ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MGC]

Convective pattern of Helene is greatly improved from this morning. Looks like cyclone is about to take off.....MGC

[Ubuntwo]

Buoy 42056 down to 999.6mb and still reporting 20kt 1-min sustained winds.
Edit: 999.2 now.

[jlauderdal]

I guess we are wobble watching between Yucatán and Western Cuba

For sure and then on approach to Florida, wobbles matter.

[sponger]

Duval Schools in Jacksonville closed Thursday and Friday.

[DunedinDave]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3rfJ3Bt1/43eb7fc7-1cc8-417b-94e0-a4163e9ee43d.gif [/url]

12z GFS had the LLC bounce south then north in the next 18 hours at @85.6. It's occurring now a full degree E at @84.6. Maybe this very small eddy/LLC is rotating around a larger broader circulation, but if this is what the models are tracking it's occurring a full degree east than modeled.

It might not go over the tip there on Western Cuba, but I think it will get close and defy many of the models that show Helene closer to Yucatán or even going over.

Once she fills that naked swirl, it’s off to the races unfortunately.

From a size perspective, this is going to be a big girl, isn't it? Sure has the makings of that. Hopefully it doesn't get to the size that Wilma was. That thing was one of the biggest monsters I ever saw. Gilbert was another. Let's hope we don't see that here.

[Weatherboy1]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3rfJ3Bt1/43eb7fc7-1cc8-417b-94e0-a4163e9ee43d.gif [/url]

12z GFS had the LLC bounce south then north in the next 18 hours at @85.6. It's occurring now a full degree E at @84.6. Maybe this very small eddy/LLC is rotating around a larger broader circulation, but if this is what the models are tracking it's occurring a full degree east than modeled.

It might not go over the tip there on Western Cuba, but I think it will get close and defy many of the models that show Helene closer to Yucatán or even going over.

Once she fills that naked swirl, it’s off to the races unfortunately.

From a size perspective, this is going to be a big girl, isn't it? Sure has the makings of that. Hopefully it doesn't get to the size that Wilma was. That thing was one of the biggest monsters I ever saw. Gilbert was another. Let's hope we don't see that here.

100%. If you zoom out and do a wide-perspective satellite image, you see just how enormous the cloud envelope of Helene is.

[3090]

Maybe this is just my untrained eye, but it sure looks like that naked swirl is "rapidly" being surrounded by convection.

It's bizarre how so many people can see so many different things, many polar opposites, when looking at the same thing.

It seems to me that its structure is coming together nicely and once that NW quadrant finishes closing off, I think it's primed and ready.

That is the LLC that was identified in the 2pm NHC update, their location matched that naked LLC in the sat images... so why are people still doubting it, and it has been pulling convections towards it for the past hour or so.

Because people are going to people…

[StPeteMike]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3rfJ3Bt1/43eb7fc7-1cc8-417b-94e0-a4163e9ee43d.gif [/url]

12z GFS had the LLC bounce south then north in the next 18 hours at @85.6. It's occurring now a full degree E at @84.6. Maybe this very small eddy/LLC is rotating around a larger broader circulation, but if this is what the models are tracking it's occurring a full degree east than modeled.

It might not go over the tip there on Western Cuba, but I think it will get close and defy many of the models that show Helene closer to Yucatán or even going over.

Once she fills that naked swirl, it’s off to the races unfortunately.

From a size perspective, this is going to be a big girl, isn't it? Sure has the makings of that. Hopefully it doesn't get to the size that Wilma was. That thing was one of the biggest monsters I ever saw. Gilbert was another. Let's hope we don't see that here.

Yep, which will also exacerbate the surge issue along the west coast because she might be gone from the area mid-Friday, but we’re still going to have an onshore flow of wind while she moves up north. Going to also be a storm where both the west coast and east coast of Florida have storm surge watches and warnings

[Nimbus]

I guess we are wobble watching between Yucatán and Western Cuba

For sure and then on approach to Florida, wobbles matter.

Especially for Tallahassee with the official forecast undecided about which eyewall is going through the most populated part of the city.

[xironman]

Talk about banding. With the position of the dying ULL it is not so much shear now as ventilation

[galaxy401]

Next 24 hours are going to be very interesting. Looks like a storm that will soon be a monster...

[Hurricane Mike]

3:30pm Video Update for those bored between advisories

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOUZfQSYQk0

[StPeteMike]

Talk about banding. With the position of the dying ULL it is not so much shear now as ventilation

https://i.imgur.com/lpxJEPs.gif

That close up. I know we love our wobble watch, but I wouldn’t call that image a wobble to the north. Maybe a wobble to the west a little, but that’s surely due north.

[Visioen]

Next time we see ocean in the center is gonna be eye-opening.

[3090]

Next 24 hours are going to be very interesting. Looks like a storm that will soon be a monster...

Been reading this type of thing for 2-3 days. Eventually it will come true maybe. Hopefully it doesn’t.

[gulf701]

The circulation seems to be gaining convection at very steady rate.

[Frank P]

Talk about banding. With the position of the dying ULL it is not so much shear now as ventilation

https://i.imgur.com/lpxJEPs.gif

On that loop it looks to be moving just west of due north... not going to hit the tip of the Yucatan if that continues.. closer to the tip of Cuba... love the daytime sat images... especially when I can track a nekked LLC, but indeed it is pulling that convection towards the center and has been since lunch time. I based everything on when I last ate.

[Hurricaneman]

Next time we see ocean in the center is gonna be eye-opening.

I see what you did there

[DunedinDave]

Per the NHC, it’s supposed to be at 20.3, 85.2 in hours. It’s going to have to make a sharp turn to NW to hit that mark or else it will be east of forecast already.

[TomballEd]

Not many hints of banding features or rotation in the wider view infrared. Big system, yes, looks like a healthy TC, not at all. This probably isn't in a hurry to organize.