2024 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

According to the models, development over the next week (if any) will have to be closer to 130W.

[Kingarabian]

Latest model runs show good potential for a TC to quickly spin up right before the dateline.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like we could see a hurricane off of Mexico in about 7-9 days.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS has an active monsoon trough across the EPAC.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro has two systems off of Mexico.

[Ubuntwo]

Has yet to be mentioned, 0/60 off the western shore of Mexico.

[cycloneye]

Invest 93E is up

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1834332517387882970

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1834332517387882970

Considering both this and EPAC's record late start, it does appear more likely that lack of TC formation may be a global problem this year, not limited to the Atlantic. Even though lower activity was expected for EPAC well in advance (unlike ATL), this level of inactivity (especially just in storm formations) seems like an anomaly even for La Nina years, and becomes especially suspicious when also considering other basins.

[al78]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1834332517387882970

Considering both this and EPAC's record late start, it does appear more likely that lack of TC formation may be a global problem this year, not limited to the Atlantic. Even though lower activity was expected for EPAC well in advance (unlike ATL), this level of inactivity (especially just in storm formations) seems like an anomaly even for La Nina years, and becomes especially suspicious when also considering other basins.

I agree about the possible global issue. I expected both sides of the Pacific to be below-average with a developing La Nina and a negative PDO, but the lack of activity so far is more like what I would expect during a 2010-strength La Nina event, not the current cold-neutral conditions.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS has TCG in less than 5 days.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. 1. Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico late this weekend. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this
system thereafter as it slowly moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Roberts

[Kingarabian]

Up to 0/50.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a trough
of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system is possible
while it meanders offshore through early next week, then moves
slowly eastward or northeastward toward the coast of southern Mexico
during the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the
early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly
eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
slow development of this system while it meanders offshore the next
few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early or
middle part of next week when the system begins to move slowly
eastward or northeastward toward the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the
early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly
eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

[Kingarabian]

Latest GFS shows a bunch of areas of vorticity beelining the Mexican coast. Could see a few more systems.

[cycloneye]

John is back!!!!!. https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 4#p3092724

[cycloneye]

Here we go again with two more potential cyclones that may cause more problems in the area of Oaxaca and Guerrero that were badly affected by John with massive floodings and many fatalities occured.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to gradually develop off the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.
Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for
additional development after that, and a tropical depression could
form by the middle or late portions of this week. The disturbance is
forecast to meander near or just offshore the coast for most of the
week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to
the coast of Mexico by next weekend. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to contribute to additional heavy rainfall across
portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, and interests there
should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec during the next couple of days. Gradual development
of the disturbance will be possible after that, if the system
remains offshore the coast of southern Mexico. The disturbance is
forecast to move erratically through mid-week, and then potentially
move northward toward the coast later this week. Regardless of
formation, heavy rain will be possible along most of the coast of
southern Mexico throughout this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster D. Zelinsky

[Teban54]

EPAC's ACE has fallen below half of climo YTD today, at 59.9 for a climo of 120.0.

[Kingarabian]

GFS and CMC have 4 vigorous vorticies across the EPAC in the next 10 days.