ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[robbielyn]

It’s definitely filling in. And I don’t see much shear to hold it steady once the convection fills in. If she can wrap the convection around the llc by evening, that’s 2 full days of strengthening.

The llc also has been stationary for a while and think it’s about to start moving north/NNW with this stall.

Looking at the visible...Helene is starting to get that "look"

Yeah its clear as day that it's coming together now.

[DunedinDave]

Appears to be moving more NW at the moment or wobbling between WNW and NW.

This is what I see, too. Over the last 2 hours, it's gone from "establishing" the COC which gave it that appearance of a SW motion, then drifted almost due westward, perhaps just slightly north of due west, and now appears to be wobbling essentially due north. That translates to an overall NW motion.

Yeah it’s wobbling north right now. I don’t see any west component the last few hours now. Could just be temporary although based on the models it should start pulling more north and less west before gearing up for that big NE turn tomorrow. Where it is when it makes that big turn is going to be super important. That’s why even wobbles at this point matter.

[Stormlover70]

We are staying in our mobile home in new port richey. Jim cantore was just here. He will go north.

[GCANE]

Naked swirl is about to get dressed.

[cycloneye]

Naked swirl is about to get dressed.

Just in time for the two planes that will be there late afternoon and evening.

[Steve]

If this turns out to be completely different than projected as in weakening significantly, people will stop getting ready at least here in fl. here we are planning for cat 3 gonna be bad and maybe won't be that bad at all. while that is a relief for sure, it is exhausting thinking something bad is going to happen and stressful to say the least. It's no one's fault per se but this year is anything but climatology as we know it. Nothing has happened the way climatology says it should.

That's true, this year seems different. I agree with what Levi says though, if it doesn't get its act together soon, then it's going to come in weaker than expected. Even though it's still possible to make cat 3 status, I think a cat 2 is more likely, especially since per the NHC, no further strengthening is expected 12 hours prior to landfall. It would be great if the predicted landfall would drop to a cat 1, but I don't think it will come in that low.

I agree. The delay in organization and also having to get itself together in the Gulf with not that much time left will probably inhibit how strong and deep it can get. You figure there will be some slight pressure drops and organization through the channel but any major strengthening would be after it got through the channel and away from the YP. And say it's through there by 10 or so tomorrow, it only has 30ish hours to whatever it's going to do minus any period of that time it’s static. We've seen things get stronger in less than that amount of time. But it's not particularly likely this would be one of those times (not saying it couldn't be with the right conditions but less likely than more likely IMHO). I'm waiting to see what the early intensity models do for 18z and if they'll come off that Cat 3 idea unless it actually hit the peninsula instead of the NE Gulf. Seems like Cat 2 might be a reasonable ceiling though I'm not making that specific call.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS had the LLC bounce south then north in the next 18 hours at @85.6. It's occurring now a full degree E at @84.6. Maybe this very small eddy/LLC is rotating around a larger broader circulation, but if this is what the models are tracking it's occurring a full degree east than modeled.

[Nimbus]

Naked swirl is about to get dressed.

Just in time for the two planes that will be there late afternoon and evening.

Must be a flat shallow bottom to the pressure gradient so the center can slide around like eggs in a frying pan.

[jdjaguar]

I realize the curvature of the earth affects longitude distances, but at the expected latitude of landfall is 1 degree roughly 60 miles?

I ask this due to the sheer size of the storm, and want to gauge winds in the NE FL area.

[robbielyn]

We are staying in our mobile home in new port richey. Jim cantore was just here. He will go north.

Today he was there? Wonder why?

[psyclone]

Definitely no urgency here based on my retail trips today. Some extra water sales and the liquor store traffic is brisk. There's a good energetic vibe out there

[StPeteMike]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3rfJ3Bt1/43eb7fc7-1cc8-417b-94e0-a4163e9ee43d.gif [/url]

12z GFS had the LLC bounce south then north in the next 18 hours at @85.6. It's occurring now a full degree E at @84.6. Maybe this very small eddy/LLC is rotating around a larger broader circulation, but if this is what the models are tracking it's occurring a full degree east than modeled.

It might not go over the tip there on Western Cuba, but I think it will get close and defy many of the models that show Helene closer to Yucatán or even going over.

Once she fills that naked swirl, it’s off to the races unfortunately.

[Powellrm]

Maybe this is just my untrained eye, but it sure looks like that naked swirl is "rapidly" being surrounded by convection.

It's bizarre how so many people can see so many different things, many polar opposites, when looking at the same thing.

It seems to me that its structure is coming together nicely and once that NW quadrant finishes closing off, I think it's primed and ready.

Same. I see Helene coming together nicely. It’ll close off and be well on its way. I’m not seeing what others are seeing.

[Pipelines182]

low level circulation appears to be becoming better defined and vigorous, but there is no sign at all of rotation at the mid/upper levels

[Nimbus]

I realize the curvature of the earth affects longitude distances, but at the expected latitude of landfall is 1 degree roughly 60 miles?

I ask this due to the sheer size of the storm, and want to gauge winds in the NE FL area.

1 degree longitude is about 69 miles at 29N

[jdjaguar]

I realize the curvature of the earth affects longitude distances, but at the expected latitude of landfall is 1 degree roughly 60 miles?

I ask this due to the sheer size of the storm, and want to gauge winds in the NE FL area.

1 degree longitude is about 69 miles at 29N

We are at 30.284 N, so 60 miles give or take?

[Weatherboy1]

It’s definitely filling in. And I don’t see much shear to hold it steady once the convection fills in. If she can wrap the convection around the llc by evening, that’s 2 full days of strengthening.

The llc also has been stationary for a while and think it’s about to start moving north/NNW with this stall.

I think this is VERY important. I think the stall/loop was probably because Helene reached the end of the westward-steering influence...and now it's feeling the "tug" of the new steering influence. IF that's right, she isn't getting anywhere near the Yucatan - and that could mean a more-easterly landfall. Watching very closely on that front...

[psyclone]

I am curious about the placement of warnings. It seems like the TS warning/Hurricane watch combo is a good option for much of the Florida west coast since the track is pretty far offshore and the Hurricane winds probs are low....so far..

[skillz305]

I guess we are wobble watching between Yucatán and Western Cuba

[xironman]

It should be about to turn NW