ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Travorum]

Regardless of any potential center reformation there is a steady deepening trend, down to 1005.0mb on the most recent pass. Still a very broad pressure gradient though.

[beachnut]

They can say all they want that the forecast hasn't changed, it actually has. This is why i keep both the old graphic and new graphics open, so i can see the change with each update. Here is the 11am
https://ibb.co/9Tf77x7

and here is the 5pm
[url]https://ibb.co/L5dcvbD][url]https://i.ibb.co/L5dcvbD/image.png[/url]

Clearly... slight west shift in their track.

Seems images aren't loading, but it's clear shift to the west slightly

Interesting. Keep going west baby!

[DunedinDave]

Definitely a tick west on the 5 pm but it's not significant. Nevertheless...any deviation westward...even minute...is good for west coasters...at the expense of folks a little farther west in the panhandle..

Well the first 18z model came out…the ICON…and it is the first landfall I’ve seen south of Cedar Key. So I’m wondering if this is the start of a trend or simply an outlier.

[LandoWill]

They can say all they want that the forecast hasn't changed, it actually has. This is why i keep both the old graphic and new graphics open, so i can see the change with each update. Here is the 11am
https://ibb.co/9Tf77x7

and here is the 5pm
https://ibb.co/L5dcvbD

Clearly... slight west shift in their track.

Not sure what happened to your images. You can look at the NHC archive here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/NINE_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind

Are you saying what you have saved is different from these two frames?

Thanks for the link to the archives. the 5pm is different slightly. of course it can change, i was just going by the discussion saying the forecasted track was the same.

[chaser1]

I could be wrong but i'm guessing we'll start seeing some banding start to take place tonight, but for now..... dinner!

[Hammy]

Which model set will the recon data get fed into?

[jlauderdal]

Definitely a tick west on the 5 pm but it's not significant. Nevertheless...any deviation westward...even minute...is good for west coasters...at the expense of folks a little farther west in the panhandle..

Well the first 18z model came out…the ICON…and it is the first landfall I’ve seen south of Cedar Key. So I’m wondering if this is the start of a trend or simply an outlier.

The trend has been east for 36 hours. Anyone on the right side of the track within 100 miles needs to be preparing for a major hurricane, including Key West. NHC usually nails it, but even if they "nail" it, small deviations make huge differences extrapolated over time.

[wxman57]

If I was in Tampa, I would be VERY concerned looking at the 18Z ICON. A large Cat 3 passing just offshore could push over 20 ft. of water into Tampa Bay. Just a small heading change on Wednesday could be very bad for the Tampa Bay area. ICON has done very well with Gulf storms this year. Let's hope it's not right with this one. However, if I lived in a surge zone around Tampa then I'd be thinking about potential evacuation Wednesday if the track shifts east.

[South Texas Storms]

I've said this before and I'll say it again. Tropical systems getting picked up by troughs almost always go east of where the models indicate a few days out. Saw it with Beryl and Debby and I bet we see it again with this one. Regardless of where it makes landfall, much of the Florida Peninsula will be on the dirty side, with strong winds and heavy rainfall likely across a large part of the region.

Note that the apparent NHC track shift west may be due to an interpolation issue between 24 hr points. I don't think they are shifting the track west.

[ConvergenceZone]

If I was in Tampa, I would be VERY concerned looking at the 18Z ICON. A large Cat 3 passing just offshore could push over 20 ft. of water into Tampa Bay. Just a small heading change on Wednesday could be very bad for the Tampa Bay area. ICON has done very well with Gulf storms this year. Let's hope it's not right with this one. However, if I lived in a surge zone around Tampa then I'd be thinking about potential evacuation Wednesday if the track shifts east.

Yikes, that's one scary message from WXMAN. Let's hope the other models don't pick up on this and also shift east.. He's right about the ICON though. It's done very well this season on track

[psyclone]

If I was in Tampa, I would be VERY concerned looking at the 18Z ICON. A large Cat 3 passing just offshore could push over 20 ft. of water into Tampa Bay. Just a small heading change on Wednesday could be very bad for the Tampa Bay area. ICON has done very well with Gulf storms this year. Let's hope it's not right with this one. However, if I lived in a surge zone around Tampa then I'd be thinking about potential evacuation Wednesday if the track shifts east.

I'm sitting right at the top of tampa bay near the canal that connects the bay to lake Tarpon...a max slosh zone...thankfully on higher ground but very close to areas like Oldsmar that would take on massive surge. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't just a tad uneasy...brave face notwithstanding. We have so much at risk because we have been spared for so long. Huge trees, beautiful low lying barrier island beaches...all on a peninsula on a peninsula jutting into the gulf. How we've been so lucky for so long...it's most likely just a remarkable fluke...which may or may not come to an end soon.

[chris_fit]

If I was in Tampa, I would be VERY concerned looking at the 18Z ICON. A large Cat 3 passing just offshore could push over 20 ft. of water into Tampa Bay. Just a small heading change on Wednesday could be very bad for the Tampa Bay area. ICON has done very well with Gulf storms this year. Let's hope it's not right with this one. However, if I lived in a surge zone around Tampa then I'd be thinking about potential evacuation Wednesday if the track shifts east.

Yikes, that's one scary message from WXMAN. Let's huope he isn't right and the track doesn't shift east..

Yea, this coming from wxman57 is no bueno. Will need to take this a little more seriously in Manatee county, if the 18z GFS and Euro also shift right.

[Nimbus]

They can say all they want that the forecast hasn't changed, it actually has. This is why i keep both the old graphic and new graphics open, so i can see the change with each update. Here is the 11am
https://ibb.co/9Tf77x7

and here is the 5pm
https://ibb.co/L5dcvbD

Clearly... slight west shift in their track.

Not sure what happened to your images. You can look at the NHC archive here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/NINE_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind

Are you saying what you have saved is different from these two frames?

Tampa Bay not in the cone for this update but Tallahassee is now being potentially targeted?
Tallahassee missed the worst of Idalia because they were on the weak side of the storm.

[eastcoastFL]

I've said this before and I'll say it again. Tropical systems getting picked up by troughs almost always go east of where the models indicate a few days out. Saw it with Beryl and Debby and I bet we see it again with this one. Regardless of where it makes landfall, much of the Florida Peninsula will be on the dirty side, with strong winds and heavy rainfall likely across a large part of the region.

Note that the apparent NHC track shift west may be due to an interpolation issue between 24 hr points. I don't think they are shifting the track west.

Also with a storm of this size and forecasted magnitude just a wobble here and there can increase impacts significantly. Especially with how they keep noting that effects will be felt well to the east of center.

[jfk08c]

Ft Myers was on the very far right edge of the cone 3 days out with Ian. Not the same setup but just a reminder that a lot can change in 3 days

[HurricaneBelle]

Tampa Bay not in the cone for this update but Tallahassee is now being potentially targeted?
Tallahassee missed the worst of Idalia because they were on the weak side of the storm.

The cone has nothing to do specifically with impacts.

[rigbyrigz]

I understand there are less populated areas and such that might offer "best case" for many. Here south of Perry with 2 direct hurricane hits in less than 2 years and lots of damage, a trend like the latest ICON means less for us maybe from Helene. But I am not wishing for Tampa to be sacked, or anywhere else. I wish people would quit saying good or bad when a trend develops... some folks are gonna be hit bad regardless, and we should strive to get the best guess out there so all can prepare without qualifying it as good in any way, really. TY.

[caneman]

Man, hearing wxmn57 say that who always seems to rightfully down play the hype with systems is flat out chilling!

[jasons2k]

I don’t like the trends today. I have an aunt and uncle on the Interbay peninsula. It is on one of the highest points though. And I have an aunt and some property located in Dunedin Isles. This might bring the surge I had once feared with Irma. We’ll see. Tampa Bay has been dodging bullets so far, maybe the streak can continue.

NGL — I don’t like Tampa being situated on the right edge of the cone - in the midrange forecast - of a rapidly strengthening hurricane being picked up by a trough. These things often hook right and this time Tampa is on the right. A few eastern shifts of that track will be really bad news for the Pinellas Suncoast down to Fort Myers.

[Jonny]

 https://x.com/floridatropics1/status/1838272585219363112


Certain counties are likely just for precaution, but still need to keep watch.