ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 96, 2024092000, , BEST, 0, 246N, 553W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025, SPAWNINVEST, al772024 to al962024,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal962024.dat

[Category5Kaiju]

Uh-oh, looks like somebody's trying to steal the H name first!

[StPeteMike]

Uh-oh, looks like somebody's trying to steal the H name first!

Trying to make sure that if the Caribbean/Gulf storm becomes something massive, it can take the last remaining original I name to the retirement graveyard.

Though I would not be surprised if this one struggles to get beyond TD status before being ripped apart.

[KPILM]

So unless something changes drastically, right now this is probably going to shoot Northward?

[abajan]

800 AM:

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located
about 650 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands has
changed little in organization over the past several hours.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive
for some development of this system during the next couple of
days while it drifts northwestward at about 5 mph over the
central or western subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[ChrisH-UK]

96L is the remains of the lower circulation of Gordon on the left. On the right is another system that has been forming off the remains of Gordon's mid level circulation over the last 5 days after it got sheared off. Both of this are due to head north then a new wave comes off Africa that forms in to a tropical cyclone.

[LARanger]

Trying to make sure that if the Caribbean/Gulf storm becomes something massive, it can take the last remaining original I name to the retirement graveyard.

Much as I loathe the current naming system altogether, it dawned on me once that having it collapse under the weight of name retirements (thus causing more and more ludicrous names*) was perhaps the worst way for it to die, given the usual reasons for retirement requests.

(* That said, given how everything said in Latin has more gravitas, I can't help but think a Roman naming period would get more attention. "Hurricane Honorius approaches!" "Hurricane Caesar stabbed by dry air!" Et cetera.)

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1837475413322301613

[Teban54]

Looking pretty good.

[zhukm29]

There is a significant gulf system that is expected to form next week, we are on the H name, and a low in the central Atlantic is close to becoming a TC. Are we potentially going to extend the impactful I name storm streak to 6 years, and potentially the major I name landfall streak to 4?

[kevin]

Not sure what models are saying, but based on satellite trends I'd expect an increase in the TC formation chances.

[StPeteMike]

Window is getting narrower for any substantial development. I think the next 24 hours is all it has left before being ripped apart.

[Hammy]

This has probably been a tropical depression for the last 12 hours at this point.

[Ubuntwo]

This has all the makings of a (sheared) tropical cyclone

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like a borderline tropical storm. Better then Alberto or Christ.

[weeniepatrol]

It appears that NHC is no longer designating sheared tropical cyclones, which this is.

Frankly, if NHC wants to be more conservative, I understand, and that's their prerogative, but it would be preeeeetty nice to get some clarity from them. Even a memo issued at the start of the season indicating they will not be numbering and naming systems as readily would be extremely helpful, instead of us attempting to discern what they are doing via how they treat systems throughout the season...

[zhukm29]

Personally I think this is a TC. ASCAT showed a pretty well defined circulation and convection has been persisting for a day, even if sheared. Is the only reason they are not designating this because the models think it won't last long? Certainly a drastic change from previous seasons - will certainly make the pre-season predictions look a lot worse because we've had quite a few shortie candidates that were ignored this year...

[REDHurricane]

Personally I think this is a TC. ASCAT showed a pretty well defined circulation and convection has been persisting for a day, even if sheared. Is the only reason they are not designating this because the models think it won't last long? Certainly a drastic change from previous seasons - will certainly make the pre-season predictions look a lot worse because we've had quite a few shortie candidates that were ignored this year... https://i.ibb.co/F56hP1y/goes16-ir-96-L-202409212025.gif

They're probably trying to prevent the "I" curse from happening again, can't really blame them to be honest

[Torgo]

Personally I think this is a TC. ASCAT showed a pretty well defined circulation and convection has been persisting for a day, even if sheared. Is the only reason they are not designating this because the models think it won't last long? Certainly a drastic change from previous seasons - will certainly make the pre-season predictions look a lot worse because we've had quite a few shortie candidates that were ignored this year... https://i.ibb.co/F56hP1y/goes16-ir-96-L-202409212025.gif

They're probably trying to prevent the "I" curse from happening again, can't really blame them to be honest

Anybody in the NHC who would let nonsense like that affect their decisions should resign immediately.