ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[underthwx]

As I mentioned in the Models thread, what is really needed now are additional balloon launches in the trough area, combined with sending the G-IV for a mission tomorrow in the Gulf as well. We are 48 hours away from the time that watches are needed, and we still are in dark territory right now.

Will these balloon launches happen?....given the circumstances and implications this trough has on a potential cyclone?...

[StPeteMike]

As much as I would love to have this avoid the Tampa Bay region, I have to feel for the people of Big Bend to Pensacola if it heads in that direction. They would need at least a 500 year break of storms after everything they have gone through.

What about folks not in that area that may get the landfall?

Obviously any area. But I feel pretty confident that the landfall will be between Pensacola and East. Ruling out Naples, but anywhere near Port Charlotte and north.

[TomballEd]

I don't know exactly where the primary center forms, but there is likely a closed low just E of the border. Low clouds from the W over land, just beyond the convection, SE low level clouds headed into the main blob. Don't know how organized any low would be. CIMMS has the greatest ML vorticity just a bit S of the LL vorticity.

[wx98]

As I mentioned in the Models thread, what is really needed now are additional balloon launches in the trough area, combined with sending the G-IV for a mission tomorrow in the Gulf as well. We are 48 hours away from the time that watches are needed, and we still are in dark territory right now.

Will these balloon launches happen?....given the circumstances and implications this trough has on a potential cyclone?...

Yes, special balloons from some NWS offices will happen.

[FLpanhandle91]

Need those Midwest WFOs to get busy

[TomballEd]

If that storm that hit North Carolina had been given the name, Helene, Then this would’ve been the I storm. The national hurricane center got lucky.

Are you Dr. Ceecee? Looking at his recent timeline on Twitter.

[ThomasW]

At the NHC site, they have key messages for this disturbance. Maybe PTC comming very soon?

https://i.imgur.com/cqxtICG.png

PTC designation will likely be tomorrow morning, either 9z or 15z, depending on trends.

Not impossible it's a TC by 15/21z tomorrow. RECON will be in, so we'll see what they find.

[StPeteMike]

I have a hunch we will have a few reformations to the east closer to 82W in the overnight areas. Seems the heavier convection is in that vicinity and these storms try to fight to be under the heaviest convection.

[wx98]

At the NHC site, they have key messages for this disturbance. Maybe PTC comming very soon?

https://i.imgur.com/cqxtICG.png

PTC designation will likely be tomorrow morning, either 9z or 15z, depending on trends.

Not impossible it's a TC by 15/21z tomorrow. RECON will be in, so we'll see what they find.

Correct! They’ll just jump straight into TD/TS if that’s the case, like I mentioned here a couple hours ago.

[Fancy1002]

If that storm that hit North Carolina had been given the name, Helene, Then this would’ve been the I storm. The national hurricane center got lucky.

Unless the 0/50 storm can get its act fast and fool us into becoming Helene...

That kind of thing did happen a few years ago with Ian and whatever the H storm was then

[MarioProtVI]

If that storm that hit North Carolina had been given the name, Helene, Then this would’ve been the I storm. The national hurricane center got lucky.

Unless the 0/50 storm can get its act fast and fool us into becoming Helene...

That kind of thing did happen a few years ago with Ian and whatever the H storm was then

Hermine

[Teban54]

Convection has persisted and even deepened, despite being more offset from the "center".

[hipshot]

Convection has persisted and even deepened, despite being more offset from the "center".

https://i.postimg.cc/sg3FCBpR/goes16-ir-97-L-202409221625.gif

Have they got coordinates for the suspected LLC?

[ConvergenceZone]

The weird part of all of this is that WXMAN has been strangely absent during all of this. He made an initial post several days ago, but usually by now there are multiple posts by him on the potential storm. I don't want to read too much into it, but maybe his lack of prediction is not a good one and he expects this to be a bad storm.

[robbielyn]

Unless the 0/50 storm can get its act fast and fool us into becoming Helene...

That kind of thing did happen a few years ago with Ian and whatever the H storm was then

Hermine

yeah 2016 when the big bend tracks started. since 2016 we have had quite a few. just like tornado alley shifted, it seems like the tracks shifted from either east coast florida to west coast or maybe more eastern gulf vs central or western gulf. but that’s the year the frequency of eastern gulf as in east of appalachicola started

[Teban54]

That kind of thing did happen a few years ago with Ian and whatever the H storm was then

Hermine

yeah 2016 when the big bend tracks started. since 2016 we have had quite a few. just like tornado alley shifted, it seems like the tracks shifted from either east coast florida to west coast or maybe more eastern gulf vs central or western gulf. but that’s the year the frequency of eastern gulf as in east of appalachicola started

They're talking about Hermine 2022, the weak Cabo Verde storm that "stole" the H name from pre-Ian and made the latter take on the infamous I name.

[jlauderdal]

The weird part of all of this is that WXMAN has been strangely absent during all of this. He made an initial post several days ago, but usually by now there are multiple posts by him on the potential storm. I don't want to read too much into it, but maybe his lack of prediction is not a good one and he expects this to be a bad storm.

He said he was taking comp days this weekend.

[robbielyn]

Hermine

yeah 2016 when the big bend tracks started. since 2016 we have had quite a few. just like tornado alley shifted, it seems like the tracks shifted from either east coast florida to west coast or maybe more eastern gulf vs central or western gulf. but that’s the year the frequency of eastern gulf as in east of appalachicola started

They're talking about Hermine 2022, the weak Cabo Verde storm that "stole" the H name from pre-Ian and made the latter take on the infamous I name.

oh ok my bad thanks

[xironman]

The weird part of all of this is that WXMAN has been strangely absent during all of this. He made an initial post several days ago, but usually by now there are multiple posts by him on the potential storm. I don't want to read too much into it, but maybe his lack of prediction is not a good one and he expects this to be a bad storm.

My guess is the potential is so significant that he is consumed by all the time for his real job. Look at all the platforms in the track.

[ScottNAtlanta]

There are also going to be big problems inland if this is moving at a good clip. This could be worse for the Atlanta Metro than Opal was, and that was a real mess with trees down everywhere and power out for days