Why it is Not game Over

[WEATHER53]

The stunning similiaries to 1979 continue. After some record streaks of 70's and even 80's early in the month we are now mirroring the 11/17-11/26/79 streak of 70's, it will not be as lengthy but the comparison is impressive. December will continue mild. However, this is no 2001-2002 at all. In fact, once again (and this did not occur in 2001-02-basically it stayed warm all the time except for a 10-14 day stretch), we will get another cold shot in here for Tue/Wed and possibly Thursday. Trying not to make the msitake I made once in Oct and once in Nov I do not want to under estimate this cold shot and it looks like at least one day of highs ranging only 45-50 for DC area and up to and the other to at or not much above 50. But after that it is mild again. When the cold does come, either in Jan or Feb, it will be extreme and persistent-no longer 1-3 day shots-persistent. I think we will have at least 5 days that temps do not get out of the 20's in DC and at least 3 nights where lows are single digits, or lower. Richmond to Norfolk and points south, this looks to be your year for the snow as the suppressive highs will keep most of the snow much further south than is typical.

[Squall52]

79-80 seems to be as good as analogs go for this year. Maybe if I don't believe in analogs, it won't be a complete repeat. Well, at least I have this nice big warm lake to my north. Hopefully it doesn't get too cold up here though, last year hurt too much trying to run 70-90mpw outside.

[Guest]

A detailed IAD analog comparison from my earlier topic this evening......maybe the discussion will continue from here?
Nov 22, 1979 was also 73 and low 70s (73?) expected tomorrow 11/22/03.
Things that "continue" to make you go...HMMMMMMMMM!!
Dec 1979 saw only 4 days at IAD in the 30's from 12-18 thru 21..., the rest were 40s and 50's mainly with 6 days of 60 plus.....and NO SNOW in DEC.....i.e. NO SUSTAINED DEC COLD.....suddenly JAN 4 and 5 was the first snow with 2 day total of 9 inches falling.....temps mainly in the 30s and 40s all month long with 13 days at 40 or below for highs.......Feb was pretty cold the 1st 18 days(upper 20s to upper 30s for highs) except for a 1 day spike to 58 on the 14th.....1 inch of snow onthe 6th, 2in on the 9th and 3 inches on the 28th..got cold again last week of FEB which lasted til about MAR 3rd...and 6inches of snow fell on the 1st and 2nd(while southern areas got clobbered.....another 4 inches fell 3/13-14.

So there ya have it,.,,how close will this winter mimic 79-80? anyone's guess?!!?!?

The summer that followed was,,ugh!!..torrid!!!

[WEATHER53]

Yes Led it is striking, usually these are comparable, so far it is nearly identical. I am looking forward to December being the make or break month as so many have characterized it with us being in the distinct minority that it will continue mild. We are lucky there is no la nina and se ridge lock in because with that pacific jet just screaming into the Great lakes it would be overwhelmingly difficult to turn things around. The jet will eventually reorient as there is nothing prohbititve to it doing so and some fun, mostly just cold and not snow, will be felt in DC metro and points north. The snow lovers in Richmond-Norfolk and south to Atlanta will be loving it with over 15" in all of those areas and even 25" possible.

[HuffWx]

Is it suppressive high or non amplified pattern? If the PNA ridge is not strong...then the basic wave physics says trough will not be amplified either.

I will take 79-80...33 inches of snow that winter here.

Huff

[DelStormLover]

Hey 53 just wondering how the winter looks for SE DE........since a suppressed storm track may not be all that bad for us....

[RNS]

If the PNA ridge is weak or broad based, that would imply that the downstream trough is less amplified and the pattern more progressive (in-between amplified and zonal). that being said, systems move through faster and more west-to-east than what they would given a more amplified pattern.

[WEATHER53]

Salisbury, lower 1/3 of Delaware, Richmond, and possibly even Norfolk will get more snow than DCA. Lows will try to come up the coast but will not be able to make it most of the time once the cold is on, also any secondary type systems will have no chance of making northward progress.

[HuffWx]

Exactly RNS...much different then a suppressive high. Still a pattern for decent overunning events and the ever present...zonal potential energy.

Huff

[Guest]

Just for the heck of it ,here is a Denver Stapleton airport comparison for OCT NOV '79 , and OCT NOV '03.......just to go along with the cold/west warm/east analogy.....i
Oct 79 featured 13 days of 75 and above , this year 15 days of the same, tho' more 80's this year.....DEN had 3 inches of snow on OCT 29 1979 and this year a trace was recorded on 10-30 and 31.....DEN highs zig zagged between 35 and 60 first 1/2 of NOV 79 as they did this month.....in '79 they had a trace of snow on 11/4 and about 3 inches on the 10th and 11th..and up to a foot and a half between the 19th and 21st of NOV 1979..this year DEN recorded a trace on the 5th and 7th,, and currently they are about to get a moderate snow of up to 6 inches between today and Sunday.....so although the amounts are different, the dates are quite similar.......

[DelStormLover]

Ah, Thanks for the info 53.
Sounds interesting

[HuffWx]

For the NC crowd...check this NWS RDU site for storm history...has the last of the 80 events, March 1-2

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/events/

[QCWx]

For the NC crowd...check this NWS RDU site for storm history...has the last of the 80 events, March 1-2

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/events/

I know this is off the 1979-1980 analog subject but....

Check out those back to back storms in 87! It's almost like weather stuff . I live in the county next to mecklenburg so we barely squeezed in that small lip of dark blue. Then we had the other storm not even but two days later.

I swear great things happen around here winter weather wise in the January 23-30 timeframe .

[HuffWx]

Yes, and actually some of the "other global indecies" mainly the QBO is somewhat similiar 86-87. I lived in DE in 87 and it was great. 3 huge storms.

Huff

[JCT777]

The winter of '86-'87 was great in my area too. Over 40 inches of snow for the winter, including storms of 11" and 19". Nice!