Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[Steve]

Just another model run. EURO aligning with the ICON in western GOM.

I think one trend we can agree on is the delayed development and a somewhat consensus of the GFS, and EURO, a development in the SC GOM appears to be the current area for development. Where this goes and whatever this becomes are the next questions to be answered.

Excellent point. In no way would I discount the Euro and ICON in the western Gulf this year. Beryl and Francine from very far out showed some impressive modeling. But of course we need a system first.

[DunedinDave]

Crazy. We're at 21 pages here and we still have about 5-7 days before we even get a thunderstorm to pop up from this thing.

[ROCK]

Crazy. We're at 21 pages here and we still have about 5-7 days before we even get a thunderstorm to pop up from this thing.

That’s what makes this site so engaging. Along with some very smart folks on here. It’s the thrill of the analysis maybe..

[StormPyrate]

I have lived in Tampa for a few years, having moved here from New Orleans
Getting my feet under me trying to understand why Tampa is different from Nola and what needs to be watched.
Clearly it will take a unique path for a storm to direct hit Tampa
That GPS run could be the sort of path deviation it would take.

[Woofde]

I posted similar graphics during Francine, but the Gulf is still a crockpot of warmth. This is probably the last shot this season will have at a record breaking Gulf storm. It's on fire out there, very few clouds to shade it. Its unlikely to cool off at all beforehand.

This is going to be all about atmospheric conditions and how much time this storm has to get cooking.

[ConvergenceZone]

Crazy. We're at 21 pages here and we still have about 5-7 days before we even get a thunderstorm to pop up from this thing.

more like 3 to 4 days. In 7 days we should have a depression since we will be approaching the potential landfalling weekend.

[HurricaneBelle]

First acknowledgment of the potential disturbance by NWS Tampa in its afternoon AFD, probably in response to the 12Z GFS:

THE OTHER AREA THAT MODELS ARE
HINTING AT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND HAS A
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. NONE OF THESE
SYSTEMS POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO FLORIDA, BUT THE ONE IN THE
CARIBBEAN WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE COMING WEEK.

[DunedinDave]

Crazy. We're at 21 pages here and we still have about 5-7 days before we even get a thunderstorm to pop up from this thing.

more like 3 to 4 days. In 7 days we should have a depression since we will be approaching the potential landfalling weekend.

Yeah the first L I see on GFS is Tuesdays. Icon spinning Monday. So you’re prolly right. We’ll say 4-5 days.

[caneman]

I have lived in Tampa for a few years, having moved here from New Orleans
Getting my feet under me trying to understand why Tampa is different from Nola and what needs to be watched.
Clearly it will take a unique path for a storm to direct hit Tampa
That GPS run could be the sort of path deviation it would take.

While we haven't been hit by a major in a while, we get more than our fair share of t.s. and hurricane 1 type winds. I've lost power for days from Elena, Frances, Jeanne, Irma, Idalia, and Ian and I'm sure others. We are one of the top hit U.S. cities from tropical systems. So, have a generator. Always the bridesmaid but never the bride. Lol.

[Pipelines182]

It's really interesting how large of a storm all the models are developing, truly massive. I wonder what all the models are seeing that's making the storm so large.

[ROCK]

It's really interesting how large of a storm all the models are developing, truly massive. I wonder what all the models are seeing that's making the storm so large.

Ideal conditions aloft..SSTs…that would do it.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

The Tampa Bay thing, 50 years ago when I was a student in Catholic school I checked out a book from the school library about hurricanes written by a man from Tampa who had shot down a Japanese plane at Pearl Harbor. Anyway, he said Tampa seems to have a protective force field, he recalled several forecast misses and sudden weakening. But 50 years ago people in Tampa thought there was a magic field. Something to do with Native Americans, IIRC.

Of course, a big hurricane will hit Tampa Bay, but the frequency seems low.

I got interested in hurricanes first from my parents' stories of 1938, and then Hurricane Belle in 1976. My Dad wouldn't let me go outside for the eye.

Will the force field hold again?

It’s mainly because of the shape of the coast and the angle it has to come. Most storms that come from the south either take more of a harder right turn toward Port Charlotte or more of a gradual turn toward the big bend or Panhandle. Kinda like Jacksonville in that it’s gotta take that perfect angle which is tough given the coast’s shape.

The GFS track is the most likely way a cat 5 would hit TB because it comes more on an ENE track which btw is very rare in the Gulf…usually if a storm moves ENE in the gulf it’s a depression or weak storm. I’ve rarely seen a major Hurricane move ENE or due east in the central gulf. Closest I can think of is Wilma. And the
GFS track is a slightly further north version of Wilma.

Yes, the angle at which storms must approach to hit Tampa makes it relatively hard to hit. Charley, Wilma, and Ian were too far south, and Michael and Idalia were too far north. The 1921 storm is perhaps the most ideal kind of track a storm could take for a major Tampa disaster.

Tampa is not spanish, its Native seminole speak for "Sticks of Fire" , the City was actually originally Fort Brooke. And yes, mythology about a forcefield runs deep. Fun fact, we have a ton of UFO phenomena here, it is one of the most active hotspots on earth for seeing flying saucers or things that do not make sense in the Sky. We see crap all the time staring out at night at the Gulf of Mexico, Stuff going into and out of the ocean and unbelievable speeds and indeed, Congress has indicated this is a strange hotspot for "UAP" activity. More modern mythology centers around a UFO base off the coast which steers the storms away but its the same all in a line of mythology started by the Natives who believed the area was indeed protected.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

wierd triple post

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

Yes, the angle at which storms must approach to hit Tampa makes it relatively hard to hit. Charley, Wilma, and Ian were too far south, and Michael and Idalia were too far north. The 1921 storm is perhaps the most ideal kind of track a storm could take for a major Tampa disaster.

Tampa is not spanish, its Native seminole speak for "Sticks of Fire" , the City was actually originally Fort Brooke. And yes, mythology about a forcefield runs deep. Fun fact, we have a ton of UFO phenomena here, it is one of the most active hotspots on earth for seeing flying saucers or things that do not make sense in the Sky and according to Congressional whistleblowers, this is actually true because pilots report alot of anomalies in the area right off St Pete. We see crap all the time staring out at night at the Gulf of Mexico, Crap goes straight from space into the damn ocean and vice versa. More modern mythology centers around a UFO base off the coast which steers the storms away but its the same all in a line of mythology started by the Natives who did believe the area was indeed protected.

It reality its just Rare, we had one in 1938 or so that literally killed half my grandmothers classroom in Sulpher springs and made everyone homeless because of flooding and downed tree's, i have some of the photo's of the devastation in a photobook i inherited taken with old slate Blackpowder camera's. I wouldnt bet on any mythical "forcefield". Its cute tho to joke about. I still take these things serouisly

Correction, 1935 Labor Day hurricane ***

[ThomasW]

12z ECENS/EPS with fewer strong members, more in the EPAC, suggesting that the CAG may end up over Central America due to intense ridging.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro, didn't see it posted yet. Moving northward I think, but too few frames.

[ThomasW]

Barring the "AIFS", all models are pushing back development of the 0/40 at 12z. Wonder why? Maybe longer entanglement with the gyre, or some type of recognition that phantom vorticity was inflating solutions previously. Or could it be a fluke cycle

[Stratton23]

ThomasW most of the EPS members are still in the southern or central gulf, that other cluster is a seperate entity on the EPAC, its a different system, ridging isnt that strong on the EPS either

[AutoPenalti]

12z ECENS/EPS with fewer strong members, more in the EPAC, suggesting that the CAG may end up over Central America due to intense ridging.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157651392836677642/1286415172986077326/natl_43.png?ex=66edd2fd&is=66ec817d&hm=280220d30bcad65347e460c9d6eddb04a97dbeb50deddab3ed510505287f761d&

There's two different systems.

[ThomasW]

ThomasW most of the EPS members are still in the southern or central gulf, that other cluster is a seperate entity on the EPAC, its a different system, ridging isnt that strong on the EPS either

Development of those members is still delayed relative to 00z, with most suggesting formation around day 8 or 9. The EPAC system seems to develop from a piece of energy that comes off the gyre on the other side of Central America.