Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[kevin]

12z GFS is gonna single-handedly add multiple pages to the thread, 937 mb cat 4/5 at +99 hrs approaching Florida.

[DunedinDave]

Through 90 hours I buy the GFs position. I think the question after that becomes does it get pushed hard right or straight north? That’s where the ensembles really disagree. Even the ICON was struggling with that yesterday. Their 0z run had a run pushing almost due east.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

12Z run chose violence

https://i.imgur.com/crZmXbP.png

WOW That size storm envelope predicted will be a massive rain maker for the entire Florida peninsula and points north into the northern gulf and the SE states. A fast mover could help with that, but also bring its own set of alternate problems for larger population centers.

[Steve]

Don’t be surprised if this run bottoms out into the 930s. Could be a harbinger or an outlier.

[Category5Kaiju]

12z GFS is gonna single-handedly add multiple pages to the thread, 937 mb cat 4/5 at +99 hrs approaching Florida.

https://i.imgur.com/OgVSVAm.png

Yeah....um...

Wait, iirc, during the Hurricane Phoenix simulation, didn't the storm make landfall slightly to the north of Tampa Bay rather than directly over it or to the south?

[kevin]

Peaks at 932 mb, landfall at +108 hrs with a pressure of 935 mb near Panama City.

[Steve]

Connecting with the trough at 96 hours. Can’t get much farther east now I don’t think.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2212&fh=78

[Steve]

Looking like Cat 4 into Santa Rosa or Okaloosa County.

[psyclone]

Surf's up. I'm starting to wonder if our recent trend of backloaded seasons might really alter hurricane climo for the eastern gulf and western Caribbean....for much worse. This storm will be traveling over Otis like OHC conditions. Crikey.

[ThomasW]

Michael redux:

[Steve]

Connecting with the trough at 96 hours. Can’t get much farther east now I don’t think.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2212&fh=78

But it pinwheels toward PCB before landfall. Gonna be a lot of inland damage in south Alabama if this is the future.

[DunedinDave]

At least in Tampa Bay the GFS is steering away from the NE turn.
But damn, that’s not good for panhandle at all. A Michael redux.

[StormPyrate]

12z CMC has more of an east hook emerging

[WaveBreaking]

Hoping this is the just the GFS being convection happy... because conditions look very favourable if it's strengthing this fast.

There’s a small chance it might not be that. The 12Z GFS run seems to have initialized convection pretty well. Better than most of the other models have it at this time (AI-Euro and CMC also initialized pretty well). But at the same time, the GFS does love to throw up convection in the WCAR, so take this w a grain of salt.












GFS Sim-IR vs current image @15z:

[psyclone]

That GFS run would probably remove or relocate a good chunk of St George Island

[ThunderForce]

Oh my God. I really didn't need to see the 12z GFS.

[Steve]

CMC much weaker than GFS and a stronger cut off low centered over Arkansas instead of Oklahoma. Probably Bay or Gulf County landfall as a 1 or 2 for CMC. Yep. Loaded now to 102 hours.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=102

[ronjon]

That GFS run would probably remove or relocate a good chunk of St George Island

Michael 2.0

[HurricaneBelle]

12z GFS is Michael: The Revenge

[StormPyrate]

that GFS run initiated too far south no? based on Satelite?