2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[aspen]

12z GFS drops all future development outside of the 20/70 becoming a short lived TS

Welcome back pre-PTC9 GFS

[WaveBreaking]

AI-Euro wants to develop this slow-moving wave in the Central Atlantic into another WCAR storm that stalls out and then hits S Florida. As well as the wave after the current 20/70 AOI.

[aspen]

AI-Euro wants to develop this slow-moving wave in the Central Atlantic into another WCAR storm that stalls out and then hits S Florida. As well as the wave after the current 20/70 AOI.

https://i.imgur.com/qr8Qxtd.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/cKvunSd.gif

And don’t forget that later, lower-latitude MDR storm. That wave has appeared on the regular Euro too. It’s coming off at such a low latitude that it could be a problem for the islands down the road, if it tries to develop.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

AI-Euro wants to develop this slow-moving wave in the Central Atlantic into another WCAR storm that stalls out and then hits S Florida. As well as the wave after the current 20/70 AOI.

https://i.imgur.com/qr8Qxtd.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/cKvunSd.gif

And don’t forget that later, lower-latitude MDR storm. That wave has appeared on the regular Euro too. It’s coming off at such a low latitude that it could be a problem for the islands down the road, if it tries to develop.

That last MDR storm could be Bermuda-bound.

[Stratton23]

Unfortunately we may have yet another potential CAG system to watch after helene, models are starting to see another area of low pressure pinching off from the CAG in the western caribbean in about 8-10 days, helene may not be the only system to come out of this CAG setup

[caneseddy]

Unfortunately we may have yet another potential CAG system to watch after helene, models are starting to see another area of low pressure pinching off from the CAG in the western caribbean in about 8-10 days, helene may not be the only system to come out of this CAG setup

I think the Euro AI was first to sniff it out which then sent it to South Florida. Also Canadian yesterday showed it I believe e

[Meteorcane]

Latest determnistic GFS is probably the most emphatic about it, but pretty good signal (at least for this time horizon) for a potential MDR system developing mid-late next week. Of some concern since mid-lvl ridging rebuilds pretty good over the Central Atlantic in this period, which may result in some threat to the islands. However, still being 240+ hours from any potential impacts there is still plenty of time to watch.

[SFLcane]

[Cachondo23]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/3xzHjtqj/nnnn.gif

Good old Irma-like Happy Hour

[Cachondo23]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/3xzHjtqj/nnnn.gif

Good old Irma-like Happy Hour

Last time we had CV storm in october?

[toad strangler]

Ensembles not enthused with that scenario.

[SFLcane]

Ensembles not enthused with that scenario.

There has been some noise for a while now on something trying to make it far west.

[Weathertracker96]

The 12Z Euro shows something heading towards the islands.

[toad strangler]

The 12Z Euro shows something heading towards the islands.

Euro ensembles much more enthused than GFS

[AnnularCane]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/3xzHjtqj/nnnn.gif

Looks like a bowling ball from hell.

[cycloneye]

The 12Z Euro shows something heading towards the islands.

Euro ensembles much more enthused than GFS

Do you have the graphic of the EPS ensembles?

[SFLcane]

[aspen]

:double:

https://i.postimg.cc/3xzHjtqj/nnnn.gif

Close enough, welcome back Hurricane Irma.

[cycloneye]

https://i.postimg.cc/hGSZFxNz/bbb.png

Extended CV season.

[Weathertracker96]

I’m interested to see the euro ensembles too. I do wonder if high pressure will be around or if this goes OTS. 2024 has been an unusual year so I wouldn’t be surprised if this continues west or goes north.
Can’t believe MDR season may be going into October