ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormlover70]

Looking like FL Panhandle hurricane landfall Thursday afternoon/night. Busy week.

So west coast is in the clear atm?

[Category5Kaiju]

Absolutely incredible ventilation is portrayed on the GFS on 97L once it gets into the Gulf. Combined with some of the warmest waters ever recorded you've got a bad mix.

Ever recorded? They are 84-87. Nothing abnormal for the GOM. A little high for this time of the season but far from ever recorded.

There are waters in the Gulf pushing 90⁰F right now and this storm has a good chance of passing through them. That's one of the reasons so many intensity models are bullish right now.

Additionally, this system is expected to pass directly over the Loop Current, a region of the Gulf that is basically a tongue of exceptionally high upper ocean heat content. We’ve seen storms like Katrina and Ida get an extra boost after passing directly over it

[cycloneye]

Comming from one of the best chasers, is not the best to hear if you live in the gulf coast.

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1837954856276963748

[typhoonty]

Looking like FL Panhandle hurricane landfall Thursday afternoon/night. Busy week.

So west coast is in the clear atm?

This will be an extremely large storm. At a minimum, I would prepare for Hurricane Debby like impacts for the Nature coast region. frequent Tropical storm wind gusts (or greater) are pretty much assured for all of west Florida west of the US-19 corridor. Several people I know personally had water enter their homes during Debby in the Tampa Bay and Sarasota metropolitan areas. We are definitely not "in the clear".

[Hurricaneman]

Looking like FL Panhandle hurricane landfall Thursday afternoon/night. Busy week.

So west coast is in the clear atm?

In no way is the West Coast of Florida in the clear, an east adjustment would possibly put places like Cedar Key to Tampa in the possible danger zone depending on if the low stays near Honduras or is more NE in the convection

[StPeteMike]

Looking like FL Panhandle hurricane landfall Thursday afternoon/night. Busy week.

So west coast is in the clear atm?

Never in the clear until it’s either past us or is moving in the complete opposite direction.

I have a few friends in Port Charlotte area…. they thought the same for a few storms.

[La Sirena]

Isn’t this a lot like Hurricane Michael? Originated as a CAG as well.

[DunedinDave]

Looking like FL Panhandle hurricane landfall Thursday afternoon/night. Busy week.

So west coast is in the clear atm?

In no way is the West Coast of Florida in the clear, an east adjustment would possibly put places like Cedar Key to Tampa in the possible danger zone depending on if the low stays near Honduras or is more NE in the convection

I said this in the models thread but the only way I think Tampa Bay is in the clear of a direct hit is if it goes through the Yucatan Channel and into the southern gulf. I think it would be too far left and then moving too fast to make an abrupt move back to the ENE. That's basically the path the GFS takes right now.

Now if the center reforms to the East because of some of the westerly shear it's undergoing right now, it could mean a path more toward the western part of Cuba or over the Isle of Youth which is where Ian crossed. If it crosses over there, then I think Tampa Bay has a real reason for concern because now you're talking about a storm coming into the SE Gulf and a NNE track puts the Bay area very close to under the gun.

That's why I think where this center ultimately forms is such an important part of the future track.

[weeniepatrol]

Isn’t this a lot like Hurricane Michael? Originated as a CAG as well.

Most CAG systems do not become powerful hurricanes. The majority are on the weaker side. Also, Michael had a more convoluted genesis process than JUST the CAG.

Michael had a complex origin and a prolonged genesis process. A large area of disturbed
weather formed over the central and western Caribbean Sea and absorbed the remains of
Tropical Storm Kirk on 1–2 October. A convective burst on 2 October, possibly associated with
a tropical wave moving into the region, led to the formation of a small-scale surface low southwest
of Jamaica on 3 October, and this system moved west-southwestward into northeastern
Honduras the next day. By 5 October, this low became embedded within a large cyclonic gyre
over Central America, with a vorticity center to the southwest over the extreme eastern Pacific
Ocean. On 6 October, the Pacific vorticity moved inland over Central America and became
absorbed into the larger gyre, whose mean center re-formed over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142018_Michael.pdf

There were numerous moving parts involved in Michael, including the CAG, the remnants of Tropical Storm Kirk, and an additional tropical wave.

Just because both Michael and 97 have CAG origins doesn't mean this automatically will become a major. That being said, conditions do look generally favorable, so internal factors such as rate (and location) of consolidation and pressure gradient will likely determine its ceiling.

[ronjon]

If this is indeed forming to the NE of the NHC position places like Cedar Key to Tampa would have to keep a real close eye on this being 25 to 30 miles NE of the NHC plot

The next NHC update, I would expect the red bubble to be moved a little east.

It's in it's formative stages and not vertically stacked yet so probably wait till tomorrow to see where actual center forms. Models do show it moving NW the next 48 hrs so probably it's position in the Yuc straits might be a better predictor of where it might go in eastern GOM.

[crimi481]

Can you say Charley?

[Category5Kaiju]

Isn’t this a lot like Hurricane Michael? Originated as a CAG as well.

Indeed.

In fact, given the potential location of impact and the projected strength as well, Michael is probably our best analog, unfortunately.

[Poonwalker]

GFS seems to show the initial LLC relocating east a few times so it has at least compensated for that already. That said we don’t yet have a confirmed LLC for them to work with. Iam most worried about an HMON solution. That would be costly. Insurance rates would become insane.

[StPeteMike]

If this is indeed forming to the NE of the NHC position places like Cedar Key to Tampa would have to keep a real close eye on this being 25 to 30 miles NE of the NHC plot

The next NHC update, I would expect the red bubble to be moved a little east.

It's in it's formative stages and not vertically stacked yet so probably wait till tomorrow to see where actual center forms. Models do show it moving NW the next 48 hrs so probably it's position in the Yuc straits might be a better predictor of where it might go in eastern GOM.

For sure! Tomorrow is going to be very interesting and nerve racking.

[Stormcenter]

Not even in the Gulf yet and yet some are speculating who's in and out of the woods.....lol
It's not even a storm yet or in the Gulf.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Now it looks like it is forming the center on the NW side of the ball of convection. You can see the low level turning into that area from the NW side

[Hurricaneman]

I have this at 16.2n 81.8w as it seems as though a low may be consolidating in that location looking at satellite not near Honduras like the NHC is showing as I see no evidence of a low in that location

[typhoonty]

We have seen time and time again this set up, and more often than not, the center ends up coming in downshear of initial projections (in this case east). Francine and to a lesser extent Debby have felt this effect and came in east of consensus, as did Beryl in TX.

Please take this seriously on the entire gulf coast of Florida. The vast majority of the population will be on the dirty side, yet again, of a tropical system. The third in 400 days. This one will be the largest compared to Debby and Idalia.

[REDHurricane]

[ScottNAtlanta]

I have this at 16.2n 81.8w as it seems as though a low may be consolidating in that location looking at satellite not near Honduras like the NHC is showing as I see no evidence of a low in that location

I think maybe a tad west of there, but pretty close. Definitely not on the coast