Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[Steve]

ICOn is out to 156 on TT has it down in the central Bay of Campeche. There is a companion storm on the Pacific side which could be legit or could be part of a complicated genesis setup. It goes out to 180 hours (7.5 days) at 12z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=156

[Steve]

At 500mb it’s caught underneath a high and there’s a trough with the low centered around Utah.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=156

[robbielyn]

At 500mb it’s caught underneath a high and there’s a trough with the low centered around Utah.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=156

looks to be headed towards mexico/tx

[Steve]

Full run is in. It ends southeast of Brownsville but at a longitude slightly west of the TX/LA border. Sorry I’m on mobile so can’t mouse over the center coordinates.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=180

At 500mb the trough missed the connection so it likely would intensify south of the high pressure if it went out farther in time.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=180

[Steve]

Next up GFS then Canadian. GFS will go out to 15 days and Canadian 10 which should be about landfall.

[3090]

:D Simply said. Waaaaayyy to early in this event for any remote guess 1) iF ANYTHING WILL FORM….2) THE INTENSITY….3) THE TRACK.

Message boards are interesting but certainly can be stressful. All good though.

Stay calm and just keep alert. All there is to do at this time.

And of course; post your thoughts on this message board…

Gotta disagree here. When the NHC issues a 40% chance of development that means that it is not too early to make some early predictions. Cyclogenesis is forecasted to occur within that 5-7 day window, which is when models tend to become more accurate. At this stage we can start discussing at some level of accuracy general development regions, initial motion, and synoptic scale features. It's certainly too early to start predicting landfall locations, timing, or intensity beyond those 7 days.

Feel free to do so.

Everything at this point is pure guessing.

[3090]

At this time the guess is everything now is moving over to the western GOM.

[Pipelines182]

ICOn is out to 156 on TT has it down in the central Bay of Campeche. There is a companion storm on the Pacific side which could be legit or could be part of a complicated genesis setup. It goes out to 180 hours (7.5 days) at 12z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=156

I wonder how much those two systems could potentially impact each other, they're separated by the Sierra Madres. I would expect low level interactions would be impossible but maybe outflow impacts? Could they both just ventilate each other?

[TomballEd]

I get it is fun (unless you own a home) to latch onto every model run that hits your town, but a week or more away, it is just amusing to post an image of a Cat 4 hitting your town.


Those of us who already spent 5 days w/o electricity are looking for obvious and real reasons any mode run near us is likely wrong. Could be big, GEFS shows perfecr upper level conditions in the BoC and OHC is >100 kJ/cm^2 over most of the Gulf.

I suspect WxMan57 will say E. Gulf, and since he has the appropriate college degree and decades of doing this for a living, what he says, I'll tend to believe.

[Steve]

?

Who knows? I would say that in the ICON depiction at the end it may be feeding off the EPAC though that storm is still recognizable so possibly a feed channel off the Pacific.

[chaser1]

ICOn is out to 156 on TT has it down in the central Bay of Campeche. There is a companion storm on the Pacific side which could be legit or could be part of a complicated genesis setup. It goes out to 180 hours (7.5 days) at 12z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=156

I wonder how much those two systems could potentially impact each other, they're separated by the Sierra Madres. I would expect low level interactions would be impossible but maybe outflow impacts? Could they both just ventilate each other?

12 GFS is out to 126 hr's and i'm seeing shades of the goal posts moving back a bit. The EPAC low and W Caribbean Low seems to be part of the overall Gyre thus delaying development for the larger overall feature. Also as a sidenote, forget about ex-Gordon or the E. MDR wave coming off Africa. Seems that GFS is just not feeling them up to 126 hr's.

[chaser1]

12Z GFS has first < 1000 mb at 144 hrs. (997 mb in the NW Caribbean)

Last nights 0Z GFS reached < 1000 mb at 132 hr's (997 in the NW Caribbean)

[jfk08c]

Ridge coming in weaker @ 156hrs on latest GFS. Stretches from Texas to Florida but looks to be falling apart the past few frames

[chaser1]

Definitely a sharper trough dropping SSW from W. Virginia all the way toward N. GA is eroding the ridge. Also this run has the storm weaker then prior runs thus far and is at 993mb at 168 hrs. Looks like it's going to take off to the NE near Tampa/Cedar Key

[jfk08c]

Definitely a sharper trough dropping SSW from W. Virginia all the way toward N. GA is eroding the ridge. Also this run has the storm weaker then prior runs thus far and is at 993mb at 168 hrs. Looks like it's going to take off to the NE near Tampa/Cedar Key

From 174 to 192 it doesn't move. Just sitting in the bath water gathering up some juice

[chaser1]

Until it stalls LOL. Makes no sense. At 192 hr's, the storm is deepening but nearly stationary just north of Yucatan at 978 mb. Meanwhile, the trough has dug further south and become even broader. Due east motion to possibly come??

[tropicwatch]

Should have my home standby generator installed before anything gets here. Hopefully that means it will not come to the panhandle

[chaser1]

Wha?? 198 hr's and down to 973, but barely "nudges" east at the base of a large broad trough. Should be heading toward Ft. Myers with this steering in place LOL

[Frank P]

gonna bomb on Tampa Bay

[chaser1]

Should have my home standby generator installed before anything gets here. Hopefully that means it will not come to the panhandle

Except that we all know deep down, this is nothing but todays version of "story time" I still question whether we'll see a storm even develop in our basin from this event.