Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 98L)

[StPeteMike]

This will be an easier storm to track compared to 97L, which has certainly been a headache to predict/forecast/follow.

I could see a major out of this, if it continues on a more westward path and less north.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS weaker for this wave then the 18z, peaks at around 987mb compared to 978 on the last run

[Beef Stew]

Up to 10/70. Is this our first far-eastern MDR code-red of the season?

[Teban54]

Up to 10/70. Is this our first far-eastern MDR code-red of the season?

Gordon formed in the eastern MDR, so nope.

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located between western Africa and the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the middle to latter part of this week while it moves westward
to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave approaching the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
middle to latter part of this week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

2 PM: Copy and paste.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave approaching the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
middle to latter part of this week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[aspen]

This looks like another Gordon repeat, perhaps making it to Cat 1 status but otherwise a fairly minimal MDR system that recurves well before the islands. However, its existence shows how the ITCZ is dipping back south and the AEJ/Monsoon is finally disentangling itself, allowing for distinct waves to emerge at a reasonable latitude.

[aspen]

18z GFS has a low-end Cat 1 on Friday.

[cycloneye]

8 PM:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
middle to latter part of this week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

Probably will get tagged soon

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located near the Cabo Verde Islands has become more concentrated
since yesterday. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form in a few days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with a tropical wave located near the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form in a few days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

All but one GEFS ensemble member keeps this east of 55W and the sheers it before the Azores. Looks like it could be a true fish storm.

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
Satellite surface wind data from earlier today showed a broad open
trough associated with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form in a few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[AnnularCane]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
Satellite surface wind data from earlier today showed a broad open
trough associated with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form in a few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

I think somebody wants to be an invest.

[cycloneye]

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad low pressure system associated with a tropical wave located
west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.. Environmental conditions appear favorable for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form in a few days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percen

[ouragans]

50 pct and still no Invest?

[WaveBreaking]

This wave looks pretty good atm with a nearly closed circulation and a healthy ULAC stacked on top. It might be able to take advantage of the favorable conditions it has before it gets sheared.

[AnnularCane]

50 pct and still no Invest?

50/80. And just to twist the knife, a 50/50 EPAC system just got invested. Poor thing!

[Teban54]

Everyone is focused on Helene right now for obvious reasons, but...