ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Ian's first advisory was PTC 9 also, fwiw, so even if not an I storm...

Ida and Harvey were also 9 so looks like we might have a 9 curse now as well lol

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1838249583895511084

[tolakram]

Intensity forecasts are bad almost equally in both directions. If you live in the warned area you should be preparing for the worst, and preparations should already be done. I work with a guy who has a house in the warned area. I gave him a heads up a few days ago, he instituted his plan just in case and is away from the coast. I understand not everyone can do that, but don't play a game with your life and guessing what this storm is going to do. Weak, strong, left side of cone, right side of cone. If you've been following hurricane seasons for a while your only conclusion should be that the NHC has a reasonably accurate idea where the storm will go but only a fuzzy idea of intensity.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looks like a CAT2 according to latest guidance from NHC. Nothing more than a Francine type of hurricane. But prepare for 1 category higher as typical.

I would take that cat 2 with a pinch of salt. most off the models are predicting 4 to 5, take care and stay safe everyone

OK follow the models then.

Francine was a sloppy borderline cat 2. I suspect this will be significantly more organized than Francine ever was.

[cycloneye]

Plane has entered the NW Caribbean so we will know shortly what they find.

[Blown Away]

Plane has entered the NW Caribbean so we will know shortly what they find.

https://i.imgur.com/iDRaIO3.png

18.3N/82W my guess.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is no repeat of Idalia. Impacts will be felt across the entire state of Florida.

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1838250111547175138

[ConvergenceZone]

I have a couple of questions for those who've tracked canes longer than I have.

#1, is it possible for a hurricane that will be moving around 25 mph to still get really strong?

and

#2 Are there any big name hurricanes in the past that have moved as a fast or faster as this one is predicted to move?

I can't remember ever seeing a potentially destructive landfalling hurricane that will be moving this fast. I mean you can imagine a car driving 25 mph, that's fast! I guess it's great news for rain impacts though. Also, it makes me wonder if it's moving this fast, won't that mean more damage further inland since it takes awhile for winds to decrease?

[InfernoFlameCat]

I have a couple of questions for those who've tracked canes longer than I have.

#1, is it possible for a hurricane that will be moving around 25 mph to still get really strong?

and

#2 Are there any big name hurricanes in the past that have moved as a fast or faster as this one is predicted to move?

I can't remember ever seeing a potentially destructive landfalling hurricane that will be moving this fast. I mean you can imagine a car driving 25 mph, that's fast! I guess it's great news for rain impacts though. Also, it makes me wonder if it's moving this fast, won't that mean more damage further inland since it takes awhile for winds to decrease?

I believe Michael was moving quite quickly. Im not sure it it was as fast as 25 mph but it was moving relatively fast.

[wx98]

I have a couple of questions for those who've tracked canes longer than I have.

#1, is it possible for a hurricane that will be moving around 25 mph to still get really strong?

and

#2 Are there any big name hurricanes in the past that have moved as a fast or faster as this one is predicted to move?

I can't remember ever seeing a potentially destructive landfalling hurricane that will be moving this fast. I mean you can imagine a car driving 25 mph, that's fast! I guess it's great news for rain impacts though. Also, it makes me wonder if it's moving this fast, won't that mean more damage further inland since it takes awhile for winds to decrease?

Long Island Express, 1938

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I have a couple of questions for those who've tracked canes longer than I have.

#1, is it possible for a hurricane that will be moving around 25 mph to still get really strong?

and

#2 Are there any big name hurricanes in the past that have moved as a fast or faster as this one is predicted to move?

I can't remember ever seeing a potentially destructive landfalling hurricane that will be moving this fast. I mean you can imagine a car driving 25 mph, that's fast! I guess it's great news for rain impacts though. Also, it makes me wonder if it's moving this fast, won't that mean more damage further inland since it takes awhile for winds to decrease?

Charlie was really racing too. And in fact, the storm's forward speed can add mph to the wind speeds circulating around it in that right front quadrant.

[HurryKane]

I have a couple of questions for those who've tracked canes longer than I have.

#1, is it possible for a hurricane that will be moving around 25 mph to still get really strong?

and

#2 Are there any big name hurricanes in the past that have moved as a fast or faster as this one is predicted to move?

I can't remember ever seeing a potentially destructive landfalling hurricane that will be moving this fast. I mean you can imagine a car driving 25 mph, that's fast! I guess it's great news for rain impacts though. Also, it makes me wonder if it's moving this fast, won't that mean more damage further inland since it takes awhile for winds to decrease?

I believe Michael was moving quite quickly. Im not sure it it was as fast as 25 mph but it was moving relatively fast.

According to the NHC archive, Michael came ashore at around 12-13 mph forward speed. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/I ... _with_line

I had thought Ida might have been moving very fast because it was only three days from PTC to US landfall but it too was around 12-13 mph forward speed.

[SouthFLTropics]

I have a couple of questions for those who've tracked canes longer than I have.

#1, is it possible for a hurricane that will be moving around 25 mph to still get really strong?

and

#2 Are there any big name hurricanes in the past that have moved as a fast or faster as this one is predicted to move?

I can't remember ever seeing a potentially destructive landfalling hurricane that will be moving this fast. I mean you can imagine a car driving 25 mph, that's fast! I guess it's great news for rain impacts though. Also, it makes me wonder if it's moving this fast, won't that mean more damage further inland since it takes awhile for winds to decrease?

Beryl earlier this year was moving at 22 MPH while a Cat 5. If I'm not mistaken, that is the fastest forward speed for a Cat 5 ever recorded.

[kevin]

I have a couple of questions for those who've tracked canes longer than I have.

#1, is it possible for a hurricane that will be moving around 25 mph to still get really strong?

and

#2 Are there any big name hurricanes in the past that have moved as a fast or faster as this one is predicted to move?

I can't remember ever seeing a potentially destructive landfalling hurricane that will be moving this fast. I mean you can imagine a car driving 25 mph, that's fast! I guess it's great news for rain impacts though. Also, it makes me wonder if it's moving this fast, won't that mean more damage further inland since it takes awhile for winds to decrease?

I believe Michael was moving quite quickly. Im not sure it it was as fast as 25 mph but it was moving relatively fast.

Michael was moving at 14 mph at landfall according to the advisories at the time. Later that day after landfall it was moving at 20 mph.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I have a couple of questions for those who've tracked canes longer than I have.

#1, is it possible for a hurricane that will be moving around 25 mph to still get really strong?

and

#2 Are there any big name hurricanes in the past that have moved as a fast or faster as this one is predicted to move?

I can't remember ever seeing a potentially destructive landfalling hurricane that will be moving this fast. I mean you can imagine a car driving 25 mph, that's fast! I guess it's great news for rain impacts though. Also, it makes me wonder if it's moving this fast, won't that mean more damage further inland since it takes awhile for winds to decrease?

Charlie was really racing too. And in fact, the storm's forward speed can add mph to the wind speeds circulating around it in that right front quadrant.

Let me rephrase, the effect is like adding the forward speed to the hurricane's established wind speed.

[ChrisH-UK]

Radar out from Grand Cayman not showing much in terms of a circulation yet.

Grand Cayman Radar - https://www.weather.gov.ky/radar

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I have a couple of questions for those who've tracked canes longer than I have.

#1, is it possible for a hurricane that will be moving around 25 mph to still get really strong?

and

#2 Are there any big name hurricanes in the past that have moved as a fast or faster as this one is predicted to move?

I can't remember ever seeing a potentially destructive landfalling hurricane that will be moving this fast. I mean you can imagine a car driving 25 mph, that's fast! I guess it's great news for rain impacts though. Also, it makes me wonder if it's moving this fast, won't that mean more damage further inland since it takes awhile for winds to decrease?

As Charley advanced, traveling faster than 20 m.p.h., eastern Florida residents made preparations while those on the west coast were already assessing the damage.

[MetroMike]

Levi Cowen just dropped a new Video on YouTube

[Teban54]

I have a couple of questions for those who've tracked canes longer than I have.

#1, is it possible for a hurricane that will be moving around 25 mph to still get really strong?

and

#2 Are there any big name hurricanes in the past that have moved as a fast or faster as this one is predicted to move?

I can't remember ever seeing a potentially destructive landfalling hurricane that will be moving this fast. I mean you can imagine a car driving 25 mph, that's fast! I guess it's great news for rain impacts though. Also, it makes me wonder if it's moving this fast, won't that mean more damage further inland since it takes awhile for winds to decrease?

I believe Michael was moving quite quickly. Im not sure it it was as fast as 25 mph but it was moving relatively fast.

Michael was moving at 14 mph at landfall, and 12 mph throughout most of the Gulf, according to NHC's advisory archives. Here are a few other storms:

• Charley: 18-20 mph in the Gulf, 22 mph at landfall
• Laura: 20 mph when first entering Gulf, 15-17 mph in most of the Gulf
• Ida: 15-16 mph
• Idalia: 14-18 mph

The fastest-moving storm in the GoM on record is Nate 2017, which moved at 26 mph at one point.

According to Advisory 1's forecasts, PTC 9 won't be moving at 25 mph or nearly as fast as Nate, however. The 60h and 72h forecast points are about 208 miles apart for a speed of 17.3 mph.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, plane has decended to operational altitude so let's see what data they find.