ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun]

I'm trying to show day vs now as it appears towers are starting to fire around the LLC.
https://i.imgur.com/ic2NECi.gif

llc west or llc east winning?

[Lance]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/50gtZzV0/IMG-0320.jpg [/url]

My thoughts on how this plays out… JMHO

While my wife would love a day off from school, I’ll have to pass on this track over my house. However, it seems reasonable since it seems a lot of these tend to hug the right side of the cone.

[DunedinDave]

Looks to me like the center is due south from Grand Cayman. Last NHC position at 5 had it west of the Caymans. So in essence, the center has actually moved right in the last 5 hours.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm trying to show day vs now as it appears towers are starting to fire around the LLC.
https://i.imgur.com/ic2NECi.gif

llc west or llc east winning?

Looks like east but have been fooled before

[Steve]

Sorry, the satellite image is not of a storm being ripped.

Its influence is waning as it pulls west. Gonna result in OG pattern reversal though which is why it is likely to ramp unless there are land interactions.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

Oh ya, that is a pretty good look at it. Probably won't be much of a factor come morning. Even less if the center is actually reforming further east.

So the way this will work is the departing/retrograding upper low will be replaced by ridging in its wake which will likely build an upper high over the system and afford it much better upper support. Stay tuned

[Frank P]

I'm trying to show day vs now as it appears towers are starting to fire around the LLC.
https://i.imgur.com/ic2NECi.gif

No doubt she’s looking much better this evening especially on the color IR images, wind shear looks less as well, I expect an upgrade at 11 tonight.

[sasha_B]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/50gtZzV0/IMG-0320.jpg [/url]

My thoughts on how this plays out… JMHO

Three landfalls - Pinar del Rio, Tampa, Charleston - as opposed to the single Florida landfall currently forecast - would be quite something. & remarkably similar to Ian's track.

[Sunnydays]

I expect an upgrade tonight as well, or early AM. They may wait for recon to verify first.

[Stormlover70]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/50gtZzV0/IMG-0320.jpg [/url]

My thoughts on how this plays out… JMHO

I hope not. Nhc is pretty accurate with track.

[redingtonbeach]

I’ve been calling for a Crystal River landfall ever since the HMON model swung far east, the first one to do so while the others were saying New Orleans or so. Just a gut feeling as I’m no MET but the 200mb and 500mb winds that day, coupled with the progression of other CONUS depictions, made sense at the time. I did not notice the stacking issue in the model, however. It just seemed to be right loaded as it entered the GOM.

[ConvergenceZone]

18Z EURO forecast - weaker at landfall. Good news. Woukd be wonderful if that trend continues.

I thought the same initially, but apparently the 18z models were ran with an incorrect center location in error, which is why they were all showing much weaker. Someone just bought that to my attention. So I guess throw those runs out. If true that means they should all be bumped up and all showing stronger next run.

[3090]

18Z EURO forecast - weaker at landfall. Good news. Woukd be wonderful if that trend continues.

I thought the same initially, but apparently the 18z models were ran with an incorrect center location in error, which is why they were all showing much weaker. Someone just bought that to my attention. So I guess throw those runs. If true that means they should all be bumped up and stronger next run.

Not sure center location as it is now relates to incorrect forecast intensity at landfall. Not certain though.

[FLLurker32]

Ok, let’s look at climatology… Currently @18.3N/82.3W and per most models going WNW to @22N/87W (@300 miles) then NNE to @30N/84.5W… This is a bizarre track, I’m sorry… I predict 1 of 2 things happen, LLC reforms NE where convection is and much less W movement before turning NNE and landfall Tampa to south… Or models continue trending W in the next 48 hours and landfall is @Apalachicola to the West… JMHO

Many on this board use to say the same about the “rare” big bend landfall. Guessing everywhere else because it seemed so unlikely. Now we’ve had numerous in recent years.

Hurricanes occur somewhat frequently between Apalachicola to Cedar Key, aka Big Bend area, but a Major Hurricane is extremely rare! Idalia barely landfalled as a MH and the models showing Cat 4/5 into Big Bend will be a first in recorded history if it happens. So betting against that is a good bet IMO.

Frequently since 2016? Yes. I’m from inland big bend area. Before 2016 we only had 2 hurricanes direct hit from the west coast within the span of 30 or so years. The current frequency is a relatively new pattern. Likewise, Idalia just hit the big bend as a cat 3/4 major last year. I wouldn’t bet on climo anywhere within big bend when it’s been in this recent pattern.

[3090]

You can see how the ULL to its WNW is having an impact on the west side with a flattened west side and elongated N/S appearance in the WV imagery.

[Steve]

Not liking this NAM 12km run. It’s likely overdone and this is out of range for any reliability. But if it’s an indicator this would become a major. Still got a day of run left.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2400&fh=57

[NDG]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1838406622374166823

[3090]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1838406622374166823

This; 100%.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don’t know if an eastern center has established itself at the surface yet, but a -80c tower just went up right about where I would expect it to be if it does exist.

[FLpanhandle91]

Boom. -80 right over the supposed LLC.

[Poonwalker]

18Z EURO forecast - weaker at landfall. Good news. Woukd be wonderful if that trend continues.

I thought the same initially, but apparently the 18z models were ran with an incorrect center location in error, which is why they were all showing much weaker. Someone just bought that to my attention. So I guess throw those runs. If true that means they should all be bumped up and stronger next run.

Not sure center location as it is now relates to incorrect forecast intensity at landfall. Not certain though.

It certainly would affect the intensity. It would allow a more vertically stacked system spend time over the carribean. Essentially launching a more organized and likely hurricane into the gulf waters.