ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Anti-freeze]

Number nine, number nine, number nine, number nine....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNdcFPjGsm8

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

It seems like there are quite a few of us on here from Pinellas County. We should have our own thread as/if this thing gets closer to any Tampa Bay impact.
(I'm near the little Clearwater airport (Drew/Keene/Hercules area). Actually, in a major hurricane, I think it's the only airport that stays dry in a CAT 3 surge scenario with a storm coming into Tampa Bay from the south until you get in towards Plant City. My prepper self figured that it would be a perfect spot for a POD to set up, as it is also very close to the railroad too. After living on Treasure Island, I was determined to move inland a little and be completely out of a flood zone and be more "convenient" if a really big storm were to hit.

[3090]

Not much is going to happen until it is somewhere that the upper winds are not shredding it.

https://i.imgur.com/5F4m8up.gif

Shreading is always a beautiful thing. Is it not?

[cycloneye]

There is the broad center that the plane moved thru.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

There is the broad center that the plane moved thru.

https://i.imgur.com/vIGDQ8f.png

Pretty much exactly where the NHC pegged it.

[chaser1]

I'm seeing a westward moving LLC at about 18.2N and 82W but not yet sold on this as the core vortex for the structure. I'm suspicious that an MLC might exist/be forming a bit east (perhaps ESE) of that point. Will have to see as this evolves. Sounds and looks to me like there's quite the spread on intensity forecast depending of course on who one listens to. Sure.... forward motion can act as an impediment for RI but I think this may be more a factor of any given storms core/vertical structure and of course the overall upper environment. Beryl along with present HAFS modeling represent the possible but I'd be reluctant to try and nail down landfall or max intensity until an actual defined center has developed. Seems like the NHC has a decent bead on this with this forecast as a TS at 8:00am tomm morning. Looking at vis sat., I'm almost wondering if that could occur as early as 11:00pm tonight?
Finally, though..... THEN the models will be well worth watching.

[StPeteMike]

It seems like there are quite a few of us on here from Pinellas County. We should have our own thread as/if this thing gets closer to any Tampa Bay impact.
(I'm near the little Clearwater airport (Drew/Keene/Hercules area). Actually, in a major hurricane, I think it's the only airport that stays dry in a CAT 3 surge scenario with a storm coming into Tampa Bay from the south until you get in towards Plant City. My prepper self figured that it would be a perfect spot for a POD to set up, as it is also very close to the railroad too. After living on Treasure Island, I was determined to move inland a little and be completely out of a flood zone and be more "convenient" if a really big storm were to hit.

Just north of Downtown St. Pete, luckily closer to the interstate and away from the coast. Even if this goes to the Big Bend region, still think much of the coastal county will see 6ft surge.

[TallyTracker]

Deleted double post

[Hammy]

I think you are misunderstanding the NHC forecast process and trying to use it as justification for insinuating that this storm won’t get as strong as most think. The intensity forecast will only go up with time.

He's a great example of why I believe the NHC needs to change their NHC intensity forecast products. I ran into it with Michael, so many people only see that one number and say "that's the forecast!" when in reality the forecast is for a wide intensity range, most people just don't read the discussion.

And then on the flip side there are those that enjoy the sensationlized aspect of danger. It goes both ways. I err on the side of being a current realist and let the developmenting situation unfold. I am in no way stating anything profoundly wrong here. I am posting the real and simple fact it is currently expected to be a CAT2 by landfall. Nothing less nothing more. Pretty simple.

All being said. I can read and comprehend very well thank you. And to those in the projected path stay alert get ready and MOVE as soon as possible in the event this comes your way. Regardless of intensity it makes ZERO sense to stay in the path of any hurricane if you can leave to safe ground for a day or two.

And they always say prepare for a category higher, so people need to be prepared for at least a 3.

[TallyTracker]

What worries me...are the NHC intensities listed in the first advisory on PTC 9......I will not be surprised to see these intensities rise....as the soon to be cyclone gains strength....not to be an alarmist....but these possibilities have already justified everyone's immediate attention....give thought to getting out of this systems way....until it passes....I am so sorty yall have to go thru this.....true that....

Got my hotel tentatively booked in Alabama. If it shifts west, I shift west too.

I am in Sopchoppy and booked a hotel in northern Tally yesterday, but, I am rethinking that right now. Might head Alabama way. I just didn't want to be too far away. Stay safe!

The trees in Tally could bring down the power grid for weeks. We lost much of the power grid from tornadoes in May which were much more concentrated. I think parts of Tallahassee will be impassable for weeks if the current path holds.

[tolakram]

thanks everyone on your posts on the speed of previous storms. Based on those previous storms forward speed that everyone posted, it looks like this may break a record in forward speed since this storm suppose to move around 20 knots / 23 MPH or so. At least that means it will be in and out very quickly. So at least there's that good news.

I would urge you to review Wilma and it's impacts as it raced across Florida. 25mph forward speed, cleared Florida in just over 4 hours, left a huge swath of damage and power outages. Surge was a big deal, but the scale of the damage for a fast moving storm is what creates a huge problem.

[StPeteMike]

I'm seeing a westward moving LLC at about 18.2N and 82W but not yet sold on this as the core vortex for the structure. I'm suspicious that an MLC might exist/be forming a bit east (perhaps ESE) of that point. Will have to see as this evolves. Sounds and looks to me like there's quite the spread on intensity forecast depending of course on who one listens to. Sure.... forward motion can act as an impediment for RI but I think this may be more a factor of any given storms core/vertical structure and of course the overall upper environment. Beryl along with present HAFS modeling represent the possible but I'd be reluctant to try and nail down landfall or max intensity until an actual defined center has developed. Seems like the NHC has a decent bead on this with this forecast as a TS at 8:00am tomm morning. Looking at vis sat., I'm almost wondering if that could occur as early as 11:00pm tonight?
Finally, though..... THEN the models will be well worth watching.

HWRF had TS formation in 9 hours of its run. I wouldn’t rule it out. That still gives it a day in the Caribbean before entering the GoM.

[Teban54]

thanks everyone on your posts on the speed of previous storms. Based on those previous storms forward speed that everyone posted, it looks like this may break a record in forward speed since this storm suppose to move around 20 knots / 23 MPH or so. At least that means it will be in and out very quickly. So at least there's that good news.

I would urge you to review Wilma and it's impacts as it raced across Florida. 25mph forward speed, cleared Florida in less than 4 hours, left a huge swath of damage.

Also, as I said here, NHC currently expects PTC 9 to traverse the Gulf at a speed of around 17.3 mph, not 25. I don't even know where the 25 mph figure came from.

[Cat5James]

It seems like there are quite a few of us on here from Pinellas County. We should have our own thread as/if this thing gets closer to any Tampa Bay impact.
(I'm near the little Clearwater airport (Drew/Keene/Hercules area). Actually, in a major hurricane, I think it's the only airport that stays dry in a CAT 3 surge scenario with a storm coming into Tampa Bay from the south until you get in towards Plant City. My prepper self figured that it would be a perfect spot for a POD to set up, as it is also very close to the railroad too. After living on Treasure Island, I was determined to move inland a little and be completely out of a flood zone and be more "convenient" if a really big storm were to hit.

I’m your neighbor to the south (Manatee County)

[TallyTracker]

I was looking at the surge maps on the NHC site. Much of the Tampa Bay coastline is expected to go under 9+ feet of water. Parts of Pinellas County may become islands. The inundation up the river systems may get close to Leon County south of Tallahassee. That’s crazy water levels.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/153941.shtml?inundation#contents

[cheezyWXguy]

While recon data confirms the exposed low level swirl as the current circulation center, it does appear to be on the periphery of the overall envelope. Obvious mlc to the east may try to drill down to the surface if convection remains persistent

[jlauderdal]

New Bernie Rayno Video, he made a good call last Friday on track and intensity.

https://bit.ly/3zhJFBG

[DunedinDave]

I was looking at the surge maps on the NHC site. Much of the Tampa Bay coastline is expected to go under 9+ feet of water. Parts of Pinellas County may become islands. The inundation up the river systems may get close to Leon County south of Tallahassee. That crazy water levels.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/153941.shtml?inundation#contents

If you take the HWRF strength and use the GFS track, there will be incredible storm surge in Tampa Bay unlike anything the people there have ever seen before.

[sweetpea]

Got my hotel tentatively booked in Alabama. If it shifts west, I shift west too.

I am in Sopchoppy and booked a hotel in northern Tally yesterday, but, I am rethinking that right now. Might head Alabama way. I just didn't want to be too far away. Stay safe!

The trees in Tally could bring down the power grid for weeks. We lost much of the power grid from tornadoes in May which were much more concentrated. I think parts of Tallahassee will be impassable for weeks if the current path holds.

Good point, ughhh, Guess I will look into somewhere West. Stay safe

[StPeteMike]

I was looking at the surge maps on the NHC site. Much of the Tampa Bay coastline is expected to go under 9+ feet of water. Parts of Pinellas County may become islands. The inundation up the river systems may get close to Leon County south of Tallahassee. That crazy water levels.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/153941.shtml?inundation#contents

And that’s on a track that keeps landfall around the Big Bend area.