ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

Well, I cant say that we are necessarily closer to this being classified as a TD or TS in terms of organization and banding however convection continues to expand over what I continue to think is a reorganizing COC. The LLC on the west side of the convection seemed far more discernable earlier this afternoon and overall, I am not seeing much in terms of overall forward motion.

[tolakram]

saved loop


source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-200-1-10-2&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[ChrisH-UK]

PTC-9 3 hour loop.

[aspen]

Don’t know why the NHC kept this at TD strength when recon clearly supports 40 kt.

[Travorum]

Don’t know why the NHC kept this at TD strength when recon clearly supports 40 kt.

Yeah, I can understand not pulling the trigger on a TC given the broad circulation, but in no way does recon only support 30kts.

[chaser1]

In the "for what it's worth" category, today's 18Z forecast at 48 hours still depicts Helene at the NE tip of Yucatan (perhaps just a smidge further south than prior run). What I found interesting was it's pressure 983mb was a little weaker than the prior 4 GFS model runs. Point simply being that it just might be going through the typical process of organizing rather than taking off to the races quite yet.

[DunedinDave]

Still think a new center is trying to form in the MLC spot closer to the thunderstorms and south of Caymans. Not sure the naked swirl will remain the dominant center but we'll see.

[Nuno]

I thought recon found evidence enough to warrant an upgrade? Not even a TD?

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/ericburriswesh/status/1838312675563954628

[chaser1]

Btw and as noted by another poster earlier today, NHC now forecasting a major.

Once again, the statistical RI guidance (SHIPS and DTOPS) show a
65-kt increase in 72 h is very likely, and the updated NHC forecast
now explicitly shows the system reaching major hurricane intensity
on Thursday. This intensity forecast still lies below the consensus
aids, with the regional hurricane models and the GFS showing even
more deepening.

[canes92]

Hurricane Florence in 1953 might be a good comparison for this storm.

[tolakram]

Different sat view. I also think center is reforming or getting pulled under that convection.

[aspen]

Don’t know why the NHC kept this at TD strength when recon clearly supports 40 kt.

Yeah, I can understand not pulling the trigger on a TC given the broad circulation, but in no way does recon only support 30kts.

There wasn’t even a mention of recon in the discussion, which is odd because data from the first pass was available hours ago.

[LandoWill]

They can say all they want that the forecast hasn't changed, it actually has. This is why i keep both the old graphic and new graphics open, so i can see the change with each update. Here is the 11am


and here is the 5pm
[img]https://ibb.co/L5dcvbD][/img]

Clearly... slight west shift in their track.

Seems images aren't loading, but it's clear shift to the west slightly

[Sciencerocks]

Don’t know why the NHC kept this at TD strength when recon clearly supports 40 kt.

I don't understand why they didn't give it the name Helene either. The recon shown a well defined llc but the same question was asked of 96L a few days ago.

[cycloneye]

[Pipelines182]

Don’t know why the NHC kept this at TD strength when recon clearly supports 40 kt.

I don't understand why they didn't give it the name Helene either. The recon shown a well defined llc but the same question was asked of 96L a few days ago.

The requirements for a tropical cyclone required sustained convection, nine has been nothing but a naked swirl all day.

[tolakram]

They can say all they want that the forecast hasn't changed, it actually has. This is why i keep both the old graphic and new graphics open, so i can see the change with each update. Here is the 11am
https://ibb.co/9Tf77x7

and here is the 5pm
https://ibb.co/L5dcvbD

Clearly... slight west shift in their track.

Not sure what happened to your images. You can look at the NHC archive here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/NINE_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind

Are you saying what you have saved is different from these two frames?

[psyclone]

Definitely a tick west on the 5 pm but it's not significant. Nevertheless...any deviation westward...even minute...is good for west coasters...at the expense of folks a little farther west in the panhandle..

[Canelaw99]

:double:



 https://x.com/ericburriswesh/status/1838312675563954628

Have any idea how accurate their in-house model is?