Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[3090]

Let's hope this 00Z GFS was a fluke, no bueno for the Tampa Bay area being on the east side of that:

https://i.postimg.cc/8PfT3MJf/gfs-mslp-wind-seus-fh84-126.gif

This would be catastrophic!

A major anywhere along the gulf coast would be catastrophic. Imagine a hit on new orleans. Below sea level city.

[GCANE]

Shear dropping east of Nicaragua. Still strong NE of Honduras.
Shear gradients many times can slowly spin up a TC.

[StPeteMike]

A more seasonal poster/met might help me here. Will the 12z runs incorporate where the NHC has placed the X or is it a non factor?

[GCANE]

MIMIC-TPW clearly showing the flow of unstable air from the EPAC into the W Carib.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

Also, the east to west low-level winds pile up along the shore of Nicaragua creating an area of LL convergence.
Likely area of development will be the somewhere around the Hon/Nic border.

[Blown Away]

06z GEFS… How far N and W before the NE turn in the central GOM will likely determine if it is a NGOM or FL W Coast event…

[tropicwatch]

Any thoughts on what the effect of 94E on the Gulf/Caribbean might be.

[StPeteMike]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/R0MSPT31/IMG-0283.jpg [/url]

06z GEFS… How far N and W before the NE turn in the central GOM will likely determine if it is a NGOM or FL W Coast event…

Is the intensity of the storm also a factor? My perception, seems like a stronger storm feels the trough more and goes NE and a weaker storm doesn’t and continues N.

FWIW, temps in Atlanta are still forecasted to drop due to the trough coming through by Thursday. Why is why I’m still skeptical of some of the models showing it still west of there by Friday.

[StPeteMike]

Any thoughts on what the effect of 94E on the Gulf/Caribbean might be.

https://tropicwatch.info/pacific092220241244.png

Not much. It’s expected to be a smaller storm compared to this one. Think that’s why the spaghetti plots show it being yanked to the east/NE.

[Steve]

A more seasonal poster/met might help me here. Will the 12z runs incorporate where the NHC has placed the X or is it a non factor?

Sometimes. Hurricane models are more based on initial conditions where a center is. But not always. Sometimes we get random initializations where a given model can be north east south or west of where a center is. Those can be frustrating if you’re waiting on them to run and they end up being useless (happens with globals as well). They won’t run hurricane models until there is an invest.

06z ICON is 985mb and strengthening what I think is 200 miles south of Pascagoula.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 206&fh=120

Cut off low is a little farther east in eastern Oklahoma from the 00z run. In this scenario it can only get so far east before it gets caught. It ends at 120 and appears to want to hook a little toward the NE. But as you can see from 500mb, it’s eventually going to correct north or NNW. Looks like landfall would be somewhere between Baldwin County, AL and Okaloosa Co, Fl if the run went farther out than 120. We will see in 2 hours what the 12z does. /IF/ the trough cuts off a low in the plains, this is much more realistic than what the GFS had been hinting at mid and late week with a back door trough from the NE picking it up. The east part of the NC Gulf from Gulfport over to 30A would be on high alert if it’s telegraphing a solution with a narrower Gulf Shores to Destin landfall more likely and possibly strengthening since the hurricane would be in an upward motion quadrant (entrance to the jet) relative to the cut off low.

Here’s 500mb
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 206&fh=120

[Steve]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/R0MSPT31/IMG-0283.jpg [/url]

06z GEFS… How far N and W before the NE turn in the central GOM will likely determine if it is a NGOM or FL W Coast event…

Blown - I’m not sure we’re getting a NE turn with this system. I just woke up and only looked at ICON at 500. But it doesn’t depict a fade. It would be a more northern lift and eventually get pinwheeeled into the cut off. That’s also somewhat depicted in the GEFS ensemble plots a few posts up. Look how those tracks go once inland. We are used to more parabolic tracks when storms hit the Gulf. But regional patterns can bring those left hooks - specifically blocking highs to the north or in this case a cutoff low to the NW. I’m going look at 06 GFS to see it in comparison.

[Steve]

Yeah so GFS is relatively similar to ICON at 6z though it has the cutoff dropping toward Dallas. Notice how (hit play obviously) after landfall the hurricane goes due north through Alabama and then hooks left toward Memphis before merging.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 206&fh=120

[MHC Tracking]

We have beaten Francine's record for the longest "pre-invest" thread.

[toad strangler]

looking at the latest ensembles I’d have to give Apalachicola to Cedar Key, the greatest odds of seeing this come in. Sorry, iCyclone lol

[MHC Tracking]

looking at the latest ensembles I’d have to give Apalachicola to Cedar Key, the greatest odds of seeing this come in. Sorry, iCyclone lol

Was thinking more Pensacola to Panama City Beach with the latest trough trends, although it's common in NHEM trough interactions for a significant deviation east of forrecast to occur (saw this with Ian, Francine).

[Hypercane_Kyle]

looking at the latest ensembles I’d have to give Apalachicola to Cedar Key, the greatest odds of seeing this come in. Sorry, iCyclone lol

Yeah but it's all going to depend on where that LLC develops... remember how Ian was showing at one point a similar area.

[toad strangler]

looking at the latest ensembles I’d have to give Apalachicola to Cedar Key, the greatest odds of seeing this come in. Sorry, iCyclone lol

Yeah but it's all going to depend on where that LLC develops... remember how Ian was showing at one point a similar area.

My context is the the 6Z ensembles. Always up for change for sure

[boca]

Is that area SE of Jamaica a separate area or is it that big of an area?

[sponger]

Any severe hit on Florida will accelerate the insurance crisis and real estate collapse. My insurance was 800 a year three years ago. It is 2700 now with estimates of heading to 7-10K per year. We are in big big trouble!

[xironman]

Nascent MLC, you can see the inflow from the EPAC across the isthmus that Gcane mentioned

[Steve]

looking at the latest ensembles I’d have to give Apalachicola to Cedar Key, the greatest odds of seeing this come in. Sorry, iCyclone lol

Yeah but it's all going to depend on where that LLC develops... remember how Ian was showing at one point a similar area.

My context is the the 6Z ensembles. Always up for change for sure

Ensembles may be overdoing it with those eastern runs or they may be predictive. It’s coming down to what happens with that trough split in the plains imho. If it stays a v trough and progresses, eastern ensembles hinted at that solution and were predictive. If it cuts off, probably not so much.