ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Pipelines182]

I find a llc relocation unlikely here, that center is way too large and defined. Typically relocations occur with much smaller circulations.

[wxman57]

It seems like there are quite a few of us on here from Pinellas County. We should have our own thread as/if this thing gets closer to any Tampa Bay impact.
(I'm near the little Clearwater airport (Drew/Keene/Hercules area). Actually, in a major hurricane, I think it's the only airport that stays dry in a CAT 3 surge scenario with a storm coming into Tampa Bay from the south until you get in towards Plant City. My prepper self figured that it would be a perfect spot for a POD to set up, as it is also very close to the railroad too. After living on Treasure Island, I was determined to move inland a little and be completely out of a flood zone and be more "convenient" if a really big storm were to hit.

Right around the corner from you off Keene/Union in a non-evac zone. We should have a local impacts/preps thread going soon.

Could be 5-10 ft into Tampa Bay Thursday morning. Strong southerly flow into the bay east of the center. Very large wind field east of the track.

[AutoPenalti]

Don't think there's a relocation. They are doing the next pass.

[chaser1]

I'd wait for a NE-SW pass to be sure but the current recon data sure does look like a tropical storm, albeit one that is tilted east to west. With that convection blowing up to the east of the LLC a center reformation could be likely though.

I'm on board with the "tilted TS" thoughts here. And also, yes, we could see a center relocation. Last couple frames of visible satellite look to show the original vortex/LLC fizzling out to me. IF we get a relocation east, that's going to be an issue for ultimately landfall point IMO. In Sarasota and don't THINK Helene landfalls this far south. But not 100% out of the question, either.

If a small eastward relocation were to occur, the deviation might or might not play to great of a change to the point of final landfall, but COULD have a significant impact on the storm affects that those of you on the W. Coast experience especially if that means a parallel storm track that much closer to the coastline

[psyclone]

It seems like there are quite a few of us on here from Pinellas County. We should have our own thread as/if this thing gets closer to any Tampa Bay impact.
(I'm near the little Clearwater airport (Drew/Keene/Hercules area). Actually, in a major hurricane, I think it's the only airport that stays dry in a CAT 3 surge scenario with a storm coming into Tampa Bay from the south until you get in towards Plant City. My prepper self figured that it would be a perfect spot for a POD to set up, as it is also very close to the railroad too. After living on Treasure Island, I was determined to move inland a little and be completely out of a flood zone and be more "convenient" if a really big storm were to hit.

Countryside area here. Close to US19 and Curlew

Countryside here. Hello neighbor. I just went to the Publix at boot ranch and there is no evidence of storm related shopping....yet. I am not the least surprised either..

[MississippiWx]

I don't know if this reaches classified TC criteria just yet. It's very broad with a loosely defined circulation. I would imagine we will be waiting until tonight for classification. It's close, but still work to do (in my opinion).

Regardless, dangerous looking system for the NE Gulf Coast area later this week.

[StormPyrate]

It seems like there are quite a few of us on here from Pinellas County. We should have our own thread as/if this thing gets closer to any Tampa Bay impact.
(I'm near the little Clearwater airport (Drew/Keene/Hercules area). Actually, in a major hurricane, I think it's the only airport that stays dry in a CAT 3 surge scenario with a storm coming into Tampa Bay from the south until you get in towards Plant City. My prepper self figured that it would be a perfect spot for a POD to set up, as it is also very close to the railroad too. After living on Treasure Island, I was determined to move inland a little and be completely out of a flood zone and be more "convenient" if a really big storm were to hit.

Countryside area here. Close to US19 and Curlew

Countryside here. Hello neighbor. I just went to the Publix at boot ranch and there is no evidence of storm related shopping....yet. I am not the least surprised either..

There are lots of us on here, I shop countryside often just for the pepper palace. We are just south of 60 Gulf to Bay Whithney Parks area. Already done preps

[HurricaneBelle]

It seems like there are quite a few of us on here from Pinellas County. We should have our own thread as/if this thing gets closer to any Tampa Bay impact.
(I'm near the little Clearwater airport (Drew/Keene/Hercules area). Actually, in a major hurricane, I think it's the only airport that stays dry in a CAT 3 surge scenario with a storm coming into Tampa Bay from the south until you get in towards Plant City. My prepper self figured that it would be a perfect spot for a POD to set up, as it is also very close to the railroad too. After living on Treasure Island, I was determined to move inland a little and be completely out of a flood zone and be more "convenient" if a really big storm were to hit.

Countryside area here. Close to US19 and Curlew

Countryside here. Hello neighbor. I just went to the Publix at boot ranch and there is no evidence of storm related shopping....yet. I am not the least surprised either..

Same here, went to the N Clearwater Publix on Belcher and there was water as far as the eye could see (on sale) and very few people with it in their shopping carts other than me.

Also at the Belcher/Drew 7-11 I stopped to fill my tank and they jacked up the prices literally as I was standing there with debit card in hand - it said $3.12 and then "changing prices" appeared on the display and I had to pay $3.19.

[StPeteMike]

I'd wait for a NE-SW pass to be sure but the current recon data sure does look like a tropical storm, albeit one that is tilted east to west. With that convection blowing up to the east of the LLC a center reformation could be likely though.

I'm on board with the "tilted TS" thoughts here. And also, yes, we could see a center relocation. Last couple frames of visible satellite look to show the original vortex/LLC fizzling out to me. IF we get a relocation east, that's going to be an issue for ultimately landfall point IMO. In Sarasota and don't THINK Helene landfalls this far south. But not 100% out of the question, either.

If a small eastward relocation were to occur, the deviation might or might not play to great of a change to the point of final landfall, but COULD have a significant impact on the storm affects that those of you on the W. Coast experience especially if that means a parallel storm track that much closer to the coastline

I’m with the HWRF of this thing being closer to or over the Western tip of Cuba than HAFS A/B has her.

[Pipelines182]

I don't know if this reaches classified TC criteria just yet. It's very broad with a loosely defined circulation. I would imagine we will be waiting until tonight for classification. It's close, but still work to do (in my opinion).

Regardless, dangerous looking system for the NE Gulf Coast area later this week.

If this system was out in the middle of the Atlantic, no way it gets name as it currently stands, as you said it's too broad and there's no convection over the center. Because of where it is though they may pull the trigger sooner than they would normally.

[StormPyrate]

I don't know if this reaches classified TC criteria just yet. It's very broad with a loosely defined circulation. I would imagine we will be waiting until tonight for classification. It's close, but still work to do (in my opinion).

Regardless, dangerous looking system for the NE Gulf Coast area later this week.

If this system was out in the middle of the Atlantic, no way it gets name as it currently stands, as you said it's too broad and there's no convection over the center. Because of where it is though they may pull the trigger sooner than they would normally.

But its not, and shares little with a wave axis storm in the open atlantic

[Nimbus]

This is a good benchmark, Idalia peaked near 130 MPH winds but was just far enough offshore Tampa bay that we avoided some of the worst catastrophic flood surge.

"Aug 29, 2023 — At 11 p.m., the center of Hurricane Idalia was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 84.5 West, or 125 miles west of Tampa"

GFS has this a quarter degree closer to Tampa bay and it *might* be a stronger storm but the official forecast track hasn't been decided yet.

[eastcoastFL]

I have a couple of questions for those who've tracked canes longer than I have.

#1, is it possible for a hurricane that will be moving around 25 mph to still get really strong?

and

#2 Are there any big name hurricanes in the past that have moved as a fast or faster as this one is predicted to move?

I can't remember ever seeing a potentially destructive landfalling hurricane that will be moving this fast. I mean you can imagine a car driving 25 mph, that's fast! I guess it's great news for rain impacts though. Also, it makes me wonder if it's moving this fast, won't that mean more damage further inland since it takes awhile for winds to decrease?

Wilma was moving pretty fast across the state. The problem was that she didn't lose any of her punch because she was moving so fast across flat wetlands so it hit both sides of the state with a heavy punch.

[Bigpapa]

It seems like there are quite a few of us on here from Pinellas County. We should have our own thread as/if this thing gets closer to any Tampa Bay impact.
(I'm near the little Clearwater airport (Drew/Keene/Hercules area). Actually, in a major hurricane, I think it's the only airport that stays dry in a CAT 3 surge scenario with a storm coming into Tampa Bay from the south until you get in towards Plant City. My prepper self figured that it would be a perfect spot for a POD to set up, as it is also very close to the railroad too. After living on Treasure Island, I was determined to move inland a little and be completely out of a flood zone and be more "convenient" if a really big storm were to hit.

Countryside area here. Close to US19 and Curlew

Countryside here. Hello neighbor. I just went to the Publix at boot ranch and there is no evidence of storm related shopping....yet. I am not the least surprised either..

Pretty well set here, just need a couple more bottles of propane for the grills. Governor just put our county and several others under state of emergency

[StPeteMike]

I was too fixated on my region that I’m just seeing the potential storm surge advisory has 9 feet or higher all the way down to Punta Gorda/Englewood!

This could be historic if this were to occur.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... n#contents

[Hurricaneman]

The center or vortmax that the recon found seems to be rotating around an area of broader low pressure farther east, seems as though we have multiple vortices similar to such systems as Michael in 2018 in its formative stages,not expecting anything of that caliber but be vigilant

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks better organized, more convection is firing off on the western hemisphere of the system. Should be a TD later tonight.

It'll be interesting to see if the MLC tries to take over as the main center of circulation.

[MississippiWx]

I don't know if this reaches classified TC criteria just yet. It's very broad with a loosely defined circulation. I would imagine we will be waiting until tonight for classification. It's close, but still work to do (in my opinion).

Regardless, dangerous looking system for the NE Gulf Coast area later this week.

If this system was out in the middle of the Atlantic, no way it gets name as it currently stands, as you said it's too broad and there's no convection over the center. Because of where it is though they may pull the trigger sooner than they would normally.

Yep, I could see that too. I think the need for this type of thinking has diminished, however, with the PTC Advisories. They can still show forecasts without official declaration of a TC. All semantics, of course. We know this is likely to be a beast.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks better organized, more convection is firing off on the western hemisphere of the system. Should be a TD later tonight.

It'll be interesting to see if the MLC tries to take over as the main center of circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/PWusmOg.jpeg

One could argue based on smrf that it is already a 45 knot tropical storm.

[Pipelines182]

I don't know if this reaches classified TC criteria just yet. It's very broad with a loosely defined circulation. I would imagine we will be waiting until tonight for classification. It's close, but still work to do (in my opinion).

Regardless, dangerous looking system for the NE Gulf Coast area later this week.

If this system was out in the middle of the Atlantic, no way it gets name as it currently stands, as you said it's too broad and there's no convection over the center. Because of where it is though they may pull the trigger sooner than they would normally.

But its not, and shares little with a wave axis storm in the open atlantic

The criteria is the same, doesn't matter its origins. The NHC uses a bit of judgement when declaring storms and doesn't always go by the strict definition, and location is typically a big factor.