Disturbance in the Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic (Is Invest 96L)

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kevin
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Disturbance in the Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic (Is Invest 96L)

#1 Postby kevin » Thu Sep 19, 2024 2:28 am

A new lemon, this is the system to the west of Gordon's remnants. Wouldn't be surprised if this forms instead of Gordon and takes the H-name before the Caribbean system.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased tonight with a
well-defined area of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the
northwest of the remnants of Gordon. Environmental conditions appear
only marginally conducive, but some additional development of this
system is possible as it meanders over the open waters of the
central or western Subtropical Atlantic though early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


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Re: Disturbance in the Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic

#2 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Sep 19, 2024 6:57 am

Is Mother Nature really trying to find a way to get some random storm named before our WCAR disturbance forms, just so the latter gets the I name? :lol:
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Re: Disturbance in the Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic

#3 Postby WaveBreaking » Thu Sep 19, 2024 6:59 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Is Mother Nature really trying to find a way to get some random storm named before our WCAR disturbance forms, just so the latter gets the I name? :lol:


Same thing happened with Hermine and Ian so it wouldn’t surprise me :lol:
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Re: Disturbance in the Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic

#4 Postby ChrisH-UK » Thu Sep 19, 2024 7:26 am

Here's the area in question with the low level remains of Gordon. Now I think it won't develop into anything due to it remaining on the lower levels there's very little in terms of vorticity at 700mb and 500mb in the models and it never stacks up.

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Re: Disturbance in the Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic

#5 Postby Teban54 » Thu Sep 19, 2024 8:57 am

Does the fact that NHC is labeling the two AOIs (this at the remnants of Gordon) concurrently but separately mean that, should this one form, they're inclined to name it Helene? Especially now that ex-Gordon has been lowered to 20/30.
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Re: Disturbance in the Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic

#6 Postby MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS » Thu Sep 19, 2024 9:35 am

Teban54 wrote:Does the fact that NHC is labeling the two AOIs (this at the remnants of Gordon) concurrently but separately mean that, should this one form, they're inclined to name it Helene? Especially now that ex-Gordon has been lowered to 20/30.


If the remnants of Gordon reformed, it would be named Gordon again. This one would not be Gordon.
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Re: Disturbance in the Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic

#7 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:42 pm

2 PM:

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located about 750 miles southeast of
Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive, but some
development of this system is possible while it meanders over the
open waters of the central or western Subtropical Atlantic though
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: Disturbance in the Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic

#8 Postby MetroMike » Thu Sep 19, 2024 3:09 pm

12z GFS near the end of run is beyond words and may have to be censored for Florida.
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Re: Disturbance in the Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic

#9 Postby MetroMike » Thu Sep 19, 2024 6:36 pm

Nothing is a threat on the 18z
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Re: Disturbance in the Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic (Is Invest 96L)

#10 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 19, 2024 8:38 pm

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