ATL: HELENE - Models

[Steve]

The trough in my opinion is a bigger factor on the future track that where the center forms. While having a defined center will help the model output, being able to predict the timing and depth of the trough and the cutoff ULL that forms is vital.

Hopefully they are launching extra weather balloons over the CONUS for better and more data points for the model inputs.

It does appear the models are showing 97L (future Helene) and the ULL forms doing a bit of a Fujiwara dance before it ultimately gets absorbed by the ULL.

Clearly I am no expert or adept at weather guessing but I do think this cutoff ULL will add even more complexity to the forecast than normal, given it's location and movement will directly influence 97L.

With the ICON, it basically brings it almost due north o Kentucky through 102 hours as it's peeling energy off of it inland. Atlanta, Chattanooga, Knoxville and possibly Lexington look to be the inland cities in the ICON's path as well as the western half of Georgia.

[sweetpea]

ICON 971 getting close to landfall on the east side of whatever they call the notch on the panhandle. Looks like it's going to be Tate's Hell/Alligator Point area Thursday afternoon or evening. Cat 2 on this run.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

Not liking this here at all in Sopchoppy.I live about 3 miles from the gulf, I am in evac zone A. Booked a hotel in North Tally yesterday for Wednesday-Saturday, this storm is going to be so big wasn't sure what direction to even head to. Didn't want to go too far away. If it stays cat 2 and under we will most likely stay, our house was built to withstand 130 mph winds. Anything over that we are out. Nerve racking, busy couple of days. Stay safe everyone.

You'd be near the center on the ICON. You'd either get the eye or the western eyewall most likely. Landfall is Thursday 4pm on this run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2312&fh=81

Yes, when I did closest approach it had it 4.71 miles from my house.

[cheezyWXguy]

I’d feel more comfortable for the Tampa area if the model tracks were either already south of Tampa or way west. Looking back to Ian, as soon as the tracks shifted south of Tampa, they stayed there for good. It’s hard to ignore the potential for eastward shifts from the current projections, and it wouldn’t take a much deeper or faster trough to put this storm there. The area may dodge another bullet but I wouldn’t be taking the chance at this point

[ROCK]

ICON 971 getting close to landfall on the east side of whatever they call the notch on the panhandle. Looks like it's going to be Tate's Hell/Alligator Point area Thursday afternoon or evening. Cat 2 on this run.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

Timing really the trof doesn't dig enough to slam it into Tampa. Got to say that we all have seen what the loop current did to Charly in 2004. JOM, I am leaning more on the high end side. The HWRF / HMON models haven't ran yet. I think they need to like soon.

and like right on queue they showed up...lol

[StPeteMike]

Take it back, still the 06z

[Blown Away]

Sniffing 12z GFS may throw a curveball run.

[StPeteMike]

Sniffing 12z GFS may throw a curveball run.

I think you can tell the generally direction with the moisture envelope to the NNE/NE once it’s in the lower GoM. We shall see the next few runs.

[DunedinDave]

This 12z GFS run is not funny at all.

[NDG]

12z GFS has a stronger cut off ML low coming down west of the MS river, so as soon as PTC9 leaves the Yucatan Channel it starts tracking NNE.

[chris_fit]

12z GFS looks similar to the 06Z - maybe a hair west?

[DunedinDave]

So the GFS basically does what the ICON does. It has Helene on a beeline for Tampa Bay and turns it north at the last second as the trough lifts. Talk about having to get the timing perfect. If that trough lifts like 4-5 hours later it trucks right into the mouth of Tampa Bay.

[NDG]

12z GFS slightly west of its 06z run, but still slightly east of its 0z run.
It is getting fairly consistent on its landfall forecast.

[Noles2016]

12z GFS looks similar to the 06Z - maybe a hair west?

Yup

Pretty similar run.

[Powellrm]

ICON 971 getting close to landfall on the east side of whatever they call the notch on the panhandle. Looks like it's going to be Tate's Hell/Alligator Point area Thursday afternoon or evening. Cat 2 on this run.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

Not liking this here at all in Sopchoppy.I live about 3 miles from the gulf, I am in evac zone A. Booked a hotel in North Tally yesterday for Wednesday-Saturday, this storm is going to be so big wasn't sure what direction to even head to. Didn't want to go too far away. If it stays cat 2 and under we will most likely stay, our house was built to withstand 130 mph winds. Anything over that we are out. Nerve racking, busy couple of days. Stay safe everyone.

Not to be a doomer, but I don’t see her staying under Cat 3 status.

Same. I’ve felt like this will be one that maximizes it’s potential while over favorable conditions, and potentially exceed expectations. In spite of wind sheer, but we will need to see how that unfolds. Fortunately it’s going to be a quick mover, which is just about the only positive thing I can think of.

[NDG]

Being 78 hrs from landfall the cone of uncertainty can still be fairly wide just like what happened with Francine which ended up on its eastern side of the cone..
Tampa Bay has to keep its guard up.

[wx98]

12z GFS coming in just a few miles west of the 6z into the Big Bend Thursday evening.

[BobHarlem]

12z Canadian a few miles west of the 0z, near Apalachicola as a cat 2.

[Powellrm]

At this point in time it would appear we are focused on two variables: how far east or west this storm actually develops and how far south the trough will extend.

[tolakram]

GFS landfall, and it's moving rapidly NE.

[tolakram]

ICON