ATL: HELENE - Models

[Steve]

I agree Rock. Biggest issue after the ULL to the north of the system moves away and the pattern reverses is still the CONUS cut-off low. NAM12km is out to 63 hours. (For anyone who doesn't know, don't panic at what you see tropical on the NAMs). Both the trough and the storm are a little west of the last run which was a little west of the prior run. Looks to want to pull it up to around Panama City.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2312&fh=78

[Steve]

I usually only use the surface outputs for the FV3 Hi-Res, but the 500 vort and winds is interesting as the trough is farther east than the NAM. I don't know if FV3 is good for upper patterns or not, so I'm just posting it without any knowledge of its biases and issues. If it's got the trough correct (which ?) then the storm should come up east of where the NAMs are bringing it and say probably be stronger as well.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2312&fh=60

[DunedinDave]

Always tough to predict a system coming up from the south when you’re talking about digging troughs and timing. This is what threw models off on Ian so much. It’s much easier when you have an LP and HP locked in place and just send it through the uprights. This is like trying to kick a long field goal with moving goal posts.

[Steve]

Always tough to predict a system coming up from the south when you’re talking about digging troughs and timing. This is what threw models off on Ian so much. It’s much easier when you have an LP and HP locked in place and just send it through the uprights. This is like trying to kick a long field goal with moving goal posts.

100%.

[Nuno]

Looking at the NAM heights, the trough trend has been further west fwiw since 00z.

[chris_fit]

12Z ICON running...

[jlauderdal]

Quick question: I have been reading the awesome posts on here and I keep seeing selected posters saying that there has been a reformation of the center to the east. Has that been confirmed?

There is no center at this time, wait on NHC, they have recon in there later today, they might not find a center so for now they "they make a center to help the modeling"

[AerospaceEng]

12z ICON initialized 2 degrees too far west. About 160 miles too far west.

[BobHarlem]

12z icon already east of 6z at 48 hours. (similar to 0z) despite the bad init point.

[Stormlover70]

Quick question: I have been reading the awesome posts on here and I keep seeing selected posters saying that there has been a reformation of the center to the east. Has that been confirmed?

No. NHC should have an update out in the next 15 or so minutes with where they believe the center is.

Some of these early cycle models show a fairly robust system. A far cry from a few days of ago of sheared TS. I think if I was in the Tampa area I would be preparing a little more rapidly today. 72hrs is not a lot of time. JMO of course. Actually any GOMer should be prepared every season.

very concerned here

[DunedinDave]

ICON is digging that trough deep. My guess is it’s going to kick Helene hard to the right unless that trough lifts fast.

[StPeteMike]

ICON is digging that trough deep. My guess is it’s going to kick Helene hard to the right unless that trough lifts fast.

Yeah, you don’t want to the see that deep of a dip with the trough for the Big Bend/Nature Coast.

Atlanta still looks to get walloped in that run too.

[Steve]

ICON 971 getting close to landfall on the east side of whatever they call the notch on the panhandle. Looks like it's going to be Tate's Hell/Alligator Point area Thursday afternoon or evening. Cat 2 on this run.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[DunedinDave]

ICON is digging that trough deep. My guess is it’s going to kick Helene hard to the right unless that trough lifts fast.

Yeah, you don’t want to the see that deep of a dip with the trough for the Big Bend/Nature Coast.

Atlanta still looks to get walloped in that run too.

Trough does lift at the end which may save Tampa. ICON has it making a bulls eye for the west coast before turning it more north at the end. Landfall looks to be around Perry.

[chris_fit]

ICON 971 getting close to landfall on the east side of whatever they call the notch on the panhandle. Looks like it's going to be Tate's Hell/Alligator Point area Thursday afternoon or evening. Cat 2 on this run.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

Pretty much identical to the 06z. ICON holds.

[sweetpea]

ICON 971 getting close to landfall on the east side of whatever they call the notch on the panhandle. Looks like it's going to be Tate's Hell/Alligator Point area Thursday afternoon or evening. Cat 2 on this run.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

Not liking this here at all in Sopchoppy.I live about 3 miles from the gulf, I am in evac zone A. Booked a hotel in North Tally yesterday for Wednesday-Saturday, this storm is going to be so big wasn't sure what direction to even head to. Didn't want to go too far away. If it stays cat 2 and under we will most likely stay, our house was built to withstand 130 mph winds. Anything over that we are out. Nerve racking, busy couple of days. Stay safe everyone.

[Steve]

ICON 971 getting close to landfall on the east side of whatever they call the notch on the panhandle. Looks like it's going to be Tate's Hell/Alligator Point area Thursday afternoon or evening. Cat 2 on this run.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

Not liking this here at all in Sopchoppy.I live about 3 miles from the gulf, I am in evac zone A. Booked a hotel in North Tally yesterday for Wednesday-Saturday, this storm is going to be so big wasn't sure what direction to even head to. Didn't want to go too far away. If it stays cat 2 and under we will most likely stay, our house was built to withstand 130 mph winds. Anything over that we are out. Nerve racking, busy couple of days. Stay safe everyone.

You'd be near the center on the ICON. You'd either get the eye or the western eyewall most likely. Landfall is Thursday 4pm on this run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2312&fh=81

[StPeteMike]

ICON 971 getting close to landfall on the east side of whatever they call the notch on the panhandle. Looks like it's going to be Tate's Hell/Alligator Point area Thursday afternoon or evening. Cat 2 on this run.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

Not liking this here at all in Sopchoppy.I live about 3 miles from the gulf, I am in evac zone A. Booked a hotel in North Tally yesterday for Wednesday-Saturday, this storm is going to be so big wasn't sure what direction to even head to. Didn't want to go too far away. If it stays cat 2 and under we will most likely stay, our house was built to withstand 130 mph winds. Anything over that we are out. Nerve racking, busy couple of days. Stay safe everyone.

Not to be a doomer, but I don’t see her staying under Cat 3 status.

[Jr0d]

The trough in my opinion is a bigger factor on the future track than where the center forms. While having a defined center will help the model output, being able to predict the timing and depth of the trough and the cutoff ULL that forms is vital.

Hopefully they are launching extra weather balloons over the CONUS for better and more data points for the model inputs.

It does appear the models are showing 97L (future Helene) and the ULL forms doing a bit of a Fujiwara dance before it ultimately gets absorbed by the ULL.

Clearly I am no expert or even adept at weather guessing but I do think this cutoff ULL will add even more complexity to the forecast than normal, given it's location and movement will directly influence 97L.

[ROCK]

ICON 971 getting close to landfall on the east side of whatever they call the notch on the panhandle. Looks like it's going to be Tate's Hell/Alligator Point area Thursday afternoon or evening. Cat 2 on this run.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

Timing really the trof doesn't dig enough to slam it into Tampa. Got to say that we all have seen what the loop current did to Charly in 2004. JOM, I am leaning more on the high end side. The HWRF / HMON models haven't ran yet. I think they need to like soon.