ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

The broad-scale structure actually looks solid. You can tell that shear is lessening and outflow is improving. Probably gonna have a band-heavy core, though, which increases the odds of an EWRC at some point.

[FLLurker32]

Just a reminder that it was the 12z suite that showed Helene doing the tango with the Yucatán, not NHC.

NHC cone as of now only has the Yucatán coast in play with the likely track miles offshore — through the night tonight. She’s just a big girl doing the “wobble wobble” dance through the pub right now, as expected. Give her some time to clear her eyes (eye), pull up the spanx and get herself together. She’ll get there.

[Frank P]

I expect the surge will be the main even of this system, most especially if she wobbles east of the forecast track due to the more populated areas. I sure hope everyone in a surge area evacuates or they will be regretting it big time, as many of my friends who did not evacuate during Katrina but was fortunate enough to survive told me it was the worse experience in their life, and every single person, EVERYONE said they would NEVER do it again. Know your elevation and get the hell out if there is any doubt about whether or not you will be affected by the surge.

[Stormcenter]

Looks likes she is finally coming together, hard to believe she'll be near landfall in less than 48 hours.

[ScottNAtlanta]

some good data SHIPS/ buoy data intel..

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4

Pressure is down to 997 at buoy 42056 and falling pretty rapidly

[grapealcoholic]

Big CB hot tower over center. Showtime..

[ConvergenceZone]

In spite of how Helene looks now, I think she will still make hurricane strength by tomorrow night. But may not really start strengthening until tomorrow morning after it gets it core/center together.

[Blown Away]

Helene has been spinning in 84-85W & 19-20N box all afternoon. No way it's moving WN at 12 mph...

[ROCK]

some good data SHIPS/ buoy data intel..

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4

Pressure is down to 997 at buoy 42056 and falling pretty rapidly

yeah saw that...sometimes I am lazy and wait for recon when its almost sitting on top of a buoy...lol

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1838680119793045712

[Hugo1989]

Mid-level flow rotation is getting healthier. Nothing can't stop Helene now!

[NDG]

Crazy how big Helene is already getting, can I dare to say to say it is already starting to steal some moisture from John?

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1838680292791320958

[grapealcoholic]

Center likely down to ~995 accounting for wind at buoy site

[xironman]

In spite of how Helene looks now, I think she will still make hurricane strength by tomorrow night. But may not really start strengthening until tomorrow morning after it gets it core/center together.

Could be tonight the pressure drops at 42056 are pretty epic.

[DunedinDave]

Unless the center is in a different spot, it does look to be moving due north.

Having Ian flashbacks here because I remember distinctly it was supposed to move NW off the western tip of Cuba and it made that north turn early and I remember talking here about it on here and how it actually hit the western side of the Isle of Youth when it wasn't supposed to. The Isle wasn't even in the cone 24 hours before it got hit. And then after it crossed Cuba that NE turn way earlier than any model thought it was and then again, the models had to shift.

Storms coming from this area can be very tricky and do what they want to do. Not saying this will but just be watchful.

[jdjaguar]

Mid-level flow rotation is getting healthier. Nothing can't stop Helena now!

Shrimping?
More
Like prawning!

Echoes of Gilbert/Wilma

[xironman]

Crazy how big Helene is already getting, can I dare to say to say it is already starting to steal some moisture from John?

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1838680292791320958

It looks like the dying ULL will pull moisture from John and prevent Helene from ingesting continental air

[galaxy401]

Looks likes she is finally coming together, hard to believe she'll be near landfall in less than 48 hours.

Landfall is still over 48 hours away.

[Nimbus]

some good data SHIPS/ buoy data intel..

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4

Pressure is down to 997 at buoy 42056 and falling pretty rapidly

Wind shift from 40 degrees to 79 probably means the LLC is headed west on a track south of 19 degrees 49 minutes.

[Zonacane]

I spy dual rotating hot towers