Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[caneman]

At least in Tampa Bay the GFS is steering away from the NE turn.
But damn, that’s not good for panhandle at all. A Michael redux.

It doesn't really need a Northeast turn. If this develops 50 miles east and shoots straight North from there Tampa Bay is in trouble

[FLpanhandle91]

Just a gut punch for Mexico Beach and Tyndall AFB. That run by itself will cause a media frenzy. Tyndall AFB is a massive construction area right now and that run would effectively annihilate any progress made on that base and Apalachicola would get absolutely devastated. I sincerely hope that nothing even close to this manifests.

[aspen]

12z GFS is gonna single-handedly add multiple pages to the thread, 937 mb cat 4/5 at +99 hrs approaching Florida.

https://i.imgur.com/OgVSVAm.png

Welcome back Hurricane Michael.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

A Michael repeat would not be a good thing. That area is still not fully recovered. I did a bunch of initial first responder help and a few additional recovery trips with my team of volunteers after that one. (Many of the Mexican Beach folks were transferred over to the POD we set up a little further east by the cops/rescue teams.) So many were completely wiped out. Outside of the tourist beach areas, it is an area with a more disadvantaged population. Takes so much longer to repair things and hard for many to prep for what may be coming. They also had a slew of fires prior to the storm that also taxed many and forced evacuations. Very resilient folks though, and they all came together to help each other out right after the storm passed. It was great to see teens collecting supplies to bring to elderly neighbors who were unable to walk/bike/drive to our POD. Many roads were impassable for weeks.

[caneman]

GFS thus far has been the most consistent even though we dont yet have a trackable low and the others have been falling in line so for now that is the one that has my attention.

[sponger]

Not only Michael 2.0 but also the hurricane force winds almost to Atlanta.

[REDHurricane]

Especially given the predicted intensity of this season, the NHC has been incredibly conservative this year. Lots of shorties that were never given advisories, and a scant amount of invests. Some AOI’s going right to tropical systems and skipping invest stage. This is one of those cases where we could have had an invest as early as yesterday morning when deep convection was consolidating off of Nicaragua.

Yeah, I'm usually not in favor of the NHC bashing that sometimes goes on here, but this season they've been pretty terrible with the basic procedural stuff like invests, advisories, naming, even track at times like with Francine, and while seemingly inconsequential these little oversights can certainly end up affecting people's decision making when it comes to storm preparation or even being aware that a storm is coming at all. The fact that we're now within ~5 days of a probable major hurricane landfall somewhere on the Gulf coast and this disturbance hasn't even been labeled as an invest yet is unacceptable in my humble opinion.

[NDG]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1837887775934136664

[cheezyWXguy]

Connecting with the trough at 96 hours. Can’t get much farther east now I don’t think.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2212&fh=78

Even if the path and intensity play out verbatim up to that point, I think there is going to be a lot of debate on where it goes after that. Wxman had a good point with Francine when he talked about how storms with northward trajectories like this interacting with a trough tend to go east of initial depictions, and we have a long list of storms where that has been the case. To me, at least a portion of the peninsular west coast is still in play

[ronjon]

Especially given the predicted intensity of this season, the NHC has been incredibly conservative this year. Lots of shorties that were never given advisories, and a scant amount of invests. Some AOI’s going right to tropical systems and skipping invest stage. This is one of those cases where we could have had an invest as early as yesterday morning when deep convection was consolidating off of Nicaragua.

Yeah, I'm usually not in favor of the NHC bashing that sometimes goes on here, but this season they've been pretty terrible with the basic procedural like invests, advisories, naming, even track at times like with Francine, and while seemingly inconsequential these little oversights can certainly end up affecting people's decision making when it comes to storm preparation or even being aware that a storm is coming at all. The fact that we're now within ~5 days of a probable major hurricane landfall somewhere on the Gulf coast and this disturbance hasn't even been labeled as an invest yet is unacceptable in my humble opinion.

TWC has been staying on top of this the past 3 days showing both GFS and Euro model simulations. I would think NHC will be designating an INVEST shortly. Will be nice to get the hurricane models running.

[sponger]

Connecting with the trough at 96 hours. Can’t get much farther east now I don’t think.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2212&fh=78

Even if the path and intensity play out verbatim up to that point, I think there is going to be a lot of debate on where it goes after that. Wxman had a good point with Francine when he talked about how storms with northward trajectories like this interacting with a trough tend to go east of initial depictions, and we have a long list of storms where that has been the case. To me, at least a portion of the peninsular west coast is still in play

I usually enjoy a good storm but I want no part of this one. A fast moving intensifying major storm like Wilma or Charlie getting hooked by a front has always been my biggest fear here in NE Florida. Fortunately, climatology and history says its near impossible. Until it isn't. I drove the generator down to Broward the night Wilma exited and was shocked at the damage. Drove 2 hours in the dark all the way from Melbourne. It was insane and of course no one was prepared for it. My dad was without power for 10 days, from a Cat 1! A fall storm can be different from August in ways we rarely acknowledge.

[Kazmit]

The 12z GFS has a midrange TS in 48 hours and the NHC only has chances at 10% for 48 hours? Something is not adding up.

[caneman]

The 12z GFS has a midrange TS in 48 hours and the NHC only has chances at 10% for 48 hours? Something is not adding up.

We also have to factor in that NHC has been very conservative this year.

[ThunderForce]

A Michael repeat would not be a good thing. That area is still not fully recovered. I did a bunch of initial first responder help and a few additional recovery trips with my team of volunteers after that one. (Many of the Mexican Beach folks were transferred over to the POD we set up a little further east by the cops/rescue teams.) So many were completely wiped out. Outside of the tourist beach areas, it is an area with a more disadvantaged population. Takes so much longer to repair things and hard for many to prep for what may be coming. They also had a slew of fires prior to the storm that also taxed many and forced evacuations. Very resilient folks though, and they all came together to help each other out right after the storm passed. It was great to see teens collecting supplies to bring to elderly neighbors who were unable to walk/bike/drive to our POD. Many roads were impassable for weeks.

Yeah, it's true. I live in the general area Michael hit. There was lots of damage and destruction even as far inland as Marianna, which had a ton of wind damage despite being further inland. Even places such as Donalsonville in Georgia had a lot of damage from what I've heard. Perhaps the one good thing to come out of it is that there was a sense of unity that I hadn't really seen before then. Lots of people went out to help each other by giving their aid and looking out for others when possible.

A lot of areas in the Panhandle outside of the big cities such as Panama City, Pensacola and Tallahassee mainly consist of poorer and/or rural communities that generally have a harder time recovering from destructive storms like Michael. There are many, many mobile and manufactured homes in the area. Even now 6 years later you can still see a lot of Michael damage. A storm of a similar caliber hitting the same place not even a decade later would not be good at all.

[Pasmorade]

12z GFS is gonna single-handedly add multiple pages to the thread, 937 mb cat 4/5 at +99 hrs approaching Florida.

https://i.imgur.com/OgVSVAm.png

What the hell was the GFS smoking. Hopefully, the next few runs are more tamer...

[kevin]

12z GFS has 28 out of 31 members developing at +42, which is 38 hours from now. Some of them are even already below 1000 mb by that point. That's a development chance of 90% in the next 38 hours. Either GEFS is completely wrong or the 10% chances over the next 48 hours are way too low.

[StPeteMike]

Would 2 pm be the time we get a NHC update and a possible invest?

[Steve]

Especially given the predicted intensity of this season, the NHC has been incredibly conservative this year. Lots of shorties that were never given advisories, and a scant amount of invests. Some AOI’s going right to tropical systems and skipping invest stage. This is one of those cases where we could have had an invest as early as yesterday morning when deep convection was consolidating off of Nicaragua.

Yeah, I'm usually not in favor of the NHC bashing that sometimes goes on here, but this season they've been pretty terrible with the basic procedural stuff like invests, advisories, naming, even track at times like with Francine, and while seemingly inconsequential these little oversights can certainly end up affecting people's decision making when it comes to storm preparation or even being aware that a storm is coming at all. The fact that we're now within ~5 days of a probable major hurricane landfall somewhere on the Gulf coast and this disturbance hasn't even been labeled as an invest yet is unacceptable in my humble opinion.

I’ll never bash them. But here’s the thing. They see what we all see just at a doctorate level. They’re not going to panic over something not even labeled an invest yet that’s a model storm. The caution’s been out there. Now that we have an insane GFS run. They’ll have to make some decisions. For now it’s an extreme outlier on intensity. If they think it’s going that way they will spring to action. Otherwise we won’t have had but 4 days or less from genesis to landfall. So they’re doing their jobs so far with this.

[Steve]

Connecting with the trough at 96 hours. Can’t get much farther east now I don’t think.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2212&fh=78

Even if the path and intensity play out verbatim up to that point, I think there is going to be a lot of debate on where it goes after that. Wxman had a good point with Francine when he talked about how storms with northward trajectories like this interacting with a trough tend to go east of initial depictions, and we have a long list of storms where that has been the case. To me, at least a portion of the peninsular west coast is still in play

That was a different kind of trough though. This is a cut off

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

You must be in central or northern Florida. Here in Cutler Bay (10 miles or so south of Miami), a friend who lives one block away was quoted $15k yearly. That's on a typical 3/2 home built in the 60s.

Any severe hit on Florida will accelerate the insurance crisis and real estate collapse. My insurance was 800 a year three years ago. It is 2700 now with estimates of heading to 7-10K per year. We are in big big trouble!

In clearwater our rates are stabilizing, lots of the recent reforms are kicking in.
You cannot use antecdotal cases to make a true statement of the entire state.
Lots to be done still, but the state cannot survive another major storm just is not true.

I am in Pasco, this is nonsense from my perspective. Rates are 20- 35% up every year, constantly. Yes I shop around, Ive cut back coverage significantly. Im still up annualy 20%. In 2016 I paid $1100 a year for Homeowners. This year I paid $4200. My neighbors all say the same. Some of them have mortages where taxes and Insurance in escrow are 50% of the freaking payment.

People are fed up with it. Just one of the costs to live here that is spiraling out of control. Real estate market is teetering on a cliff because of these costs.


Not to derail the thread. I just had to speak my bit. Yes the state can survive of course but it will be another 30% increase across the board for everyone