Texas Fall 2024

[bubba hotep]

Really nice storms IMBY this morning. About time to dust off the long-range forecasting skills and take a peek at winter

[Stratton23]

Now thats the kind of upper air pattern on the Euro 00z that could deliver some much cooler fall air to the deep south and a good chunk of the central and eastern US, good blocking on the euro

[Brent]

55 degrees this morning. Crispy

[Stratton23]

Ntxw I know its just the globals, but i am liking some of the changes in the models in regards to the upper air pattern allowing for more frequent shots of cooler air to enter the US, hopefully ensembles will start to show this, but the GFS/ Euro and CMC all show a pretty nice cool down coming, interesting

[ElectricStorm]

Tiny slight risk centered right over me

Finally had some nice storms a couple days ago after going ever an entire month with nothing so let's do it again

[ElectricStorm]

Baseball size hail in northern OKC metro

[gpsnowman]

Baseball size hail in northern OKC metro

That's a good size cell up there. Wow.

[Brent]

Baseball size hail in northern OKC metro

Some of the pictures on Facebook

[snownado]

Getting walloped right now with a severe t'storm.

Power went out briefly then popped back on for now, and had some large hail for a brief moment.

[DallasAg]

Getting walloped right now with a severe t'storm.

Power went out briefly then popped back on for now, and had some large hail for a brief moment.

Yep - rolled through North Dallas around 3:30. 1.56" IMBY in about 30 minutes along with about 90 seconds of some pretty decent hail. Not particularly big, but falling intensely. My weather station calculated a rainfall rate of 5.88"/hr at the peak...not sure I fully buy that but the rain was very intense at times - reminded me a bit of the rain/wind intensity of the June 2019 storm. Thankfully no power outages, and as best as I could tell nothing other than leaves down from the trees.

Pretty decent upside rains this week. I don't think any forecast I'd seen was calling for more than about .50" combined. I'm at 2.25". Will take it!

[CaptinCrunch]

Not a drop of rain in Dt FTW, or southern Tarrant

[rwfromkansas]

0 inches in north FW. Weird, I thought a line was supposed to sweep through, but I guess it blew up to the east. Luckily I had .70 the other day.

[CaptinCrunch]

0 inches in north FW. Weird, I thought a line was supposed to sweep through, but I guess it blew up to the east. Luckily I had .70 the other day.

It was more of a single cell complex that was in eastern Dallas Co and eastward and not the scattered showers and storms that was forecasted. DFW hit 89 yesterday after the 79 on Monday, with a few locations in NTX reaching 90.

.LONG TERM... /Issued 340 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/
/Thursday Night Onward/

No major changes to the extended forecast have occurred with the
overnight update. Near normal temperatures will prevail through
most of the period with a fairly quiet forecast in store for the
next several days.

Northerly surface winds will continue Friday with peak afternoon
gusts near 25-30 mph, as what is currently TS Helene weakens and
moves inland after its forecast landfall as a major hurricane in
Florida. As this occurs Thursday night, Helene will interact with
the upper level low situated just to our east, moving around the
northern periphery of the upper low before it becomes absorbed
into it`s stronger counterpart. Resultant moisture from the
tropical system will wrap around this low and enter eastern North
TX, allowing for low rain chances (20%) to return on Friday
generally north and east of areas from Bonham to Sulphur Springs.

The rest of the period will be rain-free with a slight warming
trend set to take place over the weekend and into early next
week. Near or slightly below normal high temperatures Friday in
the low and mid 80s will warm into the mid and upper 80s, with a
few locations hitting the low 90s Monday and Tuesday. Looking just
beyond the official forecast, a cold front looks to move through
the Plains which should bring a slight cool down midweek, but the
extent of which will likely change over the next several days.

[Stratton23]

Seeing some big changes in the GFS, and starting to reflect in the GEFS, this heat thats been plaguing the central US due to ridging and zonal flow, Its going to start to break down over the next 10-12 days as the jet stream maybe begin to have more frequent buckles allowing cooler air to spill into the country, GEFS not quite their yet, but the general trend is toward ridging backing off to the west and more lower heights over the central US, fingers crossed

[Ntxw]

There is still a lack of true cold air in the pattern. That's why the cooler results have been in the longer range. With the current very strong -NAO should've yielded a much colder outcome (going by history) it was mild Pacific air which gets us to about normal. It's going to take some time to reshuffle the Pacific enough to build cold, troughs crashing into Alaska doesn't help that. The ensembles generally still show broad warm upper pattern across the middle of the continent.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw not sure I buy the ensembles keeping the ridge centered over the central us into the long range , ensembles have a neutral PNA look, however the teleconnections strongly suggest the PNA is going to go negative, thinking we will see ensembles correct more eastward with the ridge over time

https://maps.weatherbell.com/view/oscil ... e-nhem-avg

Here is a link to the PNA forecast teleconnections

[CaptinCrunch]

Enjoy the weekend and the lower to mid 80s, but looking to next week will should see several days back into the low 90s for highs as the State Fair of Texas opens.

A rain-free and mostly seasonable forecast is in store for the
next several days. North and Central Texas will remain generally
under the influence of drier, northerly flow aloft through the
next week, with ridging situated to the west and troughing across
the eastern U.S.

Highs this weekend will reach the mid and upper 80s with overnight
lows in the low/mid 60s, with the exception of some locations out
west dropping into the upper 50s. The start of the work week will
be slightly above normal with a few readings in the low 90s as
ridging expands further east. An upper level trough will extend
south out of Canada and shift east early next week, sending a
cold front through much of the Plains and into the Midwest.
Currently, this doesn`t look to have much cold air behind it for
North & Central Texas, and will likely not have much of an impact
on temperatures; however, there is not much run to run consistency
yet on the strength of this front and how far south the trough
will dig.

[Brent]

Even our met mentioned the 90s may come back. oh and zero rain

[CaptinCrunch]

Even our met mentioned the 90s may come back.

As NTWX mentioned, there is no source of colder air to be of any significance for a big Fall cool down on the maps. Right now our source region of cold air is empty, and there is barley any snow cover in the NW Yukon Territories, let alone Siberia. When you start seeing the snow coverage maps turning white then our opportunities for true cold fronts and cool downs increase.

[Stratton23]

Pretty good bet we are done with the 90’s, maybe some upper 80’s but the 90’s are toast! And good riddance!