2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[REDHurricane]

Regardless of what models are saying could happen in the 7-14 day time frame, it's kind of shocking to see the MDR and Caribbean/Gulf (especially the MDR) completely barren of convective activity in the middle of September like this:

https://media4.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExNnRxNW5wY2RoNHlqcXZ6bWhibGlpeDVmMGpmbjZjajl2dWVpeHllZiZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/pPadHtZSUGdu8zHv4h/giphy.gif

I don’t agree Red. It’s literally predictable and not shocking at all. There’s supposed to be sinking and stable air across most of the Atlantic. We been in Phases 4, 5 and 6 of the MJO since July 25th. These aren’t upward motion phases for the majority of the Atlantic though there are some minor corridors. But overall those phases don’t lend to multiple storms across the Atlantic.

I don't know, given the consensus hyperactive preseason forecasts from the experts (and everyone here, myself and probably you included) I think it's definitely reasonable to deem it "kind of shocking" that the entire MDR, entire Caribbean, and entire Gulf were all apparently devoid of even the slightest sustained convection on September 18th, i.e. 8 days removed from the climatological peak of the hurricane season, even with an unfavorable MJO

[Teban54]

It's La La Land, but I guess people were too focused on the CAG to notice that the rest of 0z GFS is actually very active.

[AxaltaRacing24]

It's La La Land, but I guess people were too focused on the CAG to notice that the rest of 0z GFS is actually very active.

https://i.postimg.cc/GhzgYxT1/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh6-384.gif

After all that, this just might end up being another backloaded La Niña season.

[jlauderdal]

It's La La Land, but I guess people were too focused on the CAG to notice that the rest of 0z GFS is actually very active.

https://i.postimg.cc/GhzgYxT1/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh6-384.gif

Ridge building in behind the gyre system could be big trouble for the central atlantic system being modeled.

[Cachondo23]

One more shot in the MDR/CV season?

Maybe something like Tammy 2023 but earlier dates.

[Teban54]

One more shot in the MDR/CV season?

Maybe something like Tammy 2023 but earlier dates.

If long-range GFS is to be believed, it has been suggesting over the past few runs that we may get two CV hurricanes in the next 16 days.

[Steve]

Regardless of what models are saying could happen in the 7-14 day time frame, it's kind of shocking to see the MDR and Caribbean/Gulf (especially the MDR) completely barren of convective activity in the middle of September like this:

https://media4.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExNnRxNW5wY2RoNHlqcXZ6bWhibGlpeDVmMGpmbjZjajl2dWVpeHllZiZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/pPadHtZSUGdu8zHv4h/giphy.gif

I don’t agree Red. It’s literally predictable and not shocking at all. There’s supposed to be sinking and stable air across most of the Atlantic. We been in Phases 4, 5 and 6 of the MJO since July 25th. These aren’t upward motion phases for the majority of the Atlantic though there are some minor corridors. But overall those phases don’t lend to multiple storms across the Atlantic.

I don't know, given the consensus hyperactive preseason forecasts from the experts (and everyone here, myself and probably you included) I think it's definitely reasonable to deem it "kind of shocking" that the entire MDR, entire Caribbean, and entire Gulf were all apparently devoid of even the slightest sustained convection on September 18th, i.e. 8 days removed from the climatological peak of the hurricane season, even with an unfavorable MJO

We may find out from next week until possibly the middle of October. These things change frequently, but a bunch of models are showing a return to favorable phases we haven't been in since July (which isn't itself generally favorable). We'll have to check it the next several days to see if in fact we're heading for 8, 1 and/or 2. But for now:

NCPE (GEFS)


NCPB (NCEP bias-corrected)


CFSv2 (Climate Forecast System) <-- pretty bullish on the 9/28 - 10/15 period


JMAN (only goes out next 11 days)


ECMWF (15 days and is the least bullish besides the Australian)


Overall the first 2 weeks of October should feature at least a few named Atlantic storms if these forecasts continue.

[Kazmit]

Three systems at once.

[Steve]

Three systems at once.

https://i.ibb.co/vVc1TJ3/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-64.png

That's right in the time frame where the models see the MJO back in the Western Hemisphere. I haven't checked on CCKW's though so maybe there is an enhancing one coming across?

[KeysRedWine]

Long time lurker, first time poster. I must say that the last few days of GFS runs have gotten me worried. And then yesterdays (9/19) 12z GFS run finally pushed me to register on Storm2k. That was a GFS run for the ages for Florida! I also want to thank everyone for sharing their knowledge and posting the data on this forum.

[StPeteMike]

Y’all said it was quiet and Mother Nature heard load and clear.

Did any of you knock on wood after making such statements?!? lol

[Hammy]

Y’all said it was quiet and Mother Nature heard load and clear.

Did any of you knock on wood after making such statements?!? lol

I'm willing to bet not one of those MDR storms actually develops

It's La La Land, but I guess people were too focused on the CAG to notice that the rest of 0z GFS is actually very active.

https://i.postimg.cc/GhzgYxT1/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-fh6-384.gif

I'd seriously keep a very close eye on that CAG--as we saw in June, it seems displaced to the northeast compared to normal, and we had Alberto, an invest that could easily have been classified a depression, and then Chris (from a wave, but interacted with CAG in order to form) all in the span of two weeks, and conditions are far more favorable in the western Gulf now than they were in June, as we saw with Francine.

[Woofde]

I don’t agree Red. It’s literally predictable and not shocking at all. There’s supposed to be sinking and stable air across most of the Atlantic. We been in Phases 4, 5 and 6 of the MJO since July 25th. These aren’t upward motion phases for the majority of the Atlantic though there are some minor corridors. But overall those phases don’t lend to multiple storms across the Atlantic.

I don't know, given the consensus hyperactive preseason forecasts from the experts (and everyone here, myself and probably you included) I think it's definitely reasonable to deem it "kind of shocking" that the entire MDR, entire Caribbean, and entire Gulf were all apparently devoid of even the slightest sustained convection on September 18th, i.e. 8 days removed from the climatological peak of the hurricane season, even with an unfavorable MJO

We may find out from next week until possibly the middle of October. These things change frequently, but a bunch of models are showing a return to favorable phases we haven't been in since July (which isn't itself generally favorable). We'll have to check it the next several days to see if in fact we're heading for 8, 1 and/or 2. But for now:

NCPE (GEFS)


NCPB (NCEP bias-corrected)


CFSv2 (Climate Forecast System) <-- pretty bullish on the 9/28 - 10/15 period


JMAN (only goes out next 11 days)


ECMWF (15 days and is the least bullish besides the Australian)


Overall the first 2 weeks of October should feature at least a few named Atlantic storms if these forecasts continue.

Wow, yeah that would be a seriously amped up MJO signal. It's spiking instead of the usual peter off during 8,1,2. Maybe that'll be the kickstart this season requires for any major activity. We're fast approaching the end, but I'd say this period between the Gyre storm and maybe some MDR seeds taking advantage of the MJO could be it's best chance yet.

[WaveBreaking]

Happy Hour GFS never disappoints

[MetroMike]

Like I said earlier it shall be gone in the 0z run.

[Steve]

Like I said earlier it shall be gone in the 0z run.

It’s been a heavy Gulf year so far though. So no reason there couldn’t be a couple more hurricane hits and maybe a late October sheared TS. We’ve just been fortunate that nothing hit super strong as of yet. Season may well have more surprises in store and possibly sooner than later.

[cheezyWXguy]

Like I said earlier it shall be gone in the 0z run.

It’s been a heavy Gulf year so far though. So no reason there couldn’t be a couple more hurricane hits and maybe a late October sheared TS. We’ve just been fortunate that nothing hit super strong as of yet. Season may well have more surprises in store and possibly sooner than later.

Narrator: It wasn’t gone in the 0z run

0z gefs likes it too. And it looks like 2 other waves in the mdr. Long way out, so not much stock to put into it yet, but a back-loaded season could still be on the table after all.

[Teban54]

Unlike the operational runs, 18z GEFS actually trended upwards in intensity with the 0/40 MDR wave. In addition to the recurving members (with many making it a hurricane), a few members also show a ridge pushing the system W or WSW to north of Lesser Antilles, where it then becomes a formidable major. Obviously that's unlikely now, but 6z GEFS shows a few similar tracks, just with the wave behind it.

[SconnieCane]

18Z GFS had another major hurricane forming in the Caribbean and striking the Florida Gulf Coast, behind the potential one we've all been watching for days.

[MetroMike]

18Z GFS had another major hurricane forming in the Caribbean and striking the Florida Gulf Coast, behind the potential one we've all been watching for days.

And again the 0z GFS has another perhaps MH right up the spine of Fl about 10 days after.
Crazy! I bet it will change though.