ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[zal0phus]

The weird part of all of this is that WXMAN has been strangely absent during all of this. He made an initial post several days ago, but usually by now there are multiple posts by him on the potential storm. I don't want to read too much into it, but maybe his lack of prediction is not a good one and he expects this to be a bad storm.

My guess is the potential is so significant that he is consumed by all the time for his real job. Look at all the platforms in the track.

Funny enough I find this to be the most ominous sign of all. Whenever WXMAN's bearishness disappears, whether he's actually making bullish predictions or he's vanished, you know things will be serious. I remember this happening with Ida a few years ago.

[Matlachamullethead]

Ahh, there are no oil rigs/platforms west of Pensacola. I don't know what you are talking about.

[Matlachamullethead]

Ooops.... Sorry, east I should say.

[xironman]

Ooops.... Sorry, east I should say.

You do realize that the track would take it over the central gulf to get there? Ever hear of Thunderhorse?

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, let's no deviate to talk about other things and about other members and concentrate on the topic on hand and that is the NW Caribbean disturbance 97L. Thanks for your cooperation.

[StPeteMike]

That deep convection around 81W 15N has stayed together all day, which is concerning to say the least. Just takes a LLC getting tugged under that to get this thing going. I also think that would place it a little east of where many of the models have it.

[robbielyn]

Ok folks, let's no deviate to talk about other things and about other members and concentrate on the topic on hand and that is the NW Caribbean disturbance 97L. Thanks for your cooperation.

Eric Webb pointed out the epac system TD 10e well on its way to becoming a future cane may impart westerly shear on 97L inhibiting strengthening.

[StPeteMike]

Ok folks, let's no deviate to talk about other things and about other members and concentrate on the topic on hand and that is the NW Caribbean disturbance 97L. Thanks for your cooperation.

Eric Webb pointed out the epac system TD 10e well on its way to becoming a future cane may impart westerly shear on 97L inhibiting strengthening.

I struggle to see that with such a small system it is. If it was as large as this future Helene, I would agree.

[xironman]

-90s

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Absolutely incredible ventilation is portrayed on the GFS on 97L once it gets into the Gulf. Combined with some of the warmest waters ever recorded you've got a bad mix.

[KC7NEC]

I'll be in St, Pete Beach after Tuesday for ten days..... Kinda surreal watching models and the forum this time knowing I possibly could get impacted.

[aspen]

Absolutely incredible ventilation is portrayed on the GFS on 97L once it gets into the Gulf. Combined with some of the warmest waters ever recorded you've got a bad mix.

I’m getting Michael vibes from this. Broad strokes of its genesis, track, and Gulf ventilation are quite similar.

[cycloneye]

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few
days while the system moves northward across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless
of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains
over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this
feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally
northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the
northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[xironman]

You don't see many "whiteouts" on SWIR

[Category5Kaiju]

Deep layer shear merely 12 hours ago:


Deep layer shear now:

[3090]

Convection has persisted and even deepened, despite being more offset from the "center".

https://i.postimg.cc/sg3FCBpR/goes16-ir-97-L-202409221625.gif

Still going to take tome to get all three levels together. Pretty long way to go.

[3090]

Absolutely incredible ventilation is portrayed on the GFS on 97L once it gets into the Gulf. Combined with some of the warmest waters ever recorded you've got a bad mix.

Ever recorded? They are 84-87. Nothing abnormal for the GOM. A little high for this time of the season but far from ever recorded.

[psyclone]

Absolutely incredible ventilation is portrayed on the GFS on 97L once it gets into the Gulf. Combined with some of the warmest waters ever recorded you've got a bad mix.

Ever recorded? They are 84-87. Nothing abnormal for the GOM. A little high for this time of the season but far from ever recorded.

Gulf OHC has never been higher on this date per McNoldy's data. That's true both in the Gulf and the Caribbean...assuming his data is accurate

[Poonwalker]

It’s going to have to contend with shear until it gets to the Yucatán passage. The warm water is helping the convection blowup despite less than ideal conditions right now.

[ElectricStorm]

So how much influence will TD10-E, soon to be John, have on 97Ls development? I'm thinking theres a pretty good chance John overperforms and becomes a decent hurricane and in theory would throw shear over 97L via outflow, at least until it gets past the Yucatan.

But I still think we're heading towards a potentially significant hurricane approaching the gulf coast unfortunately