2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

I’m interested to see the euro ensembles too. I do wonder if high pressure will be around or if this goes OTS. 2024 has been an unusual year so I wouldn’t be surprised if this continues west or goes north.
Can’t believe MDR season may be going into October

[Weathertracker96]

I’m interested to see the euro ensembles too. I do wonder if high pressure will be around or if this goes OTS. 2024 has been an unusual year so I wouldn’t be surprised if this continues west or goes north.
Can’t believe MDR season may be going into October

https://i.postimg.cc/FHjFC5QF/bbbrr.png

https://i.postimg.cc/rpjVc1mv/bbb.png

Thank you for posting. This is something to watch moving forward.

[cajungal]

I’m interested to see the euro ensembles too. I do wonder if high pressure will be around or if this goes OTS. 2024 has been an unusual year so I wouldn’t be surprised if this continues west or goes north.
Can’t believe MDR season may be going into October

https://i.postimg.cc/FHjFC5QF/bbbrr.png

https://i.postimg.cc/rpjVc1mv/bbb.png

And what is that 2nd blob in the gulf? Louisiana is closed

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok, I did not need to see that 12z GFS, thank you. What a terrible day to have eyes

[kevin]

18z GFS spawns another 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic over the next 2 weeks including another major hurricane (this was the hurricane that went Irma at 12z, at least it's recurving in this run). Busy times ahead.

[Category5Kaiju]

18z GFS spawns another 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic over the next 2 weeks including another major hurricane (this was the hurricane that went Irma at 12z, at least it's recurving in this run). Busy times ahead.

If this run pans out then we could theoretically be on the L or M name by early October.

[WeatherBoy2000]

The 18z gfs run is reflecting what overall looks to be a very favorable period for Atlantic activity in the coming weeks:

 https://x.com/MassachusettsWx/status/1838728070720594157

[Weathertracker96]

I was checking the 18z GEFS ensembles and they start showing Caribbean activity around next Monday. I know the 18z operational had something down there too. This could easily drop but It seems we may have to watch this area.

[Stratton23]

unfortunately now the euro is also picking up on a 2nd CAG system moving into the gulf in about 9-10 days, might be no rest for the wary after helene moves through unfortunately

[chris_fit]

That's NOT Helene....

[Stratton23]

12z GFS and CMC getting more aggressive with another CAG system getting into the gulf

[Teban54]

Wait what?

[Hurricane2022]

Wait what?

https://i.postimg.cc/nVvPjtkY/ecens-2024-09-25-12-Z-240-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

The switch flipped merely a month later than usual. Delayed but not denied.

Seeing this season regularly producing TCs until December 20 instead of November 20 would be somenthing very 2024-esque

[Stratton23]

GFS with another CAG system, and hits florida again as another hurricane in 9-10 days

[Weathertracker96]

GFS with another CAG system, and hits florida again as another hurricane in 9-10 days

Seems 2024 may be a backloaded season. Will be interesting to see if something comes from this. It seems the pattern may be repetitive. I know CMC showed something in BOC. I do wonder if we’ll get a lemon if more models pick this up by the weekend

[chris_fit]

06Z GFS continues with another FL hit - dealing a pretty good hit to Tampa, from a horrible angle. Cat 2-3 right in the kisser. I wouldn't call this fantasy range either...

Good news for us in Tampa: ~7-12 days is out is when you want to be in the bulls eye

[chris_fit]

EURO also has a signal, but MUCH MUCH weaker. Appears to get caught up in the low level steering and shoots west.

[chris_fit]

CMC also has this just meandering in the BoC. That's the big 3 (Icon doesn't go out that far) - all on board.

[MetroMike]

06Z GFS continues with another FL hit - dealing a pretty good hit to Tampa, from a horrible angle. Cat 2-3 right in the kisser. I wouldn't call this fantasy range either...

Good news for us in Tampa: ~7-12 days is out is when you want to be in the bulls eye

https://i.imgur.com/izD4E6o.gif

True it’s an over a week away from that hit but model tracks seem to be more accurate as of late.
We shall see as they say.

[Stratton23]

Both the 12z CMC and GFS have hurricanes in the gulf behind helene, resulting from the 2nd CAG system