ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#401 Postby psyclone » Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:16 pm

Nice primitive banding in the northern semi circle. This rocket is gonna launch soon
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#402 Postby chaser1 » Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:21 pm

I'm seeing potential MLC reformation at about 18.0 and 80.6
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#403 Postby 5t0rmsguy » Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:22 pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 92312&fh=6 HAFS-B and those other HAFS models are also showing similar things
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#404 Postby jdjaguar » Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:23 pm

caneman wrote:
TampaCE wrote:
StPeteMike wrote:Just north of Downtown St. Pete, luckily closer to the interstate and away from the coast. Even if this goes to the Big Bend region, still think much of the coastal county will see 6ft surge.


I’m in Shore Acres and am already getting ready to leave. If this surge forecast plays out the entire neighborhood will be under several feet of water.


Near Indian Rocks beach here. Pretty much the most Western part on the Penisula.


Caneman, My son lives right across the intracoastal from Indian Rocks Beach. He does not seem to be concerned about surge. What are your plans?

regards,

jad
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#405 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:23 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Looks better organized, more convection is firing off on the western hemisphere of the system. Should be a TD later tonight.


It'll be interesting to see if the MLC tries to take over as the main center of circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/PWusmOg.jpeg

Massive moisture envelope with #9!!
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#406 Postby TallyTracker » Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:25 pm

Leon County has opened sand bag locations. We got a few inches of rain in a supercell on Wednesday that flooded parts of Tallahassee. Flooding may be a significant problem due to the saturated ground. May also help bring more trees down even if it’s a brush versus a direct hit.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#407 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:26 pm

Recon seems to have found a center relocation in the convection 1007mb as opposed to the center they found earlier which wasn’t below 1008mb. This could be the beginning of real organization
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#408 Postby caneman » Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:27 pm

jdjaguar wrote:
caneman wrote:
TampaCE wrote:
I’m in Shore Acres and am already getting ready to leave. If this surge forecast plays out the entire neighborhood will be under several feet of water.


Near Indian Rocks beach here. Pretty much the most Western part on the Penisula.


Caneman, My son lives right across the intracoastal from Indian Rocks Beach. He does not seem to be concerned about surge. What are your plans?

regards,

jad


That is about where I live just on the eastern side of the intercostal. My house fortunately is about 20 feet up so I'm not worried. Everything else around me would likely be flooded though. It all depends how high above sea level is he?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#409 Postby HurricaneBelle » Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:28 pm

Official forecast from NWS Tampa Bay:

WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING, THEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. EAST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
70S. EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH, INCREASING
TO SOUTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.

THURSDAY
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN
90 PERCENT.

THURSDAY NIGHT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE
LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.


Put up a weather station last week at the house my sons got me as a birthday gift. It had been pretty boring with no weather of significance since, but that's coming to an end. Will probably have to take it down at the last minute before things get too bad.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#410 Postby chaser1 » Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:35 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:Official forecast from NWS Tampa Bay:

WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING, THEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. EAST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
70S. EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH, INCREASING
TO SOUTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.

THURSDAY
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN
90 PERCENT.

THURSDAY NIGHT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE
LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.


Put up a weather station last week at the house my sons got me as a birthday gift. It had been pretty boring with no weather of significance since, but that's coming to an end. Will probably have to take it down at the last minute before things get too bad.


No?! Let that anemometer rip! Maybe just reinforce the pole? There's several others here who also have stations set up. They'd probably be a great source of insight regarding that stuff.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#411 Postby StormPyrate » Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:35 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:Official forecast from NWS Tampa Bay:

Put up a weather station last week at the house my sons got me as a birthday gift. It had been pretty boring with no weather of significance since, but that's coming to an end. Will probably have to take it down at the last minute before things get too bad.

Mine has been up for 3 years now, it handles TSs pretty well
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#412 Postby Pipelines182 » Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:35 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Recon seems to have found a center relocation in the convection 1007mb as opposed to the center they found earlier which wasn’t below 1008mb. This could be the beginning of real organization
not seeing an LLC relocation per recon, seems to be in the same general area it was before.

Thunderstorms have pressure drops on their own, pretty common to see these thunderstorms have lower pressure than the center when storms are just forming and there has been no deepening/stacking yet.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#413 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:35 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Recon seems to have found a center relocation in the convection 1007mb as opposed to the center they found earlier which wasn’t below 1008mb. This could be the beginning of real organization

Not sure. Seems to be doing a second pass right now.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#414 Postby HurricaneBelle » Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:36 pm

StormPyrate wrote:
HurricaneBelle wrote:Official forecast from NWS Tampa Bay:

Put up a weather station last week at the house my sons got me as a birthday gift. It had been pretty boring with no weather of significance since, but that's coming to an end. Will probably have to take it down at the last minute before things get too bad.

Mine has been up for 3 years now, it handles TSs pretty well


Mine is a small one screwed onto a wooden fence, it's not on a pole. It'll be toast if winds starting getting up in the 50s and beyond.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#415 Postby chaser1 » Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:38 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Recon seems to have found a center relocation in the convection 1007mb as opposed to the center they found earlier which wasn’t below 1008mb. This could be the beginning of real organization


I'll be curious to see if it turns out to be due east, or a bit south and east :think:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#416 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:39 pm

State of Emergency declared along west coast of Florida and Panhandle


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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#417 Postby jdjaguar » Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:41 pm

caneman wrote:
jdjaguar wrote:
caneman wrote:
Near Indian Rocks beach here. Pretty much the most Western part on the Penisula.


Caneman, My son lives right across the intracoastal from Indian Rocks Beach. He does not seem to be concerned about surge. What are your plans?

regards,

jad


That is about where I live just on the eastern side of the intercostal. My house fortunately is about 20 feet up so I'm not worried. Everything else around me would likely be flooded though. It all depends how high above sea level is he?


Not exactly sure the exact elevation, but I am sure he knows as he is a Civil Engineer by trade.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#418 Postby Stormish » Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:42 pm

caneman wrote:
jdjaguar wrote:
caneman wrote:
Near Indian Rocks beach here. Pretty much the most Western part on the Penisula.


Caneman, My son lives right across the intracoastal from Indian Rocks Beach. He does not seem to be concerned about surge. What are your plans?

regards,

jad


That is about where I live just on the eastern side of the intercostal. My house fortunately is about 20 feet up so I'm not worried. Everything else around me would likely be flooded though. It all depends how high above sea level is he?


Used to live in Seminole, just across the intracoastal from Indian Shores. Luckily there is high ground there and we were out of evac zones (about 40ft asl) but still evacuated for Irma and would do so for this if it had a chance to hook east. Home Depot sold out of all plywood fast but kept restocking. Same with gas stations in the area which was the most scarce resource I saw. Between gas shortages, few evac routes, and quick flooding even with normal summer afternoon rains, I wouldn't wait till last minute to leave. Stay safe all!
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#419 Postby photon » Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:42 pm

wxman57 wrote:
HurricaneBelle wrote:
TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:It seems like there are quite a few of us on here from Pinellas County. We should have our own thread as/if this thing gets closer to any Tampa Bay impact.
(I'm near the little Clearwater airport (Drew/Keene/Hercules area). Actually, in a major hurricane, I think it's the only airport that stays dry in a CAT 3 surge scenario with a storm coming into Tampa Bay from the south until you get in towards Plant City. My prepper self figured that it would be a perfect spot for a POD to set up, as it is also very close to the railroad too. After living on Treasure Island, I was determined to move inland a little and be completely out of a flood zone and be more "convenient" if a really big storm were to hit.


Right around the corner from you off Keene/Union in a non-evac zone. We should have a local impacts/preps thread going soon.


Could be 5-10 ft into Tampa Bay Thursday morning. Strong southerly flow into the bay east of the center. Very large wind field east of the track.


Wow, a lot of neighbors!
I'm at the corner of Airport rd. & Gilbert.
KFLCLEAR275
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Re: ATL: NINE - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

#420 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:43 pm

chaser1 wrote:
HurricaneBelle wrote:Official forecast from NWS Tampa Bay:

WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE MORNING, THEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. EAST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
70S. EAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH, INCREASING
TO SOUTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.

THURSDAY
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN
90 PERCENT.

THURSDAY NIGHT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE
LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.


Put up a weather station last week at the house my sons got me as a birthday gift. It had been pretty boring with no weather of significance since, but that's coming to an end. Will probably have to take it down at the last minute before things get too bad.


No?! Let that anemometer rip! Maybe just reinforce the pole? There's several others here who also have stations set up. They'd probably be a great source of insight regarding that stuff.


My PWS is good for 100 mph, at 200 bucks this baby would come down with this storm as wind data is much cheaper to find elsewhere :lol:
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