Low pressure developing over the western Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[ThunderForce]

12z GEFS ensembles from Weathernerds:

[Sciencerocks]

Reminds me somewhat of Michael 2018 as it is developing in a similar area with a similar track with some of the models do in fact hint at it(gfs, ecmwf, etc), but I also believe another 1921 hurricane also looks possible based on the eastern possibilities within the models. SO track is between Michael 2018 and 1921. I don't think as strong as Michael but possibly cat2-3 range.

[Steve]

So how/what makes this different in the way it will effect a storm?

Thks

Hey hip. In the case of Francine you had a developing low coming up from the BOC with a trough across most of Texas. Like 57 said It was textbook that the center would continue to develop to the right as it repeatedly consolidated with the energy ahead of it. It probably eventually split but was a v shaped trough so the flow ahead of it is out of the SW. That’s still the same but when the point cuts off you have counter-clockwise rotating energy within the trough and in this case the strongest part of the trough. It buckles and the flow, again counterclockwise is going to draw in the energy from the surface tropics circulation.

A trough is an area of low pressure correct so... the cut off low becomes stronger when when it is basically broken up or disturbed by
some other weather pattern?

In the case of most other models yeah. Press play on the CMC icon and Nam below and watch the interaction. This is at 500mb so roughly 18,000 feet/3.41 miles.

Icon
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 92212&fh=6

CMC
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=150

Nam
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=-36

[Hypercane_Kyle]

That 12z GFS run is absolutely horrifying. For that to happen we'd need to have a TS by tomorrow though.

Not sure that will happen based on current organization.

[Steve]

So how/what makes this different in the way it will effect a storm?

Thks

Hey hip. In the case of Francine you had a developing low coming up from the BOC with a trough across most of Texas. Like 57 said It was textbook that the center would continue to develop to the right as it repeatedly consolidated with the energy ahead of it. It probably eventually split but was a v shaped trough so the flow ahead of it is out of the SW. That’s still the same but when the point cuts off you have counter-clockwise rotating energy within the trough and in this case the strongest part of the trough. It buckles and the flow, again counterclockwise is going to draw in the energy from the surface tropics circulation.

A trough is an area of low pressure correct so... the cut off low becomes stronger when when it is basically broken up or disturbed by
some other weather pattern?

I’m watching football so neglected to mention that troughs in La Niña patterns tend to be more fluid and split off at their apex. In El Niños they generally are progressive and move west to east across the country. This is a general rule and not 100%.

[TomballEd]

 https://x.com/SpaceCityWX/status/1837892631206011113

One of the things Berger doesn't like is that this isn't 97L yet. I know Dr. Andy Hazelton cautions about the models he helped develop, the HAFS models, not being as useful without a defined existing center, but Berger seems to think they'd be useful. I think using remote sensing and putting a low in at the area of greatest low level vorticity would at least help somewhat on the intensity side.

[StPeteMike]

Hoping the Happy Hour run doesn’t play any games if they designate this as an invest at 2 pm.

[Steve]

EC 12z is loading on pivotal but early.

[ConvergenceZone]

As someone pointed out earlier is that this system will be moving at an absolute lightning speed. While that's bad for preparation, it should be over just a few short hours after it begins, thus a short duration event. Also, will have much less time to get really strong.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/hurricane_chase/status/1837906301189239255

[Pipelines182]

That 12z GFS run is absolutely horrifying. For that to happen we'd need to have a TS by tomorrow though.

Not sure that will happen based on current organization.

https://i.imgur.com/HRYczM0.jpeg

Not really, we’ve seen numerous systems intensify from TS to C5 in 48 hours, I believe Michael did it in around 54. It only needs to be a TS by 00z Wednesday.

[TomballEd]

EC 12z is loading on pivotal but early.

The 6Z ECENS are pretty focused, most members into the Panhandle. There is more spread on the GEFS, if I could see a mean, I'd guess the Panhandle as well. Be interesting to see if Euro catches up a little on intensity. Like the UK Met, it tends to downplay intensity, nowhere near as bad as the UK model, but it still seems to downplay intensity.

Berger mentioned in his Space City Weather post that despite the increasing shear and dry air E of the center as it approaches the coast, the warmer than normal temperatures will hold off dry air into the core. GFS and 6Z Euro show less shear than earlier model predictions, I suspect because the storm is strong enough to pump up enough of an anticyclone above it to help protect it from shear.

[psyclone]

As someone pointed out earlier is that this system will be moving at an absolute lightning speed. While that's bad for preparation, it should be over just a few short hours after it begins, thus a short duration event. Also, will have much less time to get really strong.

Can you define "lightning speed"...I'm not seeing that. I do see plenty of solutions...some of which are very strong. If a system organizes it can intensify very rapidly if the stars align. OHC in the Gulf and Caribbean is record highs for this date per McNoldy's data. Otis went from a cat 1 to a 5 in 12 hours last year with similar rocket fuel. Explosive development should be a consideration even if that outcome isn't most likely.

[GCANE]

Just offshore NicHon Border.
Convection regenerating.

[Steve]

102 hour EC says GFS needs to take a break with that Cat 4 BS and joins the other models

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

GFS is the outlier rightfully or wrongfully.

[Argcane]

Just offshore NicHon Border.
Convection regenerating.

[Pasmorade]

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days while
moving northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to
produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next
several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the
progress of this feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to
move generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, and interests
along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[ConvergenceZone]

That 12z GFS run is absolutely horrifying. For that to happen we'd need to have a TS by tomorrow though.

Not sure that will happen based on current organization.

https://i.imgur.com/HRYczM0.jpeg

Not really, we’ve seen numerous systems intensify from TS to C5 in 48 hours, I believe Michael did it in around 54. It only needs to be a TS by 00z Wednesday.

True, but that was only because the atmospheric conditions were nearly "perfect" and that rarely happens.

[psyclone]

They went from 10 to 40 for 48 hour development odds. For an agency that likes to step a dime at a time...stacking 3 in one forecast cycle tells a lot.

[Category5Kaiju]

I think the fact that some model runs have this thing developing into a named storm as early as tomorrow explains the massive, seemingly abrupt increase in development odds.