ATL: HELENE - Advisories
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ATL: HELENE - Advisories
NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, at 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC
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Re: ATL: NINE - Advisories
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF MEXICO AND CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 82.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Tulum, and a
Hurricane Watch from Cabo Catoche to Tulum.
The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Isle of Youth, Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and a Hurricane Watch
for Pinar del Rio.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF MEXICO AND CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 82.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Tulum, and a
Hurricane Watch from Cabo Catoche to Tulum.
The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Isle of Youth, Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and a Hurricane Watch
for Pinar del Rio.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While
some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images,
surface observations and visible satellite images suggest the
low-level circulation remains broad and farther to the southwest.
Nonetheless, the system has a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next day or two, and it is likely to bring
tropical storm conditions to land areas within the next 36 to
48 hours. Therefore, the NHC is initiating Potential Tropical
Cyclone advisories for this disturbance.
The initial motion is quite uncertain given the current lack of
organization, but the best estimate is northward at about 5 kt. A
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next day or
so, with the center passing through the Yucatan Channel and into the
southern Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter, the system is forecast to
accelerate northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico within the
flow between a digging deep-layer trough over the central United
States and a ridge over the western Atlantic. This motion should
bring the center of the system toward the northeastern Gulf Coast on
Thursday. The track guidance agrees reasonably well on this
scenario, and the initial NHC forecast lies near the simple and
corrected consensus aids. Since the disturbance currently lacks a
well-defined center, users are reminded that the average forecast
track uncertainty is larger in these situations, and future track
adjustments may be required. Given the large size of the
tropical-storm-force wind field and fast forward speed that is
forecast, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend
well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system.
While the system is currently broad and not well organized, the
models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the
next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and
develops an inner core, the environmental and oceanic conditions
appear favorable for significant strengthening. In fact, the DTOPS
statistical guidance shows a 95 percent chance of a 65-kt increase
in intensity during the next 72 h, and the hurricane regional models
highlight the potential for strengthening to major hurricane
intensity. Thus, the NHC forecast shows significant strengthening
while the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a
95-kt intensity in 72 h. While this forecast is aggressive, it lies
near or slightly below the consensus aids, and future adjustments
may be necessary. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane
Watches have been issued for portions of western Cuba the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. Interests along the northeastern Gulf Coast,
including the Florida Panhandle and portions of the Florida west
coast should monitor the progress of this system.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The disturbance is forecast to strengthen and be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday
night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
with hurricane conditions possible.
2. The system is expected to intensify while it moves northward
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and it could be a major hurricane
when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. There is an
increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging
hurricane-force winds along portions of the northern and
northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and
portions of the Florida west coast. Although it is too soon to
specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts, residents in
these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure
that they have their hurricane plan in place.
3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions
of the western Caribbean which may lead to flooding and possible
mudslides in western Cuba.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 17.6N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/0000Z 18.6N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 24/1200Z 19.5N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 20.6N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 22.1N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 24.2N 86.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 27.1N 85.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 34.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/1200Z 38.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While
some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images,
surface observations and visible satellite images suggest the
low-level circulation remains broad and farther to the southwest.
Nonetheless, the system has a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next day or two, and it is likely to bring
tropical storm conditions to land areas within the next 36 to
48 hours. Therefore, the NHC is initiating Potential Tropical
Cyclone advisories for this disturbance.
The initial motion is quite uncertain given the current lack of
organization, but the best estimate is northward at about 5 kt. A
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next day or
so, with the center passing through the Yucatan Channel and into the
southern Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter, the system is forecast to
accelerate northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico within the
flow between a digging deep-layer trough over the central United
States and a ridge over the western Atlantic. This motion should
bring the center of the system toward the northeastern Gulf Coast on
Thursday. The track guidance agrees reasonably well on this
scenario, and the initial NHC forecast lies near the simple and
corrected consensus aids. Since the disturbance currently lacks a
well-defined center, users are reminded that the average forecast
track uncertainty is larger in these situations, and future track
adjustments may be required. Given the large size of the
tropical-storm-force wind field and fast forward speed that is
forecast, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend
well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system.
While the system is currently broad and not well organized, the
models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the
next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and
develops an inner core, the environmental and oceanic conditions
appear favorable for significant strengthening. In fact, the DTOPS
statistical guidance shows a 95 percent chance of a 65-kt increase
in intensity during the next 72 h, and the hurricane regional models
highlight the potential for strengthening to major hurricane
intensity. Thus, the NHC forecast shows significant strengthening
while the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a
95-kt intensity in 72 h. While this forecast is aggressive, it lies
near or slightly below the consensus aids, and future adjustments
may be necessary. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane
Watches have been issued for portions of western Cuba the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. Interests along the northeastern Gulf Coast,
including the Florida Panhandle and portions of the Florida west
coast should monitor the progress of this system.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The disturbance is forecast to strengthen and be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday
night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
with hurricane conditions possible.
2. The system is expected to intensify while it moves northward
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and it could be a major hurricane
when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. There is an
increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging
hurricane-force winds along portions of the northern and
northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and
portions of the Florida west coast. Although it is too soon to
specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts, residents in
these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure
that they have their hurricane plan in place.
3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions
of the western Caribbean which may lead to flooding and possible
mudslides in western Cuba.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 17.6N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/0000Z 18.6N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 24/1200Z 19.5N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 20.6N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 22.1N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 24.2N 86.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 27.1N 85.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 34.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/1200Z 38.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
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Re: ATL: NINE - Advisories
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 81.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 81.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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Re: ATL: NINE - Advisories
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND DRY
TORTUGAS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 82.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Dry Tortugas and the
Lower Florida Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of
Youth
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
18.1 North, longitude 82.2 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion is
expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster
northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night, and
then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days,
and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and
continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND DRY
TORTUGAS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 82.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Dry Tortugas and the
Lower Florida Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of
Youth
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
18.1 North, longitude 82.2 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion is
expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster
northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.
On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night, and
then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days,
and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and
continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance are
gradually becoming better organized this afternoon, although the
convection is mostly confined to the eastern portion of the
circulation. Scatterometer winds and aircraft data indicate the
disturbance still lacks a well-defined center, with very light winds
noted on the west side of the broad, elongated circulation. The
scatterometer data did show stronger winds near the convection on
the east side, and based on this along with the aircraft winds, the
initial intensity is raised to 30 kt for this advisory.
The estimated initial motion is north-northwestward (345/6 kt), but
the disturbance should turn more northwestward during the next day
or so. The NHC forecast shows the center of the system passing
between the Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba late
Tuesday night, then moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico on
Wednesday. From there, the flow between a deep-layer trough over the
central United States and a ridge over the western Atlantic should
cause the system to accelerate northward to north-northeastward
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the northeastern Gulf
Coast and Florida Panhandle through Thursday. The track guidance is
very tightly clustered on this solution, and the official NHC
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.
The moderate southwesterly shear over the disturbance is expected to
diminish over the next day or two, which should allow the system to
become better organized and consolidate over deep, warm waters in a
very moist environment. Once the system develops an inner core,
these conditions should allow it to significantly strengthen. The
NHC forecast still calls for the system to become a hurricane on
Wednesday, with continued intensification thereafter while it moves
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Once again, the statistical RI
guidance (SHIPS and DTOPS) show a 65-kt increase in 72 h is very
likely, and the updated NHC forecast now explicitly shows the system
reaching major hurricane intensity on Thursday. This intensity
forecast still lies below the consensus aids, with the regional
hurricane models and the GFS showing even more deepening.
Note that the system is expected to grow in size while it traverses
the Gulf. Thus, the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will
extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the
system. In addition, the fast forward speed as it approaches the
coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of gusty
winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday
night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
with hurricane conditions possible.
2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane
before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. While
it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of
impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and
damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle and the Florida west coast is increasing. Storm Surge
and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that
area tonight or Tuesday morning, and residents should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place.
3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions
of the western Caribbean which may lead to flooding and possible
mudslides in western Cuba.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 18.1N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/0600Z 19.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 24/1800Z 19.9N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 21.1N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 23.0N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 25.4N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 28.9N 84.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 28/1800Z 39.5N 88.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance are
gradually becoming better organized this afternoon, although the
convection is mostly confined to the eastern portion of the
circulation. Scatterometer winds and aircraft data indicate the
disturbance still lacks a well-defined center, with very light winds
noted on the west side of the broad, elongated circulation. The
scatterometer data did show stronger winds near the convection on
the east side, and based on this along with the aircraft winds, the
initial intensity is raised to 30 kt for this advisory.
The estimated initial motion is north-northwestward (345/6 kt), but
the disturbance should turn more northwestward during the next day
or so. The NHC forecast shows the center of the system passing
between the Yucatan Peninsula and the western tip of Cuba late
Tuesday night, then moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico on
Wednesday. From there, the flow between a deep-layer trough over the
central United States and a ridge over the western Atlantic should
cause the system to accelerate northward to north-northeastward
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the northeastern Gulf
Coast and Florida Panhandle through Thursday. The track guidance is
very tightly clustered on this solution, and the official NHC
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.
The moderate southwesterly shear over the disturbance is expected to
diminish over the next day or two, which should allow the system to
become better organized and consolidate over deep, warm waters in a
very moist environment. Once the system develops an inner core,
these conditions should allow it to significantly strengthen. The
NHC forecast still calls for the system to become a hurricane on
Wednesday, with continued intensification thereafter while it moves
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Once again, the statistical RI
guidance (SHIPS and DTOPS) show a 65-kt increase in 72 h is very
likely, and the updated NHC forecast now explicitly shows the system
reaching major hurricane intensity on Thursday. This intensity
forecast still lies below the consensus aids, with the regional
hurricane models and the GFS showing even more deepening.
Note that the system is expected to grow in size while it traverses
the Gulf. Thus, the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will
extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the
system. In addition, the fast forward speed as it approaches the
coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of gusty
winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday
night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
with hurricane conditions possible.
2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane
before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. While
it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of
impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and
damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle and the Florida west coast is increasing. Storm Surge
and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that
area tonight or Tuesday morning, and residents should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place.
3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions
of the western Caribbean which may lead to flooding and possible
mudslides in western Cuba.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/2100Z 18.1N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/0600Z 19.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 24/1800Z 19.9N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 21.1N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 23.0N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 25.4N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 28.9N 84.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 28/1800Z 39.5N 88.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
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Re: ATL: NINE - Advisories
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 82.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Grand Cayman.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 82.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Grand Cayman.
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- Admin
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Re: ATL: NINE - Advisories
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 82.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued along the southwest coast of
Florida from Bonita Beach to Flamingo.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the southwest coast of
Florida from Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
Satellite imagery indicates that there has been little change in
the organization of the system since earlier today. Most of the
deep convection is over the eastern part of the broad circulation.
Animation of proxy-vis GOES images, and radar observations from
Grand Cayman Weather Service suggest that the disturbance still
does not have a well-defined center of circulation, so the system is
kept as a potential tropical cyclone for the time being. The
advisory intensity is held at 30 kt which is in agreement with a
Dvorak estimate from TAFB. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the area in a few hours to provide a
better description of the system's structure along with an updated
intensity estimate.
The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 330/5 kt. During
the next day or so, the disturbance is expected to turn
northwestward along the southern and southwestern side of a
mid-level high pressure area. Then, the high is expected to shift
eastward while a mid-level trough drops into the central United
States. This evolution of the steering pattern should cause the
system to accelerate northward to north-northeastward over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the northeastern Gulf Coast
through Thursday. There is good agreement in the track guidance, and
the official forecast is close to the corrected dynamical consensus
model, HCCA, prediction. This is also very similar to the previous
NHC forecast.
An upper-level low over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula has been
imparting some southwesterly vertical wind shear over the
disturbance. This has probably caused a temporary disruption in
development. Dynamical guidance shows this low weakening with time,
resulting in a reduction of shear in an environment that is
otherwise very conducive for intensification. The system is
projected to move over waters of very high ocean heat content,
which should lead to considerable strengthening during the forecast
period. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one and lies between the statistical-dynamical model guidance and
the purely dynamical model predictions. It should be noted that
the 72-hour forecast allows for a little weakening after moving
inland, so the cyclone is still expected to be at major hurricane
strength at landfall.
It should also be noted that the cyclone is expected to grow in
size while it traverses the Gulf. Thus, the storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, particularly
to the east of the system. In addition, the fast forward speed
while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland
penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United
States after landfall.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday
night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
with hurricane conditions possible.
2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane
before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. While
it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of
impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and
damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle and the Florida west coast is increasing. Hurricane
Watches and additional Storm Surge watches will likely be issued
for a portion of that area Tuesday morning, and residents should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions
of the western Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding
and mudslides across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall will likely
result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across
portions of Florida, with isolated flash and urban flooding
possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the
Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated
moderate river flooding will be possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 18.4N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/1200Z 19.1N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 25/0000Z 20.2N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 21.6N 85.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 23.4N 85.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 26.2N 84.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 30.4N 83.9W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 82.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued along the southwest coast of
Florida from Bonita Beach to Flamingo.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the southwest coast of
Florida from Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
Satellite imagery indicates that there has been little change in
the organization of the system since earlier today. Most of the
deep convection is over the eastern part of the broad circulation.
Animation of proxy-vis GOES images, and radar observations from
Grand Cayman Weather Service suggest that the disturbance still
does not have a well-defined center of circulation, so the system is
kept as a potential tropical cyclone for the time being. The
advisory intensity is held at 30 kt which is in agreement with a
Dvorak estimate from TAFB. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the area in a few hours to provide a
better description of the system's structure along with an updated
intensity estimate.
The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 330/5 kt. During
the next day or so, the disturbance is expected to turn
northwestward along the southern and southwestern side of a
mid-level high pressure area. Then, the high is expected to shift
eastward while a mid-level trough drops into the central United
States. This evolution of the steering pattern should cause the
system to accelerate northward to north-northeastward over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the northeastern Gulf Coast
through Thursday. There is good agreement in the track guidance, and
the official forecast is close to the corrected dynamical consensus
model, HCCA, prediction. This is also very similar to the previous
NHC forecast.
An upper-level low over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula has been
imparting some southwesterly vertical wind shear over the
disturbance. This has probably caused a temporary disruption in
development. Dynamical guidance shows this low weakening with time,
resulting in a reduction of shear in an environment that is
otherwise very conducive for intensification. The system is
projected to move over waters of very high ocean heat content,
which should lead to considerable strengthening during the forecast
period. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one and lies between the statistical-dynamical model guidance and
the purely dynamical model predictions. It should be noted that
the 72-hour forecast allows for a little weakening after moving
inland, so the cyclone is still expected to be at major hurricane
strength at landfall.
It should also be noted that the cyclone is expected to grow in
size while it traverses the Gulf. Thus, the storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, particularly
to the east of the system. In addition, the fast forward speed
while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland
penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United
States after landfall.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday
night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
with hurricane conditions possible.
2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane
before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. While
it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of
impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and
damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle and the Florida west coast is increasing. Hurricane
Watches and additional Storm Surge watches will likely be issued
for a portion of that area Tuesday morning, and residents should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions
of the western Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding
and mudslides across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall will likely
result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across
portions of Florida, with isolated flash and urban flooding
possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the
Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated
moderate river flooding will be possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 18.4N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/1200Z 19.1N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 25/0000Z 20.2N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 21.6N 85.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 23.4N 85.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 26.2N 84.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 30.4N 83.9W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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- Admin
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Re: ATL: NINE - Advisories
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 83.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Indian Pass Florida
southward to Bonita Beach Florida, including Tampa Bay and
Charlotte Harbor.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida
from Englewood northward and westward to Indian Pass, including
Tampa Bay.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of
Florida from Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County Line and from
north of Bonita Beach to south of Englewood.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Indian Pass
* Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of
Youth
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Flamingo to south of Englewood
* West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line
Interests elsewhere along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the
Florida Panhandle and the Florida west Gulf coast, should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will
likely be required today.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
18.9 North, longitude 83.0 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected
later today and tonight, followed by a faster northward to
north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and
then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue
strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches)
based on Air Force dropsonde data.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 83.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Indian Pass Florida
southward to Bonita Beach Florida, including Tampa Bay and
Charlotte Harbor.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida
from Englewood northward and westward to Indian Pass, including
Tampa Bay.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of
Florida from Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County Line and from
north of Bonita Beach to south of Englewood.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Indian Pass
* Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Cayman
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of
Youth
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Flamingo to south of Englewood
* West of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County line
Interests elsewhere along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the
Florida Panhandle and the Florida west Gulf coast, should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will
likely be required today.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
18.9 North, longitude 83.0 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected
later today and tonight, followed by a faster northward to
north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and
then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue
strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches)
based on Air Force dropsonde data.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
Satellite images indicate that the system remains poorly organized.
A large area of deep convection is on the eastern side of the broad
circulation with no defined central features, and dropsondes
from the Air Force and NOAA aircraft indicate that low-level
circulation remains poorly defined. The initial wind speed is kept
at 30 kt, in agreement with many dropsondes around that value.
The best estimate of initial motion is northwestward at about 7 kt.
This general motion is expected today while the disturbance moves
around a high-pressure area over the southeastern United States.
The cyclone is expected to gradually turn northward on Wednesday as
the high shifts eastward ahead of a mid-level trough dropping into
the south-central United States. This evolution of the steering
pattern should cause the system to accelerate northward to
north-northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the
northeastern Gulf Coast through Thursday. The biggest change to the
model guidance overnight is that the guidance mean is a bit slower,
with the GFS model faster than most of the aids. However, this
remains a very consistent set of models, and very little overall
change was made to the official forecast. Hopefully an ongoing NOAA
G-IV aircraft mission will help provide useful data for any future
track refinements.
Southwesterly shear continues over the disturbance, though the
models are insistent that this shear will abate as an upper-level
low over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula weakens today and
tomorrow. Otherwise, conditions look quite favorable for
strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and
Thursday, with the system likely moving over extremely deep and
warm waters, along with a favorable trough interaction, and many of
the forecast aids are showing rapid intensification over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. The intensity guidance is very close to
the previous NHC intensity forecast and continues to indicate that
this system will become quite large and powerful before landfall.
Due to the forecast large size of this system, storm surge, wind,
and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center,
particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast
forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in
farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States after landfall. Hurricane and Storm
Surge Watches have been issued this morning, and further watches
and warnings are likely later today.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
with hurricane conditions possible.
2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane before
it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday, and the
potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging
hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and
the Florida west gulf coast is increasing. Hurricane and Storm
Surge Watches have been issued, and residents should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place, and also follow advice given by
local officials.
3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions
of the western Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding
and mudslides across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall will likely
result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across
portions of Florida, with isolated flash and urban flooding
possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the
Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated
moderate river flooding will be possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 18.9N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/1800Z 19.6N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 25/0600Z 20.7N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 22.0N 86.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 24.3N 85.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 27.8N 84.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 31.9N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/0600Z 38.5N 85.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
Satellite images indicate that the system remains poorly organized.
A large area of deep convection is on the eastern side of the broad
circulation with no defined central features, and dropsondes
from the Air Force and NOAA aircraft indicate that low-level
circulation remains poorly defined. The initial wind speed is kept
at 30 kt, in agreement with many dropsondes around that value.
The best estimate of initial motion is northwestward at about 7 kt.
This general motion is expected today while the disturbance moves
around a high-pressure area over the southeastern United States.
The cyclone is expected to gradually turn northward on Wednesday as
the high shifts eastward ahead of a mid-level trough dropping into
the south-central United States. This evolution of the steering
pattern should cause the system to accelerate northward to
north-northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the
northeastern Gulf Coast through Thursday. The biggest change to the
model guidance overnight is that the guidance mean is a bit slower,
with the GFS model faster than most of the aids. However, this
remains a very consistent set of models, and very little overall
change was made to the official forecast. Hopefully an ongoing NOAA
G-IV aircraft mission will help provide useful data for any future
track refinements.
Southwesterly shear continues over the disturbance, though the
models are insistent that this shear will abate as an upper-level
low over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula weakens today and
tomorrow. Otherwise, conditions look quite favorable for
strengthening over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and
Thursday, with the system likely moving over extremely deep and
warm waters, along with a favorable trough interaction, and many of
the forecast aids are showing rapid intensification over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. The intensity guidance is very close to
the previous NHC intensity forecast and continues to indicate that
this system will become quite large and powerful before landfall.
Due to the forecast large size of this system, storm surge, wind,
and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center,
particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast
forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in
farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States after landfall. Hurricane and Storm
Surge Watches have been issued this morning, and further watches
and warnings are likely later today.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane
strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea early
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
with hurricane conditions possible.
2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane before
it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday, and the
potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging
hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and
the Florida west gulf coast is increasing. Hurricane and Storm
Surge Watches have been issued, and residents should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place, and also follow advice given by
local officials.
3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions
of the western Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding
and mudslides across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall will likely
result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across
portions of Florida, with isolated flash and urban flooding
possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the
Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated
moderate river flooding will be possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0900Z 18.9N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 24/1800Z 19.6N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 25/0600Z 20.7N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 22.0N 86.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 24.3N 85.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 27.8N 84.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 31.9N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/0600Z 38.5N 85.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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- Admin
- Posts: 145250
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: NINE - Advisories
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 83.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 83.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
0 likes
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145250
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: HELENE - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 84.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Lower Florida Keys
west of the Seven Mile Bridge and for the Dry Tortugas.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Middle Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge.
Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter measured peak 925-mb
flight-level winds of 52 kt to the northeast of the center, which
supports an initial intensity of 40 kt. Dropsonde data also
indicated that the central pressure is down to 1000 mb. Very
recently, data from the plane and one-minute visible satellite
imagery indicate that the center has become better defined. Based
on these data, the system is being designated as Tropical Storm
Helene at this time.
Helene is moving a little faster toward the northwest (310/10 kt)
as it moves around a mid-level area of high pressure located over
Florida and the Southeastern U.S. The high is expected to slide
eastward through Wednesday as a deep-layer trough digs southward
over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This pattern evolution should
cause the system to turn northward and north-northeastward late
Wednesday into Thursday. The track guidance is very tightly
clustered, which would normally imply high forecast confidence.
However, depending on exactly where the center forms could end up
shifting the entire guidance suite in future cycles, so it is
imperative to not focus on specific landfall locations this far in
the future.
Satellite trends suggest that the shear over the system is
beginning to decrease, and model guidance continues to show
relatively low to moderate shear for the next 48 hours or so. In
addition, oceanic heat content values are very high, and the system
will be moving through an environment of upper-level divergence.
Therefore, significant strengthening is anticipated, and the NHC
intensity forecast shows the system reaching a peak intensity
around 100 kt in 48 hours while over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
There could be some increase in shear around the time the system
reaches the coast, given the system's large size, it might only
weaken slowly. As a result, there is still a risk that the system
could reach the coast as a major hurricane.
Helene's forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of hurricane
size at similar latitudes. Due to the forecast large size of this
system, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well
away from the center, particularly on the east side. In addition,
the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result
in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States after landfall.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength
when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea early Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western
Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with
hurricane conditions possible.
2. Helene is expected to rapidly intensify over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane when it approaches the
northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. The risk of impacts from
life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds
continues to increase along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and
the Florida west coast. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are in
effect for much of that area and residents in those areas should
follow advice given by local officials.
3. Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western
Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding and mudslides
across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall will likely result in locally
considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida,
with isolated flash and urban flooding possible across the
Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley
Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding
will be possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 19.5N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 20.3N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.5N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 23.2N 86.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 25.9N 85.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 33.9N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 39.7N 86.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 84.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Lower Florida Keys
west of the Seven Mile Bridge and for the Dry Tortugas.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Middle Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge.
Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter measured peak 925-mb
flight-level winds of 52 kt to the northeast of the center, which
supports an initial intensity of 40 kt. Dropsonde data also
indicated that the central pressure is down to 1000 mb. Very
recently, data from the plane and one-minute visible satellite
imagery indicate that the center has become better defined. Based
on these data, the system is being designated as Tropical Storm
Helene at this time.
Helene is moving a little faster toward the northwest (310/10 kt)
as it moves around a mid-level area of high pressure located over
Florida and the Southeastern U.S. The high is expected to slide
eastward through Wednesday as a deep-layer trough digs southward
over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This pattern evolution should
cause the system to turn northward and north-northeastward late
Wednesday into Thursday. The track guidance is very tightly
clustered, which would normally imply high forecast confidence.
However, depending on exactly where the center forms could end up
shifting the entire guidance suite in future cycles, so it is
imperative to not focus on specific landfall locations this far in
the future.
Satellite trends suggest that the shear over the system is
beginning to decrease, and model guidance continues to show
relatively low to moderate shear for the next 48 hours or so. In
addition, oceanic heat content values are very high, and the system
will be moving through an environment of upper-level divergence.
Therefore, significant strengthening is anticipated, and the NHC
intensity forecast shows the system reaching a peak intensity
around 100 kt in 48 hours while over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
There could be some increase in shear around the time the system
reaches the coast, given the system's large size, it might only
weaken slowly. As a result, there is still a risk that the system
could reach the coast as a major hurricane.
Helene's forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of hurricane
size at similar latitudes. Due to the forecast large size of this
system, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well
away from the center, particularly on the east side. In addition,
the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result
in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States after landfall.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength
when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea early Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western
Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with
hurricane conditions possible.
2. Helene is expected to rapidly intensify over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane when it approaches the
northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. The risk of impacts from
life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds
continues to increase along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and
the Florida west coast. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are in
effect for much of that area and residents in those areas should
follow advice given by local officials.
3. Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western
Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding and mudslides
across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall will likely result in locally
considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida,
with isolated flash and urban flooding possible across the
Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley
Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding
will be possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 19.5N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 20.3N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.5N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 23.2N 86.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 25.9N 85.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 33.9N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 39.7N 86.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...HELENE ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 84.5W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...HELENE ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 84.5W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...HELENE'S LARGE SIZE WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN EXTENSIVE AREA TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE STORM'S HAZARDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 84.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Flamingo to Indian Pass,
Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Anclote River to Mexico
Beach, Florida.
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Cabo
Catoche to Tulum.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Middle Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from
Flamingo northward to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and west
of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coasts of
Florida and Georgia from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward
to the Savannah River, and for Lake Okeechobee.
Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
Deep convection is gradually filling in within Helene's
circulation, and the well-defined center that formed earlier this
morning is now obscured by cloudiness and showers. Data from NOAA
buoy indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 995 mb, and
the initial intensity is therefore estimated to be 45 kt. NOAA and
the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Helene
this evening to provide more information about the storm's intensity
and structure.
With the center formation this morning, Helene has taken a
short-term jog to the west-northwest (300/10 kt). The storm is
expected to turn northwestward by tonight and then northward on
Wednesday as high pressure over Florida shifts eastward, and a
deep-layer trough digs southward over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
The NHC track forecast has been shifted westward during the first
24 hours to account for the recent motion, and Helene's center
could get very close to the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula Wednesday morning. After that time, however, the NHC
track forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous
prediction, except for being a little bit slower based on the
latest guidance. Helene is expected to accelerate while it moves
northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the
Florida Gulf coast.
Warm sea surface temperatures, decreasing shear, and strong
upper-level divergence are likely to foster Helene's strengthening
while it moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern
Gulf of Mexico. The statistical-dynamical SHIPS/LGEM models, as
well as the regional hurricane models, continue to show Helene
reaching major hurricane intensity while over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, and that continues to be shown in the NHC forecast. Helene
could maintain that level of intensity until it reaches the Gulf
coast of Florida.
Of equal importance to the forecast intensity is Helene's forecast
size. Helene's forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of
major hurricane size at similar latitudes, and therefore storm
surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well
away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on
the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses
the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong
winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength
when it passes near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula on Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
2. Helene is expected to rapidly intensify and grow in size over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is a danger of life-threatening
storm surge along the entire west coast of the Florida Peninsula and
Florida Big Bend. The highest inundation levels are expected along
the coast of the Florida Big Bend. Residents in those areas should
follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do
so.
3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
coast of the Florida Big Bend, where a Hurricane Warning is now in
effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be
complete by early Thursday since tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within this area on Thursday.
4. Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean
with potentially significant flooding and mudslides across western
Cuba. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across
portions of Florida, the Southeast, southern Appalachians, and the
Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. This includes the risk of
landslides across the southern Appalachians. Widespread minor to
moderate river flooding is likely, and isolated major river flooding
is possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 19.7N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 20.4N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 21.7N 86.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 23.7N 86.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 27.0N 84.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 31.5N 84.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1800Z 38.2N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...HELENE'S LARGE SIZE WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN EXTENSIVE AREA TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE STORM'S HAZARDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 84.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Flamingo to Indian Pass,
Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Anclote River to Mexico
Beach, Florida.
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Cabo
Catoche to Tulum.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Middle Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from
Flamingo northward to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and west
of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coasts of
Florida and Georgia from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward
to the Savannah River, and for Lake Okeechobee.
Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
Deep convection is gradually filling in within Helene's
circulation, and the well-defined center that formed earlier this
morning is now obscured by cloudiness and showers. Data from NOAA
buoy indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 995 mb, and
the initial intensity is therefore estimated to be 45 kt. NOAA and
the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Helene
this evening to provide more information about the storm's intensity
and structure.
With the center formation this morning, Helene has taken a
short-term jog to the west-northwest (300/10 kt). The storm is
expected to turn northwestward by tonight and then northward on
Wednesday as high pressure over Florida shifts eastward, and a
deep-layer trough digs southward over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
The NHC track forecast has been shifted westward during the first
24 hours to account for the recent motion, and Helene's center
could get very close to the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula Wednesday morning. After that time, however, the NHC
track forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous
prediction, except for being a little bit slower based on the
latest guidance. Helene is expected to accelerate while it moves
northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the
Florida Gulf coast.
Warm sea surface temperatures, decreasing shear, and strong
upper-level divergence are likely to foster Helene's strengthening
while it moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern
Gulf of Mexico. The statistical-dynamical SHIPS/LGEM models, as
well as the regional hurricane models, continue to show Helene
reaching major hurricane intensity while over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, and that continues to be shown in the NHC forecast. Helene
could maintain that level of intensity until it reaches the Gulf
coast of Florida.
Of equal importance to the forecast intensity is Helene's forecast
size. Helene's forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of
major hurricane size at similar latitudes, and therefore storm
surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well
away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on
the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses
the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong
winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength
when it passes near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula on Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
2. Helene is expected to rapidly intensify and grow in size over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is a danger of life-threatening
storm surge along the entire west coast of the Florida Peninsula and
Florida Big Bend. The highest inundation levels are expected along
the coast of the Florida Big Bend. Residents in those areas should
follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do
so.
3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
coast of the Florida Big Bend, where a Hurricane Warning is now in
effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be
complete by early Thursday since tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within this area on Thursday.
4. Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean
with potentially significant flooding and mudslides across western
Cuba. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across
portions of Florida, the Southeast, southern Appalachians, and the
Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. This includes the risk of
landslides across the southern Appalachians. Widespread minor to
moderate river flooding is likely, and isolated major river flooding
is possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 19.7N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 20.4N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 21.7N 86.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 23.7N 86.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 27.0N 84.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 31.5N 84.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/1800Z 35.5N 84.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1800Z 38.2N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...HELENE STRENGTHENING...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 85.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...HELENE STRENGTHENING...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 85.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...HELENE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the Palm Beach/Martin
County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line
* Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia
County Line
* Lake Okeechobee
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024
Helene continues to become better organized with increased
convective banding features and an overall more symmetrical-looking
cloud pattern. The convection is very deep with cloud tops to -80
deg C or colder. Doppler velocity data from a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate no significant vertical tilt of the
vortex in the low- to mid-troposphere. This suggests that the
vertical wind shear is low. Earlier flight-level wind data from the
aircraft indicate the the maximum winds are near 50 kt, although
this may be conservative.
Although the storm has been wobbling over the past few hours,
center fixes from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a
generally west-northwestward motion at around 300/9 kt. Helene
should turn northwestward soon as a high pressure area over Florida
shifts eastward, with the tropical cyclone center passing near the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, a
mid-tropospheric trough is digging over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. This evolution of the steering flow should cause Helene to
turn northward with an increase in forward speed during the next day
or so. An accelerating northward to north-northeastward motion over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico should take the system to the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast in about 48 hours. After
landfall, Helene should curve cyclonically around a mid-level low
over the south-central United States. The official forecast is very
similar to the previous one and is on top of the latest corrected
consensus track guidance.
Over the next couple of days, Helene will be moving through an
environment of low vertical wind shear, ample environmental
moisture, and over waters of high oceanic heat content. Thus,
significant strengthening is anticipated before landfall on the
northeast Gulf coast. The NHC intensity forecast explicitly shows
steady to rapid intensification (RI) of 25 kt for the next 24 hours
and 30 kt for the 24- to 48-hour forecast interval. This is in
general agreement with the SHIPS RI indices.
Helene is predicted to grow to a very large size in the NHC
forecast. Therefore storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will
likely extend well away from the center and outside the forecast
cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward
speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther
inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern
United States after landfall.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength
when it passes near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula on Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
2. Helene is expected to rapidly intensify and grow in size over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is a danger of life-threatening storm
surge along the entire west coast of the Florida Peninsula and
Florida Big Bend. The highest inundation levels are
expected along the coast of the Florida Big Bend. Residents in
those areas should follow advice given by local officials and
evacuate if told to do so.
3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
coast of the Florida Big Bend, where a Hurricane Warning is now in
effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be
complete by early Thursday since tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within this area on Thursday.
4. Tropical Storm Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the
western Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Considerable
flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of Florida, the
Southeast, southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley Wednesday
through Friday. This includes the risk of landslides across the
southern Appalachians. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding
is likely, and isolated major river flooding is possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 19.9N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 21.1N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 22.7N 86.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 25.4N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 29.5N 84.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 34.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 36.5N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 29/0000Z 37.0N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...HELENE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the Palm Beach/Martin
County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of the Channel 5 Bridge
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line
* Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Flagler/Volusia
County Line
* Lake Okeechobee
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024
Helene continues to become better organized with increased
convective banding features and an overall more symmetrical-looking
cloud pattern. The convection is very deep with cloud tops to -80
deg C or colder. Doppler velocity data from a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate no significant vertical tilt of the
vortex in the low- to mid-troposphere. This suggests that the
vertical wind shear is low. Earlier flight-level wind data from the
aircraft indicate the the maximum winds are near 50 kt, although
this may be conservative.
Although the storm has been wobbling over the past few hours,
center fixes from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a
generally west-northwestward motion at around 300/9 kt. Helene
should turn northwestward soon as a high pressure area over Florida
shifts eastward, with the tropical cyclone center passing near the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, a
mid-tropospheric trough is digging over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. This evolution of the steering flow should cause Helene to
turn northward with an increase in forward speed during the next day
or so. An accelerating northward to north-northeastward motion over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico should take the system to the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast in about 48 hours. After
landfall, Helene should curve cyclonically around a mid-level low
over the south-central United States. The official forecast is very
similar to the previous one and is on top of the latest corrected
consensus track guidance.
Over the next couple of days, Helene will be moving through an
environment of low vertical wind shear, ample environmental
moisture, and over waters of high oceanic heat content. Thus,
significant strengthening is anticipated before landfall on the
northeast Gulf coast. The NHC intensity forecast explicitly shows
steady to rapid intensification (RI) of 25 kt for the next 24 hours
and 30 kt for the 24- to 48-hour forecast interval. This is in
general agreement with the SHIPS RI indices.
Helene is predicted to grow to a very large size in the NHC
forecast. Therefore storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will
likely extend well away from the center and outside the forecast
cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward
speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther
inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern
United States after landfall.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength
when it passes near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula on Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
2. Helene is expected to rapidly intensify and grow in size over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is a danger of life-threatening storm
surge along the entire west coast of the Florida Peninsula and
Florida Big Bend. The highest inundation levels are
expected along the coast of the Florida Big Bend. Residents in
those areas should follow advice given by local officials and
evacuate if told to do so.
3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
coast of the Florida Big Bend, where a Hurricane Warning is now in
effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be
complete by early Thursday since tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within this area on Thursday.
4. Tropical Storm Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the
western Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Considerable
flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of Florida, the
Southeast, southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley Wednesday
through Friday. This includes the risk of landslides across the
southern Appalachians. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding
is likely, and isolated major river flooding is possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 19.9N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 21.1N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 22.7N 86.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 25.4N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 29.5N 84.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 34.0N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 36.5N 86.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 29/0000Z 37.0N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
...HELENE STRENGTHENING AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 86.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Upper Florida
Keys from the Channel 5 Bridge to Ocean Reef and for the southern
Florida Peninsula east of Flamingo to the Palm Beach/Martin County
line.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the northeast coast
of Florida north of the Flagler/Volusia line to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River.
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the South Carolina
coast north of the Savannah River to the South Santee River.
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
Helen has strengthened some since the last advisory. Reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the central pressure has fallen to 985 mb, and that the maximum
850 mb flight-level were 58 kt in the northeastern quadrant. A
dropsonde in the northwest quadrant reported a splash wind of 59
kt, but the boundary-layer average suggested sustained winds closer
to 45 kt. Based on these data and increasing satellite intensity
estimates, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt. Despite
the increased intensity, the aircraft data, along with radar data
from Mexico and Cuba, show that Helen has not yet formed a
well-defined inner core.
The initial motion is 325/8 kt. Helen should turn northward during
the next 12 h or so on the western side of a mid-level ridge, and
then it should accelerate northward to north-northeastward as it
become embedded in the deep-layer flow between the ridge and a
mid-latitude trough/developing cut-off low over the Mississippi
valley. This motion should bring the center near the northeastern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning, then across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Thursday to a landfall along the
northeast coast of the Gulf of Mexico late Thursday or Thursday
night. After landfall, Helene should curve cyclonically around the
cut-off low until it dissipates. The new forecast track is little
changed from the previous track.
Over the next couple of days, Helene will be moving through an
environment of low vertical wind shear, ample environmental
moisture, and over waters of high oceanic heat content. All
guidance forecasts steady to rapid intensification, including the
RI indices associated with the SHIPS model. The latest forecast
calls for a 105 kt intensity by 36 h, and this could be
conservative as some of the guidance is stronger. After landfall,
Helen is forecast to weaken and become post-tropical as it gets
tangled up in the baroclinic system over the southeastern United
States.
Helene's wind field is predicted to grow to a very large size in the
NHC forecast. Therefore storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts
will likely extend well away from the center and outside the
forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast
forward speed while Helene crosses the coast will likely result in
farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States after landfall.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength
when it passes near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula during the next several hours, where a Hurricane Warning
is in effect.
2. Helene is expected to rapidly intensify and grow in size over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is a danger of life-threatening storm
surge along the entire west coast of the Florida Peninsula and
Florida Big Bend. The highest inundation levels are expected along
the coast of the Florida Big Bend. Residents in those areas should
follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do
so.
3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
coast of the Florida Big Bend, where a Hurricane Warning is now in
effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed by early Thursday since tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within this area on Thursday.
4. Tropical Storm Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the
western Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Considerable
and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is
expected across portions of Florida, the Southeast, the Southern
Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley beginning today through
Friday. This includes the risk of landslides across the southern
Appalachians. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely,
and isolated major river flooding is possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 20.7N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 21.9N 86.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 24.1N 86.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 27.4N 85.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 32.0N 84.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 27/1800Z 35.9N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 28/0600Z 37.0N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 29/0600Z 36.5N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
...HELENE STRENGTHENING AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 86.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Upper Florida
Keys from the Channel 5 Bridge to Ocean Reef and for the southern
Florida Peninsula east of Flamingo to the Palm Beach/Martin County
line.
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the northeast coast
of Florida north of the Flagler/Volusia line to the mouth of the
St. Mary's River.
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the South Carolina
coast north of the Savannah River to the South Santee River.
TCDAT4
Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
Helen has strengthened some since the last advisory. Reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the central pressure has fallen to 985 mb, and that the maximum
850 mb flight-level were 58 kt in the northeastern quadrant. A
dropsonde in the northwest quadrant reported a splash wind of 59
kt, but the boundary-layer average suggested sustained winds closer
to 45 kt. Based on these data and increasing satellite intensity
estimates, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt. Despite
the increased intensity, the aircraft data, along with radar data
from Mexico and Cuba, show that Helen has not yet formed a
well-defined inner core.
The initial motion is 325/8 kt. Helen should turn northward during
the next 12 h or so on the western side of a mid-level ridge, and
then it should accelerate northward to north-northeastward as it
become embedded in the deep-layer flow between the ridge and a
mid-latitude trough/developing cut-off low over the Mississippi
valley. This motion should bring the center near the northeastern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning, then across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Thursday to a landfall along the
northeast coast of the Gulf of Mexico late Thursday or Thursday
night. After landfall, Helene should curve cyclonically around the
cut-off low until it dissipates. The new forecast track is little
changed from the previous track.
Over the next couple of days, Helene will be moving through an
environment of low vertical wind shear, ample environmental
moisture, and over waters of high oceanic heat content. All
guidance forecasts steady to rapid intensification, including the
RI indices associated with the SHIPS model. The latest forecast
calls for a 105 kt intensity by 36 h, and this could be
conservative as some of the guidance is stronger. After landfall,
Helen is forecast to weaken and become post-tropical as it gets
tangled up in the baroclinic system over the southeastern United
States.
Helene's wind field is predicted to grow to a very large size in the
NHC forecast. Therefore storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts
will likely extend well away from the center and outside the
forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast
forward speed while Helene crosses the coast will likely result in
farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States after landfall.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Helene is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength
when it passes near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula during the next several hours, where a Hurricane Warning
is in effect.
2. Helene is expected to rapidly intensify and grow in size over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is a danger of life-threatening storm
surge along the entire west coast of the Florida Peninsula and
Florida Big Bend. The highest inundation levels are expected along
the coast of the Florida Big Bend. Residents in those areas should
follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do
so.
3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
coast of the Florida Big Bend, where a Hurricane Warning is now in
effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed by early Thursday since tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within this area on Thursday.
4. Tropical Storm Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the
western Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Considerable
and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is
expected across portions of Florida, the Southeast, the Southern
Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley beginning today through
Friday. This includes the risk of landslides across the southern
Appalachians. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely,
and isolated major river flooding is possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 20.7N 86.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 21.9N 86.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 24.1N 86.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 27.4N 85.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 32.0N 84.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 27/1800Z 35.9N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 28/0600Z 37.0N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 29/0600Z 36.5N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Advisories
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
700 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
...HELENE JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 86.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Altamaha
Sound, Georgia.
Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
700 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
...HELENE JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 86.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Altamaha
Sound, Georgia.
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Advisories
BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
...HELENE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND FLOODING RAINS TO A LARGE PORTION OF FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 86.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
investigating Helene, with each plane recently measuring peak
flight-level winds of 81 kt and 78 kt, respectively. Helene has
therefore become a hurricane with an estimated intensity of 70 kt.
Dropsonde data also indicate that the pressure has fallen to about
979 mb. Radar data from Mexico and Cuba, as well as reconnaissance
reports, indicate that Helene has formed a partial, elliptical
eyewall that is open on the east side.
Helene has turned north-northwestward (330/9 kt) and is expected to
turn northward and north-northeastward later today and tonight,
bringing the center to the coast of the Florida Big Bend Thursday
evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to interact with a
deep-layer trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley and swing back
to the northwest and stall near the Tennessee Valley late Friday
into the weekend. The track guidance remains tightly clustered,
and the NHC forecast is generally just an update of the previous
prediction. It is still too soon at this point to be overly focused
on an exact landfall location and time, since NHC track forecasts
can be off by an average of 60 nm at the 36-hour forecast time.
Helene is expected to move through/over an environment of
relatively low shear, strong upper-level divergence, and sea
surface temperatures of 29-31 degrees Celsius, all of which should
foster additional strengthening. Rapid Intensification (RI)
indices indicate a high chance of RI during the next 24 hours, and
as a result the NHC intensity forecast shows Helene becoming a
major hurricane by Thursday morning. There is still some
uncertainty on exactly how strong Helene will get, and upward
adjustments to the forecast intensity could be required in
subsequent advisories if Helene rapidly intensifies more than
forecast. Regardless, Helene is forecast to be a large major
hurricane when it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. As a
result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend
well away from the center and outside the forecast cone,
particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed
while Helene crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland
penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United
States after landfall, including strong gusts over higher terrain
of the southern Appalachians.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected over
northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today where
Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are occurring over portions of western Cuba within the
Tropical Storm Warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible
today within the Hurricane Watch area.
2. Due to the large size of Helene, there is a danger of
life-threatening storm surge along the entire west coast of the
Florida Peninsula and Florida Big Bend. The highest inundation of
greater than 10 ft is expected along the Florida Big Bend coast.
Residents in those areas should follow advice given by local
officials and evacuate if told to do so.
3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected across portions
of northern Florida and southern Georgia where the core of Helene
moves inland. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed by early Thursday since tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within these areas on Thursday. Because of
Helene’s expected fast forward speed, damaging and life-threatening
wind gusts, are expected to penetrate well inland over portions of
the southeastern United States, including in the higher terrain of
the southern Appalachians.
4. Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western
Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across western Cuba
and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula into early Thursday.
Considerable and potentially life-threatening flash and urban
flooding is expected across portions of northwestern and northern
Florida, the Southeast, southern Appalachians, and the Upper
Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. This includes the risk of
landslides across the southern Appalachians. Widespread minor to
moderate river flooding is likely, and isolated major river flooding
is possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 21.6N 86.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 23.0N 86.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 25.7N 85.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 34.3N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 28/0000Z 36.6N 86.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 28/1200Z 36.9N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 29/1200Z 36.6N 87.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
...HELENE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND FLOODING RAINS TO A LARGE PORTION OF FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 86.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
investigating Helene, with each plane recently measuring peak
flight-level winds of 81 kt and 78 kt, respectively. Helene has
therefore become a hurricane with an estimated intensity of 70 kt.
Dropsonde data also indicate that the pressure has fallen to about
979 mb. Radar data from Mexico and Cuba, as well as reconnaissance
reports, indicate that Helene has formed a partial, elliptical
eyewall that is open on the east side.
Helene has turned north-northwestward (330/9 kt) and is expected to
turn northward and north-northeastward later today and tonight,
bringing the center to the coast of the Florida Big Bend Thursday
evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to interact with a
deep-layer trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley and swing back
to the northwest and stall near the Tennessee Valley late Friday
into the weekend. The track guidance remains tightly clustered,
and the NHC forecast is generally just an update of the previous
prediction. It is still too soon at this point to be overly focused
on an exact landfall location and time, since NHC track forecasts
can be off by an average of 60 nm at the 36-hour forecast time.
Helene is expected to move through/over an environment of
relatively low shear, strong upper-level divergence, and sea
surface temperatures of 29-31 degrees Celsius, all of which should
foster additional strengthening. Rapid Intensification (RI)
indices indicate a high chance of RI during the next 24 hours, and
as a result the NHC intensity forecast shows Helene becoming a
major hurricane by Thursday morning. There is still some
uncertainty on exactly how strong Helene will get, and upward
adjustments to the forecast intensity could be required in
subsequent advisories if Helene rapidly intensifies more than
forecast. Regardless, Helene is forecast to be a large major
hurricane when it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. As a
result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend
well away from the center and outside the forecast cone,
particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed
while Helene crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland
penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United
States after landfall, including strong gusts over higher terrain
of the southern Appalachians.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected over
northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico today where
Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are occurring over portions of western Cuba within the
Tropical Storm Warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible
today within the Hurricane Watch area.
2. Due to the large size of Helene, there is a danger of
life-threatening storm surge along the entire west coast of the
Florida Peninsula and Florida Big Bend. The highest inundation of
greater than 10 ft is expected along the Florida Big Bend coast.
Residents in those areas should follow advice given by local
officials and evacuate if told to do so.
3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected across portions
of northern Florida and southern Georgia where the core of Helene
moves inland. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed by early Thursday since tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin within these areas on Thursday. Because of
Helene’s expected fast forward speed, damaging and life-threatening
wind gusts, are expected to penetrate well inland over portions of
the southeastern United States, including in the higher terrain of
the southern Appalachians.
4. Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western
Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across western Cuba
and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula into early Thursday.
Considerable and potentially life-threatening flash and urban
flooding is expected across portions of northwestern and northern
Florida, the Southeast, southern Appalachians, and the Upper
Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. This includes the risk of
landslides across the southern Appalachians. Widespread minor to
moderate river flooding is likely, and isolated major river flooding
is possible.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/1500Z 21.6N 86.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 23.0N 86.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 25.7N 85.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 34.3N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 28/0000Z 36.6N 86.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 28/1200Z 36.9N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 29/1200Z 36.6N 87.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Advisories
BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
100 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
...HELENE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 86.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
100 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
...HELENE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 86.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Advisories
BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
...HELENE STRENGTHENING...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 86.6W
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
A ragged eye is becoming apparent in visible satellite imagery and
has also been observed in recent radar data from Cancun and western
Cuba. Based on the improved structure, the initial intensity is
set at 75 kt, which is at the high end of the satellite intensity
estimates. This is also supported by the earlier Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance mission, which measured a peak 700-mb flight-level
wind of 81 kt.
Helene has turned northward (355/9 kt) and is expected to
accelerate toward the north or north-northeast during the next
24-36 hours as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico and crosses the
Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. After landfall, the
system is forecast to interact with a deep-layer trough to the west
and turn northwestward with a decrease in speed over the Tennessee
Valley.
The environment appears primed for significant strengthening while
Helene moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast track more or
less runs along the axis of the Loop Current during the next 24
hours, where ocean temperatures are about 30 degrees Celsius. In
addition, Helene will be moving through an environment of low
vertical shear and strong upper-level divergence. Some of the
Rapid Intensification (RI) indices, particular DTOPS, respond to
this environment by indicating at least a 90 percent chance of a
35-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast now shows an intensity of 115 kt (Category 4) at
24 hours, which is mirrored by several of the regional hurricane
models and the SHIPS guidance. It should be noted that additional
strengthening is possible beyond 24 hours before Helene makes
landfall Thursday evening.
Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the
Big Bend coast of Florida. As a result, storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center and outside
the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the
fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far
inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern
United States, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians. A higher-than-normal gust factor has been
indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions
of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high
as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There
is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder
of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. Residents in those
areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if
told to do so.
2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected
within the eyewall of Helene when it makes landfall in the Florida
Big Bend region late Thursday. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed by early Thursday before tropical
storm conditions arrive. Damaging and life-threatening
hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well
inland over portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia late
Thursday and Thursday night where Hurricane Warnings are in effect.
Strong wind gusts are also likely farther north across portions of
northern Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly over the higher
terrain of the southern Appalachians.
3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
including landslides, is expected across portions of the southern
Appalachians through Friday. Considerable to locally catastrophic
flash and urban flooding is likely for northwestern and northern
Florida and the Southeast through Friday. Widespread minor to
moderate river flooding is likely, and isolated major river flooding
is possible.
4. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected over
northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this
evening where Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings are in effect.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of western
Cuba within the Tropical Storm Warning area, and hurricane
conditions are possible this evening within the Hurricane Watch
area. Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western
Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across western Cuba
and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula into early Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 22.5N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 24.1N 86.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 27.4N 85.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 32.1N 84.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/1800Z 36.1N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/0600Z 37.1N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/1800Z 36.8N 88.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/1800Z 37.0N 88.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
...HELENE STRENGTHENING...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 86.6W
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
A ragged eye is becoming apparent in visible satellite imagery and
has also been observed in recent radar data from Cancun and western
Cuba. Based on the improved structure, the initial intensity is
set at 75 kt, which is at the high end of the satellite intensity
estimates. This is also supported by the earlier Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance mission, which measured a peak 700-mb flight-level
wind of 81 kt.
Helene has turned northward (355/9 kt) and is expected to
accelerate toward the north or north-northeast during the next
24-36 hours as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico and crosses the
Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. After landfall, the
system is forecast to interact with a deep-layer trough to the west
and turn northwestward with a decrease in speed over the Tennessee
Valley.
The environment appears primed for significant strengthening while
Helene moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast track more or
less runs along the axis of the Loop Current during the next 24
hours, where ocean temperatures are about 30 degrees Celsius. In
addition, Helene will be moving through an environment of low
vertical shear and strong upper-level divergence. Some of the
Rapid Intensification (RI) indices, particular DTOPS, respond to
this environment by indicating at least a 90 percent chance of a
35-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast now shows an intensity of 115 kt (Category 4) at
24 hours, which is mirrored by several of the regional hurricane
models and the SHIPS guidance. It should be noted that additional
strengthening is possible beyond 24 hours before Helene makes
landfall Thursday evening.
Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the
Big Bend coast of Florida. As a result, storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center and outside
the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the
fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far
inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern
United States, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians. A higher-than-normal gust factor has been
indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions
of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high
as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There
is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder
of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. Residents in those
areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if
told to do so.
2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected
within the eyewall of Helene when it makes landfall in the Florida
Big Bend region late Thursday. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed by early Thursday before tropical
storm conditions arrive. Damaging and life-threatening
hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well
inland over portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia late
Thursday and Thursday night where Hurricane Warnings are in effect.
Strong wind gusts are also likely farther north across portions of
northern Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly over the higher
terrain of the southern Appalachians.
3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
including landslides, is expected across portions of the southern
Appalachians through Friday. Considerable to locally catastrophic
flash and urban flooding is likely for northwestern and northern
Florida and the Southeast through Friday. Widespread minor to
moderate river flooding is likely, and isolated major river flooding
is possible.
4. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected over
northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this
evening where Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings are in effect.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of western
Cuba within the Tropical Storm Warning area, and hurricane
conditions are possible this evening within the Hurricane Watch
area. Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western
Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across western Cuba
and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula into early Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 22.5N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 24.1N 86.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 27.4N 85.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 32.1N 84.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/1800Z 36.1N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/0600Z 37.1N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 28/1800Z 36.8N 88.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 29/1800Z 37.0N 88.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Advisories
BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
700 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
...HELENE LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 86.6W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
700 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
...HELENE LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 86.6W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
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Re: ATL: HELENE - Advisories
BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
...HELENE EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND STORM SURGES TO
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 86.6W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
Satellite images show that Helene has a well-organized appearance,
with numerous convective banding features. A ragged-looking eye
feature is also apparent. However, reports from both Air Force and
a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system suggest
that the it lacks a well-defined inner core with a somewhat broad
maximum wind field for now. The central pressure has dropped a
little to around 972 mb. Given the slowly falling central
pressure, the intensity is maintained at 75 kt for this advisory.
Helene's structure and intensity will continue to be closely
monitored by Hurricane Hunter aircraft tonight and Thursday.
The hurricane continues moving northward with an estimated initial
motion of 360/08 kt. For the next couple of days, the steering
scenario for this system remains basically unchanged from the
earlier advisory. The flow between a mid-tropospheric trough over
the east-central United States and a ridge over the western
Atlantic should result in Helene accelerating northward to
north-northeastward during the next 24 to 36 hours. This motion
will bring the center of Helene to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
coast in about 24 hours. The official track forecast through
landfall is very similar to the previous NHC prediction and remains
close to the corrected consensus guidance. After landfall, the
trough to the northwest of the tropical cyclone becomes a cutoff
low, and Helene should turn leftward as it rotates around the low.
In 3-4 days, the system should become a shallow extratropical
cyclone within weaker steering currents.
Helene should be in an atmospheric and oceanic environment over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico that will be very conducive for
strengthening. The system is expected to traverse the Loop Current,
which has especially high oceanic heat content. This, along with
fairly low vertical wind shear and a moist mid- to lower-
tropospheric air mass, should likely result in rapid
intensification before landfall. The official forecast continues
to call for the hurricane to reach category 4 status tomorrow. It
should be noted that the HAFS-A and HAFS-B regional hurricane models
show even more intensification than indicated here.
Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the
Big Bend coast of Florida. As a result, storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center and outside
the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the
fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far
inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern
United States, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians. A higher-than-normal gust factor is
indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions
of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high
as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There
is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder
of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. Residents in those
areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if
told to do so.
2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected
within the eyewall of Helene when it makes landfall in the Florida
Big Bend region late Thursday. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed by early Thursday before tropical
storm conditions arrive. Damaging and life-threatening
hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well
inland over portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia late
Thursday and Thursday night where Hurricane Warnings are in effect.
Strong wind gusts are also likely farther north across portions of
northern Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly over the higher
terrain of the southern Appalachians.
3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
including numerous landslides, is expected across portions of the
southern Appalachians through Friday. Considerable to locally
catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for northwestern and
northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday. Widespread minor
to moderate river flooding and isolated major river flooding are
likely.
4. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western
Cuba within the Tropical Storm Warning area. Hurricane Helene will
bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean with
potentially significant flooding across western Cuba and the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula into early Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 23.1N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 25.4N 86.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 29.5N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 34.3N 84.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/0000Z 36.7N 87.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/1200Z 36.8N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/0000Z 36.7N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/0000Z 36.7N 84.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
...HELENE EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND STORM SURGES TO
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 86.6W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
Satellite images show that Helene has a well-organized appearance,
with numerous convective banding features. A ragged-looking eye
feature is also apparent. However, reports from both Air Force and
a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system suggest
that the it lacks a well-defined inner core with a somewhat broad
maximum wind field for now. The central pressure has dropped a
little to around 972 mb. Given the slowly falling central
pressure, the intensity is maintained at 75 kt for this advisory.
Helene's structure and intensity will continue to be closely
monitored by Hurricane Hunter aircraft tonight and Thursday.
The hurricane continues moving northward with an estimated initial
motion of 360/08 kt. For the next couple of days, the steering
scenario for this system remains basically unchanged from the
earlier advisory. The flow between a mid-tropospheric trough over
the east-central United States and a ridge over the western
Atlantic should result in Helene accelerating northward to
north-northeastward during the next 24 to 36 hours. This motion
will bring the center of Helene to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
coast in about 24 hours. The official track forecast through
landfall is very similar to the previous NHC prediction and remains
close to the corrected consensus guidance. After landfall, the
trough to the northwest of the tropical cyclone becomes a cutoff
low, and Helene should turn leftward as it rotates around the low.
In 3-4 days, the system should become a shallow extratropical
cyclone within weaker steering currents.
Helene should be in an atmospheric and oceanic environment over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico that will be very conducive for
strengthening. The system is expected to traverse the Loop Current,
which has especially high oceanic heat content. This, along with
fairly low vertical wind shear and a moist mid- to lower-
tropospheric air mass, should likely result in rapid
intensification before landfall. The official forecast continues
to call for the hurricane to reach category 4 status tomorrow. It
should be noted that the HAFS-A and HAFS-B regional hurricane models
show even more intensification than indicated here.
Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the
Big Bend coast of Florida. As a result, storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center and outside
the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the
fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far
inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern
United States, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians. A higher-than-normal gust factor is
indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions
of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high
as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There
is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder
of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. Residents in those
areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if
told to do so.
2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected
within the eyewall of Helene when it makes landfall in the Florida
Big Bend region late Thursday. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed by early Thursday before tropical
storm conditions arrive. Damaging and life-threatening
hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well
inland over portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia late
Thursday and Thursday night where Hurricane Warnings are in effect.
Strong wind gusts are also likely farther north across portions of
northern Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly over the higher
terrain of the southern Appalachians.
3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,
including numerous landslides, is expected across portions of the
southern Appalachians through Friday. Considerable to locally
catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for northwestern and
northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday. Widespread minor
to moderate river flooding and isolated major river flooding are
likely.
4. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western
Cuba within the Tropical Storm Warning area. Hurricane Helene will
bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean with
potentially significant flooding across western Cuba and the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula into early Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 23.1N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 25.4N 86.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 29.5N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 34.3N 84.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/0000Z 36.7N 87.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/1200Z 36.8N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/0000Z 36.7N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/0000Z 36.7N 84.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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