Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)
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Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)
h126 953mb south of PC
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)
Yup, looks like the recent GFS has an intensifying hurricane that travels through the Yucatan Channel, kind of like a certain other storm that happened 6 years ago.
I wonder if the persistent convection we're seeing in real-time down in the WCAR has been fed into this model, so it has adjusted its prognosis accordingly.
I wonder if the persistent convection we're seeing in real-time down in the WCAR has been fed into this model, so it has adjusted its prognosis accordingly.
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Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)
So its either going to be a weak sloppy sheared system, or a stronger hurricane lol, no in between options here with the models lol
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Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)
h132 953mb heading for the Big Bend area
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Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)
Inland at the Big Bend area 953mb, and forward motion is accelerating NE
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Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)
Real buoy observations south of Jamaica registered a 1005 mb low passing so there may be a center near 15N -78w forming as we speak.
High pressure building over the area so if it shoots the channel it could be the GFS major
High pressure building over the area so if it shoots the channel it could be the GFS major

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- FLpanhandle91
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Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)
Tough to prepare for these types of storms when the difference in longitude between Pensacola and Naples is only 5.5 degrees.
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Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)
GFS clearly saw the thread was getting a bit boring and decided to spice it up again. In all seriousness, this one is a bit worrying as (if I understand correctly) this model run has some more recent data ingested into it so it might be more accurate than previous runs. We're 'still' about 2 days away from a TD according to this run so there's still many runs for things to change and they surely will. Very interested to see if other models will also start trending more like this GFS run with new data or whether this was just a coincidence.
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Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)
For the sake of the reader, please don’t post every time a new hour comes in. A whole page of what the pressure is at each hour is aggravating and unhelpful.
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Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)
Thought I'd post this here as it's relevant. You can clearly see the loop current on the MPI map as a elongated sub-880 mbar section stretching almost all the way to Florida
. I know that at this point everyone's probably already aware of this, but in terms of MPI this potential storm has nuclear fuel to work with.



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Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)
wx98 wrote:For the sake of the reader, please don’t post every time a new hour comes in. A whole page of what the pressure is at each hour is aggravating and unhelpful.
To each his own. I appreciate it.
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Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)
GFS will probably have heading to Tampa on its next run.
I don’t trust it one bit.
I don’t trust it one bit.
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)
caneman wrote:wx98 wrote:For the sake of the reader, please don’t post every time a new hour comes in. A whole page of what the pressure is at each hour is aggravating and unhelpful.
To each his own. I appreciate it.
I actually appreciate it as well.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)
GFS will probably have heading to Tampa on its next run.
I don’t trust it one bit.
I don’t trust it one bit.
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Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)
eastcoastFL wrote:caneman wrote:wx98 wrote:For the sake of the reader, please don’t post every time a new hour comes in. A whole page of what the pressure is at each hour is aggravating and unhelpful.
To each his own. I appreciate it.
I actually appreciate it as well.
The information is more easily found and understood by visiting an actual model page than trying to deduce what is being typed bit by bit, but okay….
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Re: Area of low pressure to develop over the western Caribbean sea (0/60)
Stormcenter wrote:GFS will probably have heading to Tampa on its next run.
I don’t trust it one bit.
Another 50 miles east and the 18Z GFS would have been a major problem for Tampa Bay area. Even with the current run I wouldn't be surprised to have flooding issues and storm surge 2-4 ft
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