Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[jfk08c]

Canadian and European seem to be the in the most agreement, with the GFS being an outlier. IF the latest Canadian plays out we'll probably get another unnamed PTC out of this and not much more.

If you throw the Euro AI in with them, it has basically the exact same landfall location as the latest GFS, albeit a little weaker

[Blown Away]

Canadian and European seem to be the in the most agreement, with the GFS being an outlier. IF the latest Canadian plays out we'll probably get another unnamed PTC out of this and not much more.

CMC has been adjusting E a few hundred miles each of its past few runs…

[Steve]

Changing the gen oil tomorrow and starting the slow build up of Ethanol free fuel. I never take lightly a Fall Low South and West of me. Especially with that low shear forecast and good ventilation.

Good to see you.

[MetroMike]

It's hard to imagine we don't even have an invest and the TC could hit the gulf coast before the week is over.
Quite a dicey situation for the NHC.

[TomballEd]

Still a smidge early to lock in on one model or even one model run. One comment about the ICON run, someone said they think a hard right turn in the Gulf seems wrong, looking at the 500 mb pattern, whether it gets into the Gulf N of the BoC or the E. Gulf, it will eventually get caught by that trough even though the ICON and the GFS had pretty significant differences on the upper air pattern. Landfall locations close to each other, as is intensity, even if they take different paths at different times, and similar intensities. Ensembles are still the best tool, and even randomly tweaking various initial conditions may not capture where the actual center forms.

Free GFS ensembles on Tropical Tidbits only out to 132 hours, but there is still a spread, but Florida looks like it gets most of the landfalls with some members still offshore. There will be at least a day's worth of delta on the arrival time of the system, with the earliest landfalls very early Thursday.

[Blown Away]

I do find it interesting that most of the convection and rotation is occurring to the E of the potential development area…

[Blown Away]

00z ICON… Large shift E from 12z near LA now in line with GFS near FL Big Bend…

[MetroMike]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/k5KDyWF9/icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh48-180.gif [/url]

00z ICON… Large shift E from 12z near LA now in line with GFS near FL Big Bend…

Not an unusual track for this time of year given current set-up

[Blown Away]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/k5KDyWF9/icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh48-180.gif [/url]

00z ICON… Large shift E from 12z near LA now in line with GFS near FL Big Bend…

Not an unusual track for this time of year given current set-up

I do think the large W swing into Central GOM is unusual, I think the likely scenario now is a sharper turn more in line with climatology… JMHO

[psyclone]

That's a wild shift in the models. Who knows what they will show in 24 hours.

[CrazyC83]

It seems that a stronger storm is farther east and a weaker storm is farther west?

Despite being 0% for the next 2 days, I'd tag it as 97L ASAP, since we need the model runs as the thinking is that this could be a quick-hitter.

[Steve]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/k5KDyWF9/icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh48-180.gif [/url]

00z ICON… Large shift E from 12z near LA now in line with GFS near FL Big Bend…

Not an unusual track for this time of year given current set-up

No but that pressure is way low from what we’d typically see in that area. There might have been a couple systems, if that, in the last 200 years that got into the 940’s and hit the big bend. Idalia got to 950 (I think?) last year and was historic. This would be in that range back to back years which would be unprecedented. Not saying it can’t happen but it’s suspect at 949.

[TomballEd]

That's a wild shift in the models. Who knows what they will show in 24 hours.

I'll trust the models more after Monday's recon (listed as possible for the succeeding day on tomorrow's POD, but I'm thinking very likely). But even if the GFS and ICON are days different and take very different paths, they do get to about the same place with about the same intensity.

[Blown Away]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/k5KDyWF9/icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh48-180.gif [/url]

00z ICON… Large shift E from 12z near LA now in line with GFS near FL Big Bend…

Not an unusual track for this time of year given current set-up

No but that pressure is way low from what we’d typically see in that area. There might have been a couple systems, if that, in the last 200 years that got into the 940’s and hit the big bend. Idalia got to 950 (I think?) last year and was historic. This would be in that range back to back years which would be unprecedented. Not saying it can’t happen but it’s suspect at 949.

Agree, to see that pressure in the area between Cedar Key to Appalachicola is eye opening, tells me conditions could be really good… Even though Big Bend area has had a few hits recently, it’s still a very rare location for hurricane landfall… I’d expect a trend W of Panama City or Ft Myers to the S, that’s what climatology says…

[psyclone]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/k5KDyWF9/icon-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh48-180.gif [/url]

00z ICON… Large shift E from 12z near LA now in line with GFS near FL Big Bend…

Not an unusual track for this time of year given current set-up

No but that pressure is way low from what we’d typically see in that area. There might have been a couple systems, if that, in the last 200 years that got into the 940’s and hit the big bend. Idalia got to 950 (I think?) last year and was historic. This would be in that range back to back years which would be unprecedented. Not saying it can’t happen but it’s suspect at 949.

I'd agree but were it to happen this would be the set up. A long track through the gulf that has maxed ohc. This area catches early and late slop storms more frequently. This could be a rare peak season strike where such an intensity isn't far fetched

[Steve]

Not an unusual track for this time of year given current set-up

No but that pressure is way low from what we’d typically see in that area. There might have been a couple systems, if that, in the last 200 years that got into the 940’s and hit the big bend. Idalia got to 950 (I think?) last year and was historic. This would be in that range back to back years which would be unprecedented. Not saying it can’t happen but it’s suspect at 949.

Agree, to see that pressure in the area between Cedar Key to Appalachicola is eye opening, tells me conditions could be really good… Even though Big Bend area has had a few hits recently, it’s still a very rare location for hurricane landfall… I’d expect a trend W of Panama City or Ft Myers to the S, that’s what climatology says…

Yeah. I said it yesterday but I don’t think the surprises are done yet.

[Steve]

Not an unusual track for this time of year given current set-up

No but that pressure is way low from what we’d typically see in that area. There might have been a couple systems, if that, in the last 200 years that got into the 940’s and hit the big bend. Idalia got to 950 (I think?) last year and was historic. This would be in that range back to back years which would be unprecedented. Not saying it can’t happen but it’s suspect at 949.

I'd agree but were it to happen this would be the set up. A long track through the gulf that has maxed ohc. This area catches early and late slop storms more frequently. This could be a rare peak season strike where such an intensity isn't far fetched

Moving NE against SW shear that’s bound to be there from/out front of the trough makes it possible. We’ve seen that as recently as a couple of weeks ago with Francine and of course slightly different flow but Michael among others. If ICON is right, 970’s/Cat 2 seems more likely. But as everyone says - the North American continent has been around a long time and we haven’t. So we really don’t know what extremes are reachable. And just last year…

[redingtonbeach]

Despite being 0% for the next 2 days, I'd tag it as 97L ASAP, since we need the model runs as the thinking is that this could be a quick-hitter.

Should have already been tagged. Agree. Having a senior at Uf and watching the public schools making dangerous last minute decisions this year already worries me a bit with this storm. With Gainesville all but certain to see some wrath from this storm, and all the brand new freshmen who just hit campus and 70% of the students living off campus mostly in flood zone relic shacks, somebody needs to get their act together in a hurry. Last time the university cancelled classes students stayed put because classes were cancelled too late and many didn’t even know they didn’t have to go in for exams or classes. Very dangerous setup.

[redingtonbeach]

Despite being 0% for the next 2 days, I'd tag it as 97L ASAP, since we need the model runs as the thinking is that this could be a quick-hitter.

Should have already been tagged. Agree. Having a senior at UF and watching the public schools making dangerous last minute decisions this year already worries me a bit with this storm. With Gainesville all but certain to see some wrath from this storm, and all the brand new freshmen who just hit campus and 70% of the students living off campus mostly in flood zone relic shacks, somebody needs to get their act together in a hurry. Last time the university cancelled classes students stayed put because classes were cancelled too late and many didn’t even know they didn’t have to go in for exams or classes. Very dangerous setup.

[redingtonbeach]

Despite being 0% for the next 2 days, I'd tag it as 97L ASAP, since we need the model runs as the thinking is that this could be a quick-hitter.

Should have already been tagged. Agree. Having a senior at UF and watching the public schools making dangerous last minute decisions this year already worries me a bit with this storm. With Gainesville all but certain to see some wrath from this storm, and all the brand new freshmen who just hit campus and 70% of the students living off campus mostly in flood zone relic shacks, somebody needs to get their act together in a hurry. Last time the university cancelled classes students stayed put because classes were cancelled too late and many didn’t even know they didn’t have to go in for exams or classes. Very dangerous setup, especially with the increasing intensity modeling.