been following the advice of a Met I follow.

When the GFS begins to lean to the EURO, in this case, more south initially and a NW end game, it sees something the EURO has been seeing. You take note. And operational model runs are not some useless model runs. They have merit.

I don't think anyone is saying operational runs are useless. It's just that with no disturbance having formed yet, it's better to look at the range of possibilities and follow averages rather than using a single run that is just guessing formation location at this point

[jfk08c]

Ensemble support from the GFS ensembles for the op solution is nil.

The 18z GEFS ensembles have quite a bit more spread than the 12z ensembles

Definitely more spread but most are still cutting through Florida

[Stratton23]

After Looking at the 18z GEFS, its definitely more spread out in possible solutions compared to previous runs

[3090]

Why is it always Louisiana getting wiped off the map? Geez

Way too early in this event for saying such. Just follow the NHC pros. Message boards are interesting and can yet be stressful with all of the information being passed.

[jfk08c]

18z GFS Ensemble MSLP

[Steve]

Not to completely be that punk, but if anyone has been on desktop on this site for the last 15 or so years, my location has been “Not a Statecaster”. When I joined back in 2002 or so they used to have what they called wobble wars. Texas Jex found every reason to post why storm x was coming their way. Same thing for Louisiana Lou, Mississippi Motha and Sarasota Slim. Yes there are precedents for many situations. And yes there is climatology. And science as well. But it kind of gets annoying if someone is in a location and repeatedly uses that as an argument or justification for where a system or potential system might be headed. Whether I was in Florida, Alabama or Louisiana at the time, I always went the other way and made sure that my current location had zero bearing on the models or scenarios that maybe brought something closer to me. Everyone here is a storm geek else we wouldn’t be here. And we all know the anxiety and excitement that comes with having to face danger to ourselves, our loved ones and our properties. I guess I’m just asking for people to look at a bigger picture (which on this page they have).

The ensembles clearly aren’t any better in this situation from GFS 12z to GFS 18z. They are completely different outcomes. Even if a quality local NWS office like Slidell, Lake Charles or Miami picks up on a current model’s scenario so they can address it with those in their outlook area, we should all be able to filter that by situation. If it’s 2-3 days out from a landfall of a developed system, we should be able to recognize that and weight it for what it is just like we should be able to be skeptical of a not yet formed system in a general area we believe there might be one 10 days out and say that we think it’s coming our way because of whatever.

This particular scenario doesn’t have that many precedents for September 18th. Even Texas is in the game if a big high follows a trough that doesn’t pick this up.