Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[Steve]

While we are at it, WV shows what I think is a mid level swirl to the north of the convection. It shows up on visible with the SW shear on the clouds north of the convection. Ain’t nothing forming until this backs off SW and gets replaced by ridging.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

[TomballEd]

More likely Wednesday or Thursday, but this could be a storm by late Tuesday. That leaves four days of watching the various model runs and choosing a favorite landfall location and intensity.

[floridasun]

so area need watch this area iis from Myers, Florida to houston tx ? or only from big bend to new Orlean?

[StPeteMike]

Off topic, but the chatter yesterday about the longest pre-invest thread made me look. It's not pre-Francine contrary to the popular belief. Pre-Nicole in 2010 had 1,461 posts/74 pages (!) before being designated as invest 96L. It was a SFL model storm which ended up peaking as a 40kt tropical storm dissipating after crossing Cuba. We've got a ways to go with this one.

I’ll raise you one visible satellite of the area featuring a nice outflow boundary.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis_swir

Can see what is the likely issues with the current models, IMO, is the numerous vortices on both sides of CA. You got one just off the El Salvador coast, another the southeast there, and about two off of Honduras in the Caribbean.

It’s been a beaten down horse, but we will not know until something can gain dominance with the CAG and the models can latch onto one thing instead of struggling with 3.

[StPeteMike]

so area need watch this area iis from Myers, Florida to houston tx ? or only from big bend to new Orlean?

All of the Gulf Coast, except maybe Brownsville area. But until we have a storm and it’s in the gulf or about to enter the gulf, it’s hard to say. We’re still 3 days from something getting close to the GoM.

[jlauderdal]

so area need watch this area iis from Myers, Florida to houston tx ? or only from big bend to new Orlean?

Fort Myers to Mobile but a big storm so north and east well away on alert

[3090]

so area need watch this area iis from Myers, Florida to houston tx ? or only from big bend to new Orlean?

Fort Myers to Mobile but a big storm so north and east well away on alert

Ft Myers to Mobile?? How anyone can narrow down an area with NOTHING is a mystery.

[Steve]

Off topic, but the chatter yesterday about the longest pre-invest thread made me look. It's not pre-Francine contrary to the popular belief. Pre-Nicole in 2010 had 1,461 posts/74 pages (!) before being designated as invest 96L. It was a SFL model storm which ended up peaking as a 40kt tropical storm dissipating after crossing Cuba. We've got a ways to go with this one.

I’ll raise you one visible satellite of the area featuring a nice outflow boundary.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis_swir

Can see what is the likely issues with the current models, IMO, is the numerous vortices on both sides of CA. You got one just off the El Salvador coast, another the southeast there, and about two off of Honduras in the Caribbean.

It’s been a beaten down horse, but we will not know until something can gain dominance with the CAG and the models can latch onto one thing instead of struggling with 3.

That’s right Mike and why I’ve mostly stuck to discussing the model outputs as they were released. There was always going to be a wide range of possibilities. It’s narrowing down as we get closer. The players on the field are the low north of the disturbance, a big high over the south and the upper low over the 4 corners as well as that trough you can see coming into Washington state.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

[TomballEd]

While we are at it, WV shows what I think is a mid level swirl to the north of the convection. It shows up on visible with the SW shear on the clouds north of the convection. Ain’t nothing forming until this backs off SW and gets replaced by ridging.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

I believe that is the trough that is supposed to help fire up the convection in the Caribbean that probably develops into a TC. It is a needed trigger for convective initiation.

[Steve]

so area need watch this area iis from Myers, Florida to houston tx ? or only from big bend to new Orlean?

Fort Myers to Mobile but a big storm so north and east well away on alert

Ft Myers to Mobile?? How anyone can narrow down an area with NOTHING is a mystery.

Anyone can guess. I think more Plaquemines Parish to Dixie County with an emphasis on Harrison Co. MS to Apalachicola. That’s based on setup which certainly will evolve next week.

[Steve]

While we are at it, WV shows what I think is a mid level swirl to the north of the convection. It shows up on visible with the SW shear on the clouds north of the convection. Ain’t nothing forming until this backs off SW and gets replaced by ridging.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

I believe that is the trough that is supposed to help fire up the convection in the Caribbean that probably develops into a TC. It is a needed trigger for convective initiation.

Yeah but pattern has to reverse.

[jlauderdal]

so area need watch this area iis from Myers, Florida to houston tx ? or only from big bend to new Orlean?

Fort Myers to Mobile but a big storm so north and east well away on alert

Ft Myers to Mobile?? How anyone can narrow down an area with NOTHING is a mystery.

I will narrow it more tomorrow, most likely on the western side.

[TomballEd]

Quick glance at GFS, Euro and Canadian ensemble conus heights, this getting to the Upper Texas Coast would require Divine intervention. Mid level NW flow over the NW Gulf is not how Caribbean storms reach Texas. Impossible, no, extremely unlikely, yes. Not a single Euro or GFS ensemble model has a Texas landfall. One of the GEFS members tries, but the system hooks beyond a 90 degree right turn before it gets close. Even cooler is the lone EPS member that hooks a hard left before it gets to Texas.

I don't think the ensembles are that lost on what the 500 mb pattern will be in a week. Enough ECENS still have landfalls further W than Florida that I wouldn't rule out a landfall as far W as Cocodrie, where a ginat horsefly bit me while I was changing a tire. Terrebonne Parish roads are bad enough to blow tires.

[Blown Away]

12z ECENS



ECENS from 00z to 12z…

[floridasun]

Fort Myers to Mobile but a big storm so north and east well away on alert

Ft Myers to Mobile?? How anyone can narrow down an area with NOTHING is a mystery.

I will narrow it more tomorrow, most likely on the western side.

western side?

[MarioProtVI]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/90sDfpjq/IMG-0263.jpg [/url]
12z ECENS

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Vvz8W0BH/IMG-0264.jpg [/url]

ECENS from 00z to 12z…

Definitely a downtick in intensity

[Steve]

Ft Myers to Mobile?? How anyone can narrow down an area with NOTHING is a mystery.

I will narrow it more tomorrow, most likely on the western side.

western side?

Sun how you doing with that transplant?
——————
18z ICON with weaker EPAC action than 12z. Only a slight 1007mb low in the Caribbean at 57 hours though.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2118&fh=57

[Weathertracker96]

I don't know if its been posted but the Euro- AI shifted east to near the big bend of FL. Still know we have no center so not surprised the models are jumping around.

[jlauderdal]

Ft Myers to Mobile?? How anyone can narrow down an area with NOTHING is a mystery.

I will narrow it more tomorrow, most likely on the western side.

western side?

I will move my target east of mobile, will see.

[floridasun]

I will narrow it more tomorrow, most likely on the western side.

western side?

Sun how you doing with that transplant?
——————
18z ICON with weaker EPAC action than 12z. Only a slight 1007mb low in the Caribbean at 57 hours though.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2118&fh=57

good blood test coming out good now almost 6 months