Blown Away wrote:cycloneye wrote:Plane has entered the NW Caribbean so we will know shortly what they find.
https://i.imgur.com/iDRaIO3.png
18.3N/82W my guess.
Very close maybe 18.2 -82W
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Blown Away wrote:cycloneye wrote:Plane has entered the NW Caribbean so we will know shortly what they find.
https://i.imgur.com/iDRaIO3.png
18.3N/82W my guess.
mpic wrote:https://www.facebook.com/share/v/xjURMrYiiU98U6is/?mibextid=oFDknkPipelines182 wrote:I really really hate the way the NHC issues these intensity forecasts. I think their estimate is fine, but they really need to do a better job of broadcasting the ceiling on this storm is significantly higher than 95kt. Most people don't read anymore except for headlines, all they're going to see is "forecast to make landfall as a cat 2". When in reality they need to be seeing "forecast to make landfall anywhere from Cat 2 - 4".
Dr.Rhome just did a Facebook live and I was really impressed with it. He emphasized really well the importance of not depending on the cone for intensity and suggested the real possibility of a Cat 3.
Pipelines182 wrote:psyclone wrote:The radii of gale and storm force winds may ultimately prove more important than absolute peak intensity as this system is moving toward an area insanely vulnerable to surge. Steve Lyons on TWC used to say that Apalachee bay is the most surge prone area in the entire Atlantic basin. I believe it. Another high water mark at St Marks looks like a given if the center moves near or west of there. The surge risk in the nature coast and down the west coast will be highly dependent on how large and how close the storm tracks to the coast but it looks to be substantial and worthy of evacuations...
I would agree with that, but it's also one the least populated part of the Florida coastline, it's all mangroves there. Hurricanes also seem to make landfall in this region more than anywhere else on the west coast (maybe that's recency bias?) I often wonder if part of the reason this section of the coast is the way it is is due to tropical systems, and also part of the reason why very few people live there.
ConvergenceZone wrote:thanks everyone on your posts on the speed of previous storms. Based on those previous storms forward speed that everyone posted, it looks like this may break a record in forward speed since this storm suppose to move around 20 knots / 23 MPH or so. At least that means it will be in and out very quickly. So at least there's that good news.
Lightning48 wrote:Is the possibility of East shifts still possible?
underthwx wrote:What worries me...are the NHC intensities listed in the first advisory on PTC 9......I will not be surprised to see these intensities rise....as the soon to be cyclone gains strength....not to be an alarmist....but these possibilities have already justified everyone's immediate attention....give thought to getting out of this systems way....until it passes....I am so sorty yall have to go thru this.....true that....
Lightning48 wrote:St.Pete Mike- there's people in our area that don't even know it's hurricane season!! That is sad because you never know what might happen. The complacency is mind boggling!
TallyTracker wrote:underthwx wrote:What worries me...are the NHC intensities listed in the first advisory on PTC 9......I will not be surprised to see these intensities rise....as the soon to be cyclone gains strength....not to be an alarmist....but these possibilities have already justified everyone's immediate attention....give thought to getting out of this systems way....until it passes....I am so sorty yall have to go thru this.....true that....
Got my hotel tentatively booked in Alabama. If it shifts west, I shift west too.
Nederlander wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:thanks everyone on your posts on the speed of previous storms. Based on those previous storms forward speed that everyone posted, it looks like this may break a record in forward speed since this storm suppose to move around 20 knots / 23 MPH or so. At least that means it will be in and out very quickly. So at least there's that good news.
If it gets to moving that fast, it may very well struggle to maintain a stacked core and limit the strengthening potential
sweetpea wrote:TallyTracker wrote:underthwx wrote:What worries me...are the NHC intensities listed in the first advisory on PTC 9......I will not be surprised to see these intensities rise....as the soon to be cyclone gains strength....not to be an alarmist....but these possibilities have already justified everyone's immediate attention....give thought to getting out of this systems way....until it passes....I am so sorty yall have to go thru this.....true that....
Got my hotel tentatively booked in Alabama. If it shifts west, I shift west too.
I am in Sopchoppy and booked a hotel in northern Tally yesterday, but, I am rethinking that right now. Might head Alabama way. I just didn't want to be too far away. Stay safe!
Pipelines182 wrote:wx98 wrote:3090 wrote:Not speculating. I am going only bY OFFICIAL NHC forecast. Anything lower or higher is highly speculative. There is a lot of times too much hysteria by the non professionals.
I am sure there will be updates up/down in forecast intensity as it evolves like always. Stay the course. Be vigilant. And pay sttention to the NHC OFFICIAL products issued.
I think you are misunderstanding the NHC forecast process and trying to use it as justification for insinuating that this storm won’t get as strong as most think. The intensity forecast will only go up with time.
He's a great example of why I believe the NHC needs to change their NHC intensity forecast products. I ran into it with Michael, so many people only see that one number and say "that's the forecast!" when in reality the forecast is for a wide intensity range, most people just don't read the discussion.
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