WPAC: INVEST 93W

[Hayabusa]

93W INVEST 240922 1800 19.5N 107.3E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 230230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/230230Z-230600ZSEP2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220751ZSEP2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 22SEP24 0600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 118.5E, APPROXIMATELY 164 NM WEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN,
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 220900) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.3N
107.3E, APPROXIMATELY 146 NM NORTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 222316Z F-17 SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC),
WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION COMPLETELY OBSCURING THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES 93W IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE
TO WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT OFFSET BY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON QUICK CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD HAINAN. HOWEVER, THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF 93W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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[underthwx]

Looks like shear will keep this in check?...

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 230600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/230600Z-240600ZSEP2024//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.3N 107.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 107.2E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DA NANG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION ALONG A FRONTAL REGION WITH ENHANCED 15-20KT NORTH-
NORTHEASTERLY WIND AND MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SPEEDS CONVERGING
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OF 20-30 KNOTS, WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 DEGREES C. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93W WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER HAINAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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