ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5300
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#321 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:13 pm

Blown Away wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Plane has entered the NW Caribbean so we will know shortly what they find.

https://i.imgur.com/iDRaIO3.png


18.3N/82W my guess.


Very close maybe 18.2 -82W
0 likes   

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#322 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:16 pm

thanks everyone on your posts on the speed of previous storms. Based on those previous storms forward speed that everyone posted, it looks like this may break a record in forward speed since this storm suppose to move around 20 knots / 23 MPH or so. At least that means it will be in and out very quickly. So at least there's that good news.
0 likes   

Michele B
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1114
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:08 am
Location: SWFL

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#323 Postby Michele B » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:20 pm

mpic wrote:
Pipelines182 wrote:I really really hate the way the NHC issues these intensity forecasts. I think their estimate is fine, but they really need to do a better job of broadcasting the ceiling on this storm is significantly higher than 95kt. Most people don't read anymore except for headlines, all they're going to see is "forecast to make landfall as a cat 2". When in reality they need to be seeing "forecast to make landfall anywhere from Cat 2 - 4".
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/xjURMrYiiU98U6is/?mibextid=oFDknk
Dr.Rhome just did a Facebook live and I was really impressed with it. He emphasized really well the importance of not depending on the cone for intensity and suggested the real possibility of a Cat 3.


I guess we're putting up our shutters tomorrow! Not so much expecting a full-blown hurricane, but spin-ups of tornadoes and the *possibility* that this thing could decide to visit SW FL - again - like it's brothers and sisters have of late.

Other hurricane preparations are ALWAYS done. The shutters are the last thing we do, and we wait until there is an actual threat. This one is too unpredictable to mess around with.

And too little lead time will be left if we wait much longer.
2 likes   
Cleo - 1964, Betsy - 1965, David - 1979, Andrew - 1992, Charlie (Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) - 2004, Irma - 2017, Ian - 2022

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145299
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#324 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:20 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Michele B
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1114
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:08 am
Location: SWFL

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#325 Postby Michele B » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:23 pm

Pipelines182 wrote:
psyclone wrote:The radii of gale and storm force winds may ultimately prove more important than absolute peak intensity as this system is moving toward an area insanely vulnerable to surge. Steve Lyons on TWC used to say that Apalachee bay is the most surge prone area in the entire Atlantic basin. I believe it. Another high water mark at St Marks looks like a given if the center moves near or west of there. The surge risk in the nature coast and down the west coast will be highly dependent on how large and how close the storm tracks to the coast but it looks to be substantial and worthy of evacuations...


I would agree with that, but it's also one the least populated part of the Florida coastline, it's all mangroves there. Hurricanes also seem to make landfall in this region more than anywhere else on the west coast (maybe that's recency bias?) I often wonder if part of the reason this section of the coast is the way it is is due to tropical systems, and also part of the reason why very few people live there.


It's low density population because of the mangroves and "swampy" land there. That said, however, because it is very swampy, or WET, the storm will not "slam" into land and become weaker or dissipate....it can remain quite strong as it goes quite far inland.
1 likes   
Cleo - 1964, Betsy - 1965, David - 1979, Andrew - 1992, Charlie (Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) - 2004, Irma - 2017, Ian - 2022

Lightning48
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2022 12:06 pm

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#326 Postby Lightning48 » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:29 pm

Is the possibility of East shifts still possible?
0 likes   

Nederlander
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1250
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:28 pm
Location: Conroe, TX

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#327 Postby Nederlander » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:30 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:thanks everyone on your posts on the speed of previous storms. Based on those previous storms forward speed that everyone posted, it looks like this may break a record in forward speed since this storm suppose to move around 20 knots / 23 MPH or so. At least that means it will be in and out very quickly. So at least there's that good news.

If it gets to moving that fast, it may very well struggle to maintain a stacked core and limit the strengthening potential
1 likes   

User avatar
StPeteMike
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 631
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:26 pm

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#328 Postby StPeteMike » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:35 pm

Lightning48 wrote:Is the possibility of East shifts still possible?

For sure, could also go west as well. These are the nail biter ones where someone will only have a 2 days to really get their stuff in order and boarded up.

Unfortunately, I feel like if our area was told to prepare for a storm, there’s a lot that will say “we’ve been here before” and stay put. There’s already many that don’t even know there’s a threat in the Caribbean with possible landfall on Thursday/Friday.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9155
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#329 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:36 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
Jr0d
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1409
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 am
Location: Cayo Hueso

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#330 Postby Jr0d » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:37 pm

We may be seeing a center trying to form around 18N 82W, looks a bit like a naked swirl trying to get going. We will see what recon says shortly.

5 likes   

Lightning48
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2022 12:06 pm

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#331 Postby Lightning48 » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:45 pm

St.Pete Mike- there's people in our area that don't even know it's hurricane season!! That is sad because you never know what might happen. The complacency is mind boggling!
2 likes   

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2079
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#332 Postby Blinhart » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:47 pm

so would there be major West shifts if this system moves a lot slower than predicted? Since the storm moves West further along in the predicted cone?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5899
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#333 Postby MGC » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:47 pm

Recon is going to find a weak loose circulation SW of Grand Cayman. Depending on how quickly PTC9 gets convection going could have major impacts on intensity as the cyclone nears SE Gulf Coast. Would not be surprised if the NHC is under estimating intensity. Those hurricane model runs are impressive. Models has shown a west bias when a trough is pushing in from the NW so would not be surprised if landfall is in the eastern section of the cone......MGC
3 likes   

TallyTracker
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 734
Joined: Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:46 pm

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#334 Postby TallyTracker » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:49 pm

underthwx wrote:What worries me...are the NHC intensities listed in the first advisory on PTC 9......I will not be surprised to see these intensities rise....as the soon to be cyclone gains strength....not to be an alarmist....but these possibilities have already justified everyone's immediate attention....give thought to getting out of this systems way....until it passes....I am so sorty yall have to go thru this.....true that....


Got my hotel tentatively booked in Alabama. If it shifts west, I shift west too.
2 likes   
Fran '96, Georges '98, Gordon '00, Gabrielle '01, Charley '04, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Barry '07, Fay '08, Debby '12, Matthew '16, Emily '17, Irma '17, Michael ‘18, Elsa ‘21, Fred ‘21, Mindy ‘21, Nicole ‘22, Idalia ‘23, Debby ‘24, Helene ‘24

xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2522
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#335 Postby xironman » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:49 pm

Not much is going to happen until it is somewhere that the upper winds are not shredding it.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
StPeteMike
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 631
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:26 pm

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#336 Postby StPeteMike » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:49 pm

Lightning48 wrote:St.Pete Mike- there's people in our area that don't even know it's hurricane season!! That is sad because you never know what might happen. The complacency is mind boggling!

I haven’t met any that have thought that but I have talked to a few that think the season is over because they were told the peak was 2 weeks ago and it was quiet.

As we have seen with late September/October storms, troughs can throw off a track. Not saying this is the case, but I still remember the panic before Irma in this area. I was also working at a Target at this time, so very fond memories.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
sweetpea
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 858
Age: 58
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:49 pm
Location: Sopchoppy, FL

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#337 Postby sweetpea » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:53 pm

TallyTracker wrote:
underthwx wrote:What worries me...are the NHC intensities listed in the first advisory on PTC 9......I will not be surprised to see these intensities rise....as the soon to be cyclone gains strength....not to be an alarmist....but these possibilities have already justified everyone's immediate attention....give thought to getting out of this systems way....until it passes....I am so sorty yall have to go thru this.....true that....


Got my hotel tentatively booked in Alabama. If it shifts west, I shift west too.


I am in Sopchoppy and booked a hotel in northern Tally yesterday, but, I am rethinking that right now. Might head Alabama way. I just didn't want to be too far away. Stay safe!
3 likes   

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#338 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:58 pm

Nederlander wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:thanks everyone on your posts on the speed of previous storms. Based on those previous storms forward speed that everyone posted, it looks like this may break a record in forward speed since this storm suppose to move around 20 knots / 23 MPH or so. At least that means it will be in and out very quickly. So at least there's that good news.

If it gets to moving that fast, it may very well struggle to maintain a stacked core and limit the strengthening potential


I'm thinking the same thing. It's probably also why WXMAN' s forecast is on the lower end only expecting a 75 knot cane, due to it's incredible forward speed.
0 likes   

underthwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2360
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:14 pm
Location: Brazoria County Texas

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#339 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 23, 2024 1:05 pm

sweetpea wrote:
TallyTracker wrote:
underthwx wrote:What worries me...are the NHC intensities listed in the first advisory on PTC 9......I will not be surprised to see these intensities rise....as the soon to be cyclone gains strength....not to be an alarmist....but these possibilities have already justified everyone's immediate attention....give thought to getting out of this systems way....until it passes....I am so sorty yall have to go thru this.....true that....


Got my hotel tentatively booked in Alabama. If it shifts west, I shift west too.


I am in Sopchoppy and booked a hotel in northern Tally yesterday, but, I am rethinking that right now. Might head Alabama way. I just didn't want to be too far away. Stay safe!

We gots room for all yall right here.....my door is always open....that wayy....I dont have to worry bout yall being safe....this is one cyclone...that I hope even tha storm chasers will sit out....tha emergency services officials will have enough to deal with......just everyone....please.....if u can.....take a trip this week....get out of harms wayy....and stayy informed right here.....peace out yall!!!...
Last edited by underthwx on Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
5 likes   

3090
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 549
Age: 65
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2011 4:01 pm

Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#340 Postby 3090 » Mon Sep 23, 2024 1:07 pm

Pipelines182 wrote:
wx98 wrote:
3090 wrote:Not speculating. I am going only bY OFFICIAL NHC forecast. Anything lower or higher is highly speculative. There is a lot of times too much hysteria by the non professionals.

I am sure there will be updates up/down in forecast intensity as it evolves like always. Stay the course. Be vigilant. And pay sttention to the NHC OFFICIAL products issued.


I think you are misunderstanding the NHC forecast process and trying to use it as justification for insinuating that this storm won’t get as strong as most think. The intensity forecast will only go up with time.


He's a great example of why I believe the NHC needs to change their NHC intensity forecast products. I ran into it with Michael, so many people only see that one number and say "that's the forecast!" when in reality the forecast is for a wide intensity range, most people just don't read the discussion.


And then on the flip side there are those that enjoy the sensationlized aspect of danger. It goes both ways. I err on the side of being a current realist and let the developmenting situation unfold. I am in no way stating anything profoundly wrong here. I am posting the real and simple fact it is currently expected to be a CAT2 by landfall. Nothing less nothing more. Pretty simple.

All being said. I can read and comprehend very well thank you. And to those in the projected path stay alert get ready and MOVE as soon as possible in the event this comes your way. Regardless of intensity it makes ZERO sense to stay in the path of any hurricane if you can leave to safe ground for a day or two.
1 likes   


Return to “2024”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest