ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

Noted that with the latest advisory suite the hurricane wind probability for Tampa is down to 8% from 13% yesterday. 70% for TS winds, which is up, and 23% for high-end TS winds.

I was just looking at that and noticing. Looks like this advisory ticked the track west and knocked those wind probs down some. We're right on the edge..I'm uneasy bit feeling cautiously optimistic

[REDHurricane]

947 and awfully close to landfall at 60 hours (Thursday 8pm local time). That's a major. Sorry wrong thread. We were going over the ICON as it filled in on the models thread. But here's the almost final solution before landfall for everyone on this thread.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

ICON stronger is a worrying sign…

Definitely -- ICON is very good with track but underestimates intensity, so it's unusual to see it get down below 950mb especially less than 3 days out

[FLLurker32]

NHC is throwing a crumb out on track uncertainty despite model agreement. I don’t envy their position right now. A lot at stake with a likely major hurricane on the way and very limited time with a defined CoC to pin it.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1838597117448720884

[Pipelines182]

Recon confirms that swirl we see moving SW is the LLC, curious what this ends up doing to Helene.....

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1838601271663550750

[ObsessedMiami]

My brother is in Liberty County pretty close to the center of the cone and is agonizing to stay or go. He has a prefab home that did well in Michael but is trying to see if they end up on the western side. But I understand that the wind field will be large with Helene. Will it be large to the west of center or more so east?
Thanks for all you guys do

[MJGarrison]

Recon confirms that swirl we see moving SW is the LLC, curious what this ends up doing to Helene.....

We always talk about two LL vortices rotating around one another. I wonder if this is low level and the mid level vortices wobbling around one another, similar to a wobbling top.


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[jdjaguar]

My brother is in Liberty County pretty close to the center of the cone and is agonizing to stay or go. He has a prefab home that did well in Michael but is trying to see if they end up on the western side. But I understand that the wind field will be large with Helene. Will it be large to the west of center or more so east?
Thanks for all you guys do

east

[StPeteMike]

Pinellas County schools closed Wednesday and Thursday.

[Pipelines182]

Recon confirms that swirl we see moving SW is the LLC, curious what this ends up doing to Helene.....

We always talk about two LL vortices rotating around one another. I wonder if this is low level and the mid level vortices wobbling around one another, similar to a wobbling top.


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They do do that, but if that's what's happening we should start to see it move due south, then east here soon. If that isn't what's happening, Helene is literally getting ripped apart and there will be no development at all for awhile. We'll see here soon.

[FLLurker32]

My brother is in Liberty County pretty close to the center of the cone and is agonizing to stay or go. He has a prefab home that did well in Michael but is trying to see if they end up on the western side. But I understand that the wind field will be large with Helene. Will it be large to the west of center or more so east?
Thanks for all you guys do

I’m a lifelong, born and raised Floridian. If it were me in the current center within 48 hours of impact for what is expected to be a major hurricane, I would not be planning to stay in a prefab home. At the very least I would be making the plans and preparing to evacuate to a more sturdy structure.

[CronkPSU]

tampa schools...

"All Hillsborough County Schools will be closed Wednesday, September 25 through Thursday, September 26. A decision for Friday, September 27, will be made later."

[Powellrm]

Central NC here. Keeping an eye on the H off the NC coast to see if it'll hold up and push this thing farther west instead of into central NC. Parts of central and western NC are already getting plenty of rain this week prior to the arrival of Helene. And we've gotten tons of rain coming up to this week as well lately. The inland rain post landfall is going to be a nightmare for everyone.

I'm going to go fill up sandbags this week and expect the worst.

[Frank P]

This is a weird development, still looks like the LLC is taking a nosedive, maybe it'll wash out and develop a new one.

[NAVAIDNICK]

tampa schools...

"All Hillsborough County Schools will be closed Wednesday, September 25 through Thursday, September 26. A decision for Friday, September 27, will be made later."

This was just posted on the Sarasota County Schools website: "All traditional public schools will be closed for normal school operations from Wednesday, September 25 through Friday, September 27 due to the storm. This includes all after-school activities. Visit www.sarasotacountyschools.net/hurricane for the latest district updates."

[Powellrm]

This is a weird development, still looks like the LLC is taking a nosedive, maybe it'll wash out and develop a new one.
https://i.ibb.co/BrnJvKV/giff.gif

Id wonder if that'll soon push out any dry air and begin to wrap and organize as it moves north into more ideal conditions.

[Janie2006]

When WXMAN57 speaks I listen...even if I don't like the message. It's the bay area so I'm holding out for a better deal!

It’s like the old television commercial for E. F. Hutton: “When the Heat Miser talks, people listen.”

[Pipelines182]

This is a weird development, still looks like the LLC is taking a nosedive, maybe it'll wash out and develop a new one.
https://i.ibb.co/BrnJvKV/giff.gif

Not sure where a new one would develop, all the convection to the NE is waning now too. Ironically its the poorest it's looked all day, right after it gets christened lol. This could end up being a significant event in what ends up happening with Helene. I haven't seen a single model, or met, predict this happening.

[MJGarrison]

This is a weird development, still looks like the LLC is taking a nosedive, maybe it'll wash out and develop a new one.

FWIW the 12Z GFS does show a SW dive of the LL Circulation in the sort term, then what appears to be a LL reformation to the north later on.


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