ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Likely mid level, but the energy for 97L is farther E than the 8pm NHC “X”…

[chris_fit]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/L6s0Q7b2/goes16-vis-swir-97-L-202409222125.gif [/url]

Likely mid level, but the energy for 97L is farther E than the 8pm NHC “X”…

As WXMAN57 would say.... Follow the convection. Follow the convection. Follow the convection....

[psyclone]

I agree with follow the convection. Wagons east...to some extent...is very possible if that deep convection can persist. An eventual track near or over far western Cuba is a real possibility should that maintain

[MarioProtVI]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/L6s0Q7b2/goes16-vis-swir-97-L-202409222125.gif [/url]

Likely mid level, but the energy for 97L is farther E than the 8pm NHC “X”…

The developing LLC which was near the H/N border today is likely gonna get yanked into that MLC.

[StPeteMike]

So how much influence will TD10-E, soon to be John, have on 97Ls development? I'm thinking theres a pretty good chance John overperforms and becomes a decent hurricane and in theory would throw shear over 97L via outflow, at least until it gets past the Yucatan.

But I still think we're heading towards a potentially significant hurricane approaching the gulf coast unfortunately

Still don’t believe that John will have much influence on future Helene.

1) John will be a relatively small system.
2) The distance between both storms is far enough to keep the shear away.

[Poonwalker]

Definitely tilted east. To be expected. If shear relaxes then it might relocate there. The scary place is the gulf. Conditions have gotten very favorable there.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 97, 2024092300, , BEST, 0, 157N, 828W, 20, 1006, DB

[ScottNAtlanta]

Center to me looks like it's been pulled to around 15n 83w.

[TallyTracker]

Center to me looks like it's been pulled to around 15n 83w.

That’s really close to the NHC’s latest estimate.

Looking at IR (which is a bad idea but I’m doing it anyway lol), I seem to see two swirls. One near the NHC’s position and one to the northeast closer to the convection. Whichever one prevails will have a huge impact on track IMO.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Saw it mentioned the outflow from an EPAC hurricane could disrupt development. I don't think it'll be quick enough to stop 97L considering we're looking at genesis as soon as tomorrow night, but I do think it could make for some more easterly development due to shear. We're seeing hints of that on the latest model runs as well. Otherwise the two don't look close enough to my eye to think they'll interfere with one another too much.

[wxman57]

Looking like FL Panhandle hurricane landfall Thursday afternoon/night. Busy week.

[StPeteMike]

Looking like FL Panhandle hurricane landfall Thursday afternoon/night. Busy week.

Hey wxman, glad to see you on!

Do you agree with NHC’s x location for the location or do you believe it will tuck itself under the mess to the east?

[DunedinDave]

That big blob of convection is way east of NHC “supposed center.” So either that blob is just a temporary burst of convection and the “supposed center” will fill in with storms tomorrow or that blob of convection will form an LLC. Not sure which scenario will play out but I would imagine we’ll find out tomorrow. If it’s the blob to the right this could intensify much quicker and the models would have to adjust accordingly I would assume?

[ConvergenceZone]

Looking like FL Panhandle hurricane landfall Thursday afternoon/night. Busy week.

He has awoken! Glad to see ya back wxman.

[CrazyC83]

I believe the western tip of Cuba is pretty flat that it wouldn't interfere too much with the development - and even if it did, it would have time to recover as we saw with Ida.

[Pipelines182]

I believe the western tip of Cuba is pretty flat that it wouldn't interfere too much with the development - and even if it did, it would have time to recover as we saw with Ida.

The Sierra de los Órganos are on the west end of Cuba, elevation only about 1,000’. That’s on the mainland, that small peninsula is flat.

[Hurricaneman]

If this is indeed forming to the NE of the NHC position places like Cedar Key to Tampa would have to keep a real close eye on this being 25 to 30 miles NE of the NHC plot

[StPeteMike]

If this is indeed forming to the NE of the NHC position places like Cedar Key to Tampa would have to keep a real close eye on this being 25 to 30 miles NE of the NHC plot

The next NHC update, I would expect the red bubble to be moved a little east.

[eastcoastFL]

Absolutely incredible ventilation is portrayed on the GFS on 97L once it gets into the Gulf. Combined with some of the warmest waters ever recorded you've got a bad mix.

Ever recorded? They are 84-87. Nothing abnormal for the GOM. A little high for this time of the season but far from ever recorded.

There are waters in the Gulf pushing 90⁰F right now and this storm has a good chance of passing through them. That's one of the reasons so many intensity models are bullish right now.

[Nederlander]

That big blob of convection is way east of NHC “supposed center.” So either that blob is just a temporary burst of convection and the “supposed center” will fill in with storms tomorrow or that blob of convection will form an LLC. Not sure which scenario will play out but I would imagine we’ll find out tomorrow. If it’s the blob to the right this could intensify much quicker and the models would have to adjust accordingly I would assume?

It’s just not vertically stacked yet (column is tilted east due to westerly shear). The center fix just off the coast was correct. It doesn’t mean that LLC won’t get pulled into the deeper convection though.