ATL: HELENE - Models

[lsuhurricane]

If that ICON track comes to pass…..Tampa will be devastated

[MetroMike]

[ronjon]

18z ICON with a shift east. Hard to tell but it appears landfall north of Pasco county. Hard to tell. Looks like between Spring Hill and Crystal River.

That’s a significant shift East. Not as noticeable at landfall as it is once it gets into Georgia.


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Worst case scenario for Tampa Bay metro.

[tolakram]

The one model you don't want to see shift east. Will the Icon accuracy streak continue?

[ConvergenceZone]

Let's hope that ICON run isn't starting a trend, or else bye bye Tampa. Luckily it's just one model run.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z ICON with a shift east. Hard to tell but it appears landfall north of Pasco county. Hard to tell. Looks like between Spring Hill and Crystal River.

That’s a significant shift East. Not as noticeable at landfall as it is once it gets into Georgia.


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Worst case scenario for Tampa Bay metro.

Absolutely…one of the NHC’s biggest fears has always been a major making landfall just north of Tampa Bay. The entire region around the bay will be inundated.


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[ConvergenceZone]

The one model you don't want to see shift east. Will the Icon accuracy streak continue?

Yea I was thinking the same thing. It will be interesting to see if we see any shifts with GFS and EURO later.

[jlauderdal]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/fbnVx9mr/icon-mslp-wind-seus-fh48-90.gif [/url]

18z Icon… Decent shift S to just N of Tampa…

PTSD from Ian and I am on the other side of the state.

[DunedinDave]

If there’s any good news the ICON is racing and has it around cat 2 level.

[gatorcane]

Saved 18Z ICON, hope it is not the start of a trend:

[jlauderdal]

Saved 18Z ICON, hope it is not the start of a trend:
https://i.postimg.cc/nLWCwtjv/icon-mslp-wind-seus-fh45-84.gif

Hasn't the trend been east for over a day with the exception of an occasional windshield wiper?

[ronjon]

The one model you don't want to see shift east. Will the Icon accuracy streak continue?

Yea I was thinking the same thing. It will be interesting to see if we see any shifts with GFS and EURO later.

I may be staying up late for 00z model suite. Let's hope it's just a one off run from the ICON.

[SoupBone]

18z ICON with a shift east. Hard to tell but it appears landfall north of Pasco county. Hard to tell. Looks like between Spring Hill and Crystal River.

That’s a significant shift East. Not as noticeable at landfall as it is once it gets into Georgia.


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ICON seems to want to continue the trek NE, instead of looping back over Georgia and Tennessee headed NW.

[MetroMike]

[ConvergenceZone]

If there’s any good news the ICON is racing and has it around cat 2 level.

A cat 2 IF it were to hit Tampa can still be devastating.

[jfk08c]

18z ICON with a shift east. Hard to tell but it appears landfall north of Pasco county. Hard to tell. Looks like between Spring Hill and Crystal River.

That’s a significant shift East. Not as noticeable at landfall as it is once it gets into Georgia.


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ICON seems to want to continue the trek NE, instead of looping back over Georgia and Tennessee headed NW.

Looks like the trough gets a little further east before getting cut off. Would reduce the tugging to the west which makes sense

[DunedinDave]

That’s a significant shift East. Not as noticeable at landfall as it is once it gets into Georgia.


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ICON seems to want to continue the trek NE, instead of looping back over Georgia and Tennessee headed NW.

Looks like the trough gets a little further east before getting cut off. Would reduce the tugging to the west which makes sense

What's scary is if the Euro and GFS also forecast that trough moving more east, then they also are going to shift their track right. Kinda nervous about these 18z models.

[chris_fit]

If there’s any good news the ICON is racing and has it around cat 2 level.

A cat 2 IF it were to hit Tampa can still be devastating.

Debby was devastating. More than so than Irma and Ian at least here in Parrish... Just south of Tampa.

[StPeteMike]

That’s a significant shift East. Not as noticeable at landfall as it is once it gets into Georgia.


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ICON seems to want to continue the trek NE, instead of looping back over Georgia and Tennessee headed NW.

Looks like the trough gets a little further east before getting cut off. Would reduce the tugging to the west which makes sense

Unfortunately, exactly what I was expecting. The models do a lot, but boy have I see them underperform on incoming troughs. Unsure if the Euro will cave but I can see the GFS aligning with the ICON.

[ronjon]

18z GFS now running on TT. I haven't been this nervous anticipating a model run since IAN.