ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

Recon missing a dataset, but it appears it's north/right of the forecast track in the short term? Blue line is official forecast track.

https://i.imgur.com/yVyuYXN.png

Of course the one section of data it’s missing is from the exact center lol.

Do you know if the last ASCAT caught PTC9?

ASCAT is doing weird things https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... TBData.php

[xironman]

NOAA has it at 1001mb

[eastcoastFL]

Of course the one section of data it’s missing is from the exact center lol.

Do you know if the last ASCAT caught PTC9?

ASCAT is doing weird things https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... TBData.php

Isn't that cute...such a great tool but so unreliable at times.

[Keldeo1997]

NOAA has it at 1001mb

https://i.imgur.com/uzRQ8Tn.png

999 or 998 with the 20kt wind

[chaser1]

We should have a stacked center around mid-afternoon. Once that occurs NHC will make any track adjustments although I don't imagine they will be significant. For now though, Steinhatchee seems like a safe bet. I just have a hard time seeing the storm making landfall south of that point. The only way I could see that occuring would be if any near-term COC reformation/Reorganization were to continue to occur either north or east of present track guidance. The increased confidence of the storm remaining west of the Western tip of Cuba suggests to me a very slightly increased angel of approach to landfall which I would think would tend to mean that any slight deviation to track, would be "northward" as opposed to "southward".

[caneman]

If you run a loop of the last 4 hours you can really see the western side filling in. I think it's go time!

[caneman]

We should have a stacked center around mid-afternoon. Once that occurs NHC will make any track adjustments although I don't imagine they will be significant. For now though, Steinhatchee seems like a safe bet. I just have a hard time seeing the storm making landfall south of that point. The only way I could see that occuring would be if any near-term COC reformation/Reorganization were to continue to occur either north or east of present track guidance. The increased confidence of the storm remaining west of the Western tip of Cuba suggests to me a very slightly increased angel of approach to landfall which I would think would tend to mean that any slight deviation to track, would be "northward" as opposed to "southward".

Except these systems almost always go slight east of track in this area.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Slightly further north than the NHC position had it at.

[wx98]

Geez only 3-4 days out and the lack of a clearly defined LLC leaves just enough track uncertainty for PTC9 to go anywhere from Naples to Panama City. JMHO

2 days/60 hours out actually lol

[GCANE]

Still in a very sharp shear gradient.
She will probably not strengthen much today.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1838542342971707666

[HurricaneBelle]

We should have a stacked center around mid-afternoon. Once that occurs NHC will make any track adjustments although I don't imagine they will be significant. For now though, Steinhatchee seems like a safe bet. I just have a hard time seeing the storm making landfall south of that point. The only way I could see that occuring would be if any near-term COC reformation/Reorganization were to continue to occur either north or east of present track guidance. The increased confidence of the storm remaining west of the Western tip of Cuba suggests to me a very slightly increased angel of approach to landfall which I would think would tend to mean that any slight deviation to track, would be "northward" as opposed to "southward".

Except these systems almost always go slight east of track in this area.

Do they really? Everyone loves to cite Charley and Ian but those were two storms 18 years apart (and different cases, Ian's forecast was changed to south of Tampa Bay almost two days ahead of time unlike Charley). In the meantime you've had Hermine, Debby, Eta, Elsa, Idalia and others all track into the Big Bend/Cedar Key area pretty much as forecast without any major east shifts.

By no means am I suggesting anyone in the Tampa Bay area take this lightly and we always should prepare for the worst but the NHC knows what it's doing.

[PavelGaborik10]

Happy to see she's still an unstacked elongated mess early this morning.

Take-off is inevitable down the line but lets hope this trend continues as long as realistically possible

[caneman]

We should have a stacked center around mid-afternoon. Once that occurs NHC will make any track adjustments although I don't imagine they will be significant. For now though, Steinhatchee seems like a safe bet. I just have a hard time seeing the storm making landfall south of that point. The only way I could see that occuring would be if any near-term COC reformation/Reorganization were to continue to occur either north or east of present track guidance. The increased confidence of the storm remaining west of the Western tip of Cuba suggests to me a very slightly increased angel of approach to landfall which I would think would tend to mean that any slight deviation to track, would be "northward" as opposed to "southward".

Except these systems almost always go slight east of track in this area.

Do they really? Everyone loves to cite Charley and Ian but those were two storms 18 years apart (and different cases, Ian's forecast was changed to south of Tampa Bay almost two days ahead of time unlike Charley). In the meantime you've had Hermine, Debby, Eta, Elsa, Idalia and others all track into the Big Bend/Cedar Key area pretty much as forecast without any major east shifts.

By no means am I suggesting anyone in the Tampa Bay area take this lightly and we always should prepare for the worst but the NHC knows what it's doing.

I in no way meant to imply it would go to Tampa. I also didn't mean east of forecast track, I meant they almost always bend east which is true and not North and West which was in response to another poster thinking it would go due North. Idalia and many other storms have done same. I've lived here since 1976 so I have 1st hand experience on how these storms act in this area.
I still think Cedar Key.

[3090]

So I see that ULL is still doing its job on 97. Awesome to see. Hoping it continues but once 97 gets into the GOM and away from the ULL that is when it should intensify. Until then it looks to struggle.

[xironman]

Definitely will miss Cuba

[3090]

Happy to see she's still an unstacked elongated mess early this morning.

Take-off is inevitable down the line but lets hope this trend continues as long as realistically possible

Been saying this for the past 36-48 hrs to the dismay of a few on this board. I won a bet offered to me last night. I need to collect (whatever was offered) this morning. LOL.

[3090]

Definitely will miss Cuba

https://i.imgur.com/VHInTuV.gif

Looking at that image you would think it will go further west or stall with that high pressure sitting over the NE corner of Florida.

[Jr0d]

The system looks like Bevis this morning.

Glad I didn't wake up to any surprises and we still have a disorganized system .. unfortunately I doubt I will be able to say this late tonight when I get home.

[DunedinDave]

We should have a stacked center around mid-afternoon. Once that occurs NHC will make any track adjustments although I don't imagine they will be significant. For now though, Steinhatchee seems like a safe bet. I just have a hard time seeing the storm making landfall south of that point. The only way I could see that occuring would be if any near-term COC reformation/Reorganization were to continue to occur either north or east of present track guidance. The increased confidence of the storm remaining west of the Western tip of Cuba suggests to me a very slightly increased angel of approach to landfall which I would think would tend to mean that any slight deviation to track, would be "northward" as opposed to "southward".

Except these systems almost always go slight east of track in this area.

Do they really? Everyone loves to cite Charley and Ian but those were two storms 18 years apart (and different cases, Ian's forecast was changed to south of Tampa Bay almost two days ahead of time unlike Charley). In the meantime you've had Hermine, Debby, Eta, Elsa, Idalia and others all track into the Big Bend/Cedar Key area pretty much as forecast without any major east shifts.

By no means am I suggesting anyone in the Tampa Bay area take this lightly and we always should prepare for the worst but the NHC knows what it's doing.

Irma also took a right turn and off the NHC track, hitting Naples instead of further up the coast like it was supposed to. I’ll
Never forget the meteorologist here saying “It happened again. It took an unexpected right turn.”

I know on Hermine, Debby and Idalia they stayed within the cone but they did nudge a little more right than forecast. Not a lot but a little.

Thus I do buy the argument that storms in the eastern gulf coming from the south do tend to get a little bit more of a shove right than they’re forecast to. Doesn’t happen all the time and no one is saying this will but history has said that it does happen and more than just a couple times.