Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[floridasun]

hard to say were low will form it big mess in nw carribbean we have big blob by Jamaica and small one east of Honduras witch area will have low form is question

[aspen]

When do yall think we will see an invest?
seems a tad overdue

Perhaps we haven’t gotten an invest because the 48hr development chances are still low (although they should be bumped up to 40% IMO).

[Steve]

As anticipated from the upper pattern, ICON landfalls in Panama City (Bay Co) at 984 about 4am Friday morning. So Cat 1 there. Lots of weather for the W Coast as well.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=117

Next up GFS then CMC

[GCANE]

Convection firing off the Hon/Nic border feeding off a High Theta-e Ridge. This may go for a while.

[Blown Away]

ICON trending E and faster targeting Panhandle…

[StormPyrate]

Where is Levi when ya need him lol

[Steve]

Convection firing off the Hon/Nic border feeding off a High Theta-e Ridge. This may go for a while.

GFS has a 1002mb low there in 24 hours. Will it blow it up into a strong one this run?

[StPeteMike]

As anticipated from the upper pattern, ICON landfalls in Panama City (Bay Co) at 984 about 4am Friday morning. So Cat 1 there. Lots of weather for the W Coast as well.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=117

Next up GFS then CMC

Wager GFS still shows the eastern version with a Big Bend/Citrus County landfall. Maybe I’ll be wrong.

[wzrgirl1]

Can someone answer these questions please?

1) Why does a Gyre storm take longer to form?
2) What are some other famous storms that originated this way?

Thanks.

[Steve]

As anticipated from the upper pattern, ICON landfalls in Panama City (Bay Co) at 984 about 4am Friday morning. So Cat 1 there. Lots of weather for the W Coast as well.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=117

Next up GFS then CMC

Wager GFS still shows the eastern version with a Big Bend/Citrus County landfall. Maybe I’ll be wrong.

It’s also much stronger at 24 hours so it might. I’m waiting to compare the upper pattern which all of these are likely to do better with than a developing storm.

[ThunderForce]

I know hurricanes are a general rule of life living on the Gulf Coast, but I really wish this would fizzle out so no one gets hurt or receives any damage to their properties. The constant string of hurricanes impacting somewhere on the Gulf Coast in particular these past 6 years or so is getting really old.

[StormPyrate]

that blob south of Jamaica is showing a tad more spin to it.
That area would lend to more of an Ian track

[Stormlover70]

12z icon is much faster than 0z with a Friday landfall near panama city beach. (0z was Sunday landfall near the Big Bend near alligator point) Still want to call out there's no real system in the W. Carib yet though.

https://i.imgur.com/INpR8r3.png

I will take 45 mph winds anytime but I really think models will shift east unfortunately. My arthritis is acting up just like before irma.

Irma did not form in this part of the basin, would be tough to get that track

talking about before a storm. I am well aware where Irma was.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Mike must be awfully busy right now. I haven't seen any posts from wxman57 in like 4 days! I would love to see what he is thinking today.

[DunedinDave]

Looks like 12z GFS on board with a center forming more to the east. Directly SSE of isle of Youth compared to before which was more under the west tip.

[kevin]

12z GFS already has a 994 mbar TC 48 hours from now. I expect the 10% number will increase quite a bit later today.

[Poonwalker]

The big player here will be intensity. A strong or rapidly intensifying storm will have a more north easterly trajectory as indicated in the initial GFS modeling a couple days ago. Weaker or slower developing system might land closer to the NO or panhandle areas.

[StormPyrate]

I will take 45 mph winds anytime but I really think models will shift east unfortunately. My arthritis is acting up just like before irma.

Irma did not form in this part of the basin, would be tough to get that track

talking about before a storm. I am well aware where Irma was.

All good, I do not have arthritis but do not have a good feeling on this one.
right now thinking more like Ian possibly, or worse if we get a hit.
will feel better once we know where this thing is forming, I think

[Steve]

Can someone answer these questions please?

1) Why does a Gyre storm take longer to form?
2) What are some other famous storms that originated this way?

Thanks.

First question is because it’s emanating from a larger almost monsoonal type situation rather than an African wave/low. Different origins take different amounts of times to set off. Sometimes when you get a mid level mesovortex or upper low splitting off and moving into the Gulf, those can take a while to work to the surface. With a gyre you have a complex setup where energy has to consolidate around it to resolve.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Aric Dunn too... where are you guys??