ATL: HELENE - Models

[BobHarlem]

0z icon between Crystal River and Cedar Key, holds onto 18z track/intensity effectively, maybe slightly stronger than 18z. (High end cat 2/borderline 3)

[Category5Kaiju]

0z icon between Crystal River and Cedar Key, holds onto 18z track effectively.
https://i.imgur.com/XxeIKMc.png

https://i.imgur.com/XUp6hzC.png

Wow, that’s still dangerously close to Tampa

[DunedinDave]

Man the ICON isn’t budging.

In the end, it might be right. Hope not. People in Tampa Bay are writing this off based on “models” taking this to panhandle. Even meteorologist here said we are looking in good shape.

[Steve]

ICON +/- 970 landfall around Citrus County.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... 2400&fh=72

[Stormlover70]

Man the ICON isn’t budging.

In the end, it might be right. Hope not. People in Tampa Bay are writing this off based on “models” taking this to panhandle. Even meteorologist here said we are looking in good shape.

Not all... Denis Phillips is top notch.

[lsuhurricane]

Steve,

Its actually 964 mb on landfall per the stamp on Weathermodels

[Poonwalker]

Man the ICON isn’t budging.

In the end, it might be right. Hope not. People in Tampa Bay are writing this off based on “models” taking this to panhandle. Even meteorologist here said we are looking in good shape.

That’s nuts. This will have worse impacts to Tampa than Irma with a track like Icon or even the GFS has been doing. Most damage is caused by flooding.

[FLLurker32]

ICON +/- 970 landfall around Citrus County.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... 2400&fh=72

That could give historic or near historic winds to some of the locations along the path. Infrastructure won’t handle that well.

[Steve]

Steve,

Its actually 964 mb on landfall per the stamp on Weathermodels

https://i.postimg.cc/j5p8Ds6m/13-km-ICON-MSLP-MSLP-69-1.png

Yeah it was depicted slightly differently on pivotal. They use a different 6 hour sequence so it doesn’t show hour 69.

[Poonwalker]

I’d rather they just put the line right over Tampa. When they do that early, say a day or two, you know it will miss south by 50 miles and winds will be light with partly cloudy skies. This west track is nerve wracking worse IMHO.

[MetroMike]

Steve,

Its actually 964 mb on landfall per the stamp on Weathermodels

https://i.postimg.cc/j5p8Ds6m/13-km-ICON-MSLP-MSLP-69-1.png

Good thing the ICON model is not one of the main models that are taken more seriously.

[CycloysisNegative]

Steve,

Its actually 964 mb on landfall per the stamp on Weathermodels

https://i.postimg.cc/j5p8Ds6m/13-km-ICON-MSLP-MSLP-69-1.png

Good thing the ICON model is not one of the main models
that are taken more seriously.

It is taken seriously. It’s done very well with Gulf systems this year.

[lsuhurricane]

Also, the lowest run depicted by ICON since the crazy western GOM solutions. Roughly 8 runs ago.

[Noles2016]

Man the ICON isn’t budging.

In the end, it might be right. Hope not. People in Tampa Bay are writing this off based on “models” taking this to panhandle. Even meteorologist here said we are looking in good shape.

ICON is the one model that has budged the most since Saturday... has went from the left outlier to the right outlier.

[Steve]

Man the ICON isn’t budging.

In the end, it might be right. Hope not. People in Tampa Bay are writing this off based on “models” taking this to panhandle. Even meteorologist here said we are looking in good shape.

ICON is the one model that has budged the most since Saturday... has went from the left outlier to the right outlier.

It didn’t drop 930 on us and sniffed out the system early. Recall the evolution of the cut off low. It caught there was going to be one early as well just that it was initially depicted west of what happened 5-6 days later. It has good value even if I think it might be a hair south on this

[Steve]

Also models are dragging ass. I wanted to watch GFS but it is only at 6 hours on pivotal and still 18z on TT

[lsuhurricane]

This GFS run is already well east of the prior runs. Accounting for the low stacking under the MLC.

[Steve]

993 just at the NE tip of Yucatán at 33 hours for GFS. I had to switch to Mexico view to get it.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... -imp&m=gfs

[Steve]

39 hours 992 and Channel

Now 986 and in the gulf at 45 hours.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[BobHarlem]

So far nearly identical track/strength to 18z