Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[cajungal]

I am starting to lean that maybe nothing will come out of this at all or definitely not what they were showing just a day ago.

[Pipelines182]

Problem is,a weak system wont upwell anything in the gulf, wont really cool off the water, i am thinking the models are over doing shear by a good bit, their will be shear, but not as much as what the GFS depicts, just have to wait and see where this disturbance begins to form

Clouds, rain and wind will absolutely cool off the gulf from at a time that solar insulation is insufficient for recovery. It won't be cold but it will be less hot and McNoldy's OHC graphic which is sitting at record highs would drop substantially. The northern gulf is already cooling down but any wind and rain would grease those skids big time. We need a slop storm for that very reason. BTW the eastern gulf never did return to its pre Debby temps...and that one happened in early August.

We should see some warming in the northern gulf in the short term, hot and sunny until the middle of next week.

[3090]

I am starting to lean that maybe nothing will come out of this at all or definitely not what they were showing just a day ago.

Would that be nice or what? We do not need any more destruction ANY where from hurricanes along the gulf coast. All it does is cause a lot of grief and aggravation along with loss of property and sometimes life. Not to mention; the insane cost of insurance premiums.

[cajungal]

I am starting to lean that maybe nothing will come out of this at all or definitely not what they were showing just a day ago.

Would that be nice or what? We do not need any more destruction ANY where from hurricanes along the gulf coast. All it does is cause a lot of grief and aggravation along with loss of property and sometimes life. Not to mention; the insane cost of insurance premiums.

Yes it would be amazing! My husband just tore down walls in our study last night down to the insulation because of floodwater from Francine.

[Ivanhater]

I am kind of seeing this as models coming into somewhat agreement on northern gulf coast.

GFS, Canadian, Euro AI...even icon and Euro seem to indicate a movement toward the northern gulf. It seems a matter of how strong

[Hypercane_Kyle]

No longer much model support for anything particularly intense. Looks weak and strung out.

[Pipelines182]

How often do we not even get a named storm when we have this much model consistency? I sure wouldn't want to bet on nothing at all forming here in the next week. Now whether or not we get a major is an entirely different story.

We have weather models to predict what we can't physically see or read with instruments. To disregard the weather models just because there's "nothing there yet" is disregarding the very purpose of the weather models to begin with.

[Pipelines182]

No longer much model support for anything particularly intense. Looks weak and strung out.

Landfall is still outside of accurate model range of 7ish days. GFS has gone from strong, to weak, to fairly strong, we'll see more bouncing around for awhile, too early to tell much of anything beyond that 7 day mark.

[3090]

I am kind of seeing this as models coming into somewhat agreement on northern gulf coast.

GFS, Canadian, Euro AI...even icon and Euro seem to indicate a movement toward the northern gulf. It seems a matter of how strong

I agree on the fact the GENERAL consensus is NGC with the models at THIS time. But it still is really just a very initial forecast. More so than previous but still not anything to hang your hat on.

[Stormlover70]

The more it hangs out in the southern gulf increases the threat to go ne towards florida. Just waiting for a front. The western gulf is closing fast per climatology.

[Steve]

ICON 12z takes a 997 TS into around Destin next Thursday night per Pivotal.

https://pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh ... mp&m=icon#

[mpic]

sphelps8681 the western gulf coast states are definitely not in the clear, i wouldn’t even rule out as far west as the middle- upper texas coast, climatology does favor a NE turn eventually though, but their have been many storms over the years to impact the western part of the gulf even in late september, ifs a very tricky and complex steering setup

I hope I don't jinx this whole thing. I just ordered a generator due to arrive next Wednesday and hope I will never have to use it lol.

[LadyBug72]

The more it hangs out in the southern gulf increases the threat to go ne towards florida. Just waiting for a front. The western gulf is closing fast per climatology.

This is a serious learning question here....Is there something other than fronts that help close the western gulf? Or is there something else that helps with the climatology of a closing western gulf?

[TomballEd]

The more it hangs out in the southern gulf increases the threat to go ne towards florida. Just waiting for a front. The western gulf is closing fast per climatology.

This is a serious learning question here....Is there something other than fronts that help close the western gulf? Or is there something else that helps with the climatology of a closing western gulf?

The STR starts sagging S, replacing the usual Easterlies over the N. Gulf with Westerlies. Winds from the West push the storms away from Texas towards Louisiana to Florida.

October 1949 and 1989 storms both came to Texas heading due N, an anomalously deep trough, probably w/ negative tilt, brought them from deep in the BoC to Texas.

[LadyBug72]

The more it hangs out in the southern gulf increases the threat to go ne towards florida. Just waiting for a front. The western gulf is closing fast per climatology.

This is a serious learning question here....Is there something other than fronts that help close the western gulf? Or is there something else that helps with the climatology of a closing western gulf?

The STR starts sagging S, replacing the usual Easterlies over the N. Gulf with Westerlies. Winds from the West push the storms away from Texas towards Louisiana to Florida.

October 1949 and 1989 storms both came to Texas heading due N, an anomalously deep trough, probably w/ negative tilt, brought them from deep in the BoC to Texas.

This helps so much! Thank you!

[Nederlander]

The more it hangs out in the southern gulf increases the threat to go ne towards florida. Just waiting for a front. The western gulf is closing fast per climatology.

Agree that western gulf is closing, but it all depends timing. If it misses the first trough and the ridge builds back then how strong is that versus the next approaching trough, etc... Models seem to be keying in on north central gulf (NOLA -- PCB), which makes the most sense to me, but a lot of time to wait and watch.

[kevin]

06z GFS develops a 1005 mb system by +96 hrs, I think the closest it has been so far in the timeframe. It then achieves 30 kt winds by +111 hrs.

[DunedinDave]

If this thing is going to get to cat 4 or cat 5 level, it needs to sit in the gulf for a while like the GFS had a day or two ago. If it’s just going to get swept up north by a trough and race N or NE, it will be moving too fast to develop and will prolly be fighting heavy winds. It will prolly be a lopsided system with the right portion of it giving off the worst weather like Debby. We may only end up with a TS or cat 1 from this when all is said and done.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

The more it hangs out in the southern gulf increases the threat to go ne towards florida. Just waiting for a front. The western gulf is closing fast per climatology.

This is a serious learning question here....Is there something other than fronts that help close the western gulf? Or is there something else that helps with the climatology of a closing western gulf?

2 other factors that I see that could have it not be as likely to go to Texas, beyond an approaching front:

1. Strength of storm. Stronger storms naturally go more directly poleward. Weaker systems are more affected by low level flow that usually is heading westward in the western Caribbean, especially in neutral and La Nina years.

2. The strength and location of the eastern ridge/Bermuda High. The ridge's size and strength of its "left border" ebbs and flows from the Atlantic to push into and over Florida and the eastern gulf. Later in the season, the Ridge can be eroded by repeated passing fronts moving west to east to the north or other Atlantic tropical systems influencing where that western border of the High is. Storms travel around the left edge of that periphery as they head north. A pathway north may open up by a weak or receding Ridge not blocking a poleward traveling storm. Later in the season, the ridge is less likely to span and protect the whole northern gulf from a poleward moving tropical storm.

[Jr0d]

I am kind of seeing this as models coming into somewhat agreement on northern gulf coast.

GFS, Canadian, Euro AI...even icon and Euro seem to indicate a movement toward the northern gulf. It seems a matter of how strong

Hopefully wxman57 is right about shear being a big inhibiting factor on strength.

We can remember storms with the origin and track that "over performed" but we forget the sheared tropical storms that were at times over hyped.

I certainly hope this is more hype than bite, but I do not like what some of the ensembles are suggesting in terms of the potential strength.