ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

The size of Helene's wind field will be massive, and it will cause a massive number of power outages throughout Florida. What would normally take a few hours to resolve could take many days and even weeks to complete full restoration of services. Florida can't rely on the neighboring states to supply additional linemen to help either. They'll all be busy trying to restore power in their own states first! That will be part of Helene's legendary history I bet.

The City of Tallahassee sent me this:

CityofTLH update: Mutual aid crews from five states are en route and will arrive late tomorrow. Crews are coming from Missouri, Louisiana, Ohio, North Carolina and Oklahoma to assist with response and recovery efforts. Additional crews will be brought in from around the southeast once the hurricane's path has developed.

They’re having to pull resources from way further than Florida due to Helene. Most of the linemen who helped us after the May tornadoes came from nearby electric agencies.

I'm frankly surprised NC is sending linemen since they could also be affected

[FLLurker32]

The size of Helene's wind field will be massive, and it will cause a massive number of power outages throughout Florida. What would normally take a few hours to resolve could take many days and even weeks to complete full restoration of services. Florida can't rely on the neighboring states to supply additional linemen to help either. They'll all be busy trying to restore power in their own states first! That will be part of Helene's legendary history I bet.

My cousin leads a lineman crew out of TX. They received instructions to station in Atlanta 2 days ago so they’ll be ready to go.

[eastcoastFL]

I’m outside watching the clouds start to roll in moving quicker than normal and thinking that someone in Honduras is probably seeing the same thing from the same storm. Weather can be wild.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Not sure if anyone has posted the Cuban radar yet, so here is La Bajada:

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Very interesting. Looking at radar I would put the center at 20.3N, 85W or so. However, recon has found the circulation center near 19.6N, 85.3W. Still not stacked, which explains why the pressure drops have stopped. It is possible that the low level center is being discarded for a new one under the mlc further north, especially given the lack of inner core associated with the current surface circulation. However, if that process is occurring, it’s in the very initial stages. Hard to say if it’s that, or if it will ultimately suck the existing llc under the mlc

I think maybe that SW center is decaying in favor of the more northern one. That's what it looks like on radar.

[Bocadude85]

I guess during the past 2-3 hours the LLC has been meandering around probably tracking to align itself with the MLC.

https://i.imgur.com/5yGEXOv.png

The 3rd center fix was even further sw from the first 2...I don't know what is causing that. It's hard to see at night

The 4th fix is back a little north again in the same longitude, it is doing cyclonic loops is the only logical answer I can think of.

Well if Helene is going to get as far west as the models are showing she better start gaining some longitude.

[Teban54]

Less than 12 hours ago, we had people talking about a naked swirl running away and that Helene may not even become a major. Now Rita and Wilma have been thrown into the discussion.

[sweetpea]

So do we think Helene will possibly be the worst hurricane to ever hit Tallahassee?

Haven’t heard anyone say that and honestly impossible to determine until after the fact.

Ya, we have no idea where this will even make landfall right now, never mind how historical it might be. What is the current strongest storm to hit Tally?

This storm will suck. Wakulla and Taylor have already issued whole county evacuations. Franklin has just done barrier last I heard. So before Tally gets hit we are the speed bump. We have never been hit here in Wakulla by a storm like this. Literally the eye is suppose to come in like 8.5 miles from my house. Nobody here gets it, we are leaving, but my neighbors aren't. They said they will watch my house while they are cooking out. The EOC here in Wakulla is trying to get the message out but no one is listening. Storm surge is supposed to be 10-15 feet, I am about 3.5 miles from the gulf but they are saying it could reach half way across the county towards Tally. Crazy poop!

[eastcoastFL]

The size of Helene's wind field will be massive, and it will cause a massive number of power outages throughout Florida. What would normally take a few hours to resolve could take many days and even weeks to complete full restoration of services. Florida can't rely on the neighboring states to supply additional linemen to help either. They'll all be busy trying to restore power in their own states first! That will be part of Helene's legendary history I bet.

My cousin leads a lineman crew out of TX. They received instructions to station in Atlanta 2 days ago so they’ll be ready to go.

Love to hear that. We will need all the help we can get. Though FPL has become much better over the past 20 years. Back in the early 2,000’s I had to wait weeks for the power to come on after Frances just to lose it a few weeks later with Jeanne. Then wait another three weeks. But in the past decade I’ve only ever lost power for a day or two tops.

[tropicwatch]

Buoy 42056 has reported over a 2mb pressure drop in the last hour.

[eastcoastFL]

Haven’t heard anyone say that and honestly impossible to determine until after the fact.

Ya, we have no idea where this will even make landfall right now, never mind how historical it might be. What is the current strongest storm to hit Tally?

This storm will suck. Wakulla and Taylor have already issued whole county evacuations. Franklin has just done barrier last I heard. So before Tally gets hit we are the speed bump. We have never been hit here in Wakulla by a storm like this. Literally the eye is suppose to come in like 8.5 miles from my house. Nobody here gets it, we are leaving, but my neighbors aren't. They said they will watch my house while they are cooking out. The EOC here in Wakulla is trying to get the message out but no one is listening. Storm surge is supposed to be 10-15 feet, I am about 3.5 miles from the gulf but they are saying it could reach half way across the county towards Tally. Crazy poop!

I’m glad you’re taking it seriously. Some people are just too stubborn. If it does make landfall there they will regret it. It’s not just the storm that sucks and is dangerous it’s the aftermath. Taking a bath in your pool and hoping you have enough propane to make soup on the grill gets old fast.

[Grumpy]

I'm frankly surprised NC is sending linemen since they could also be affected

I moved to NC from FL and am not surprised by this. NC tends to not be prepared for much in the weather spectrum. Snow? Not so much. I spent a week snowed in at my job, waiting for snow plows from another state to bail us out. Hurricanes? Nope. Experienced that too. Waited for power trucks from other states, for days, to bail us out. Unless something has changed, they're volunteering resourecs for something/a lot in return.

[sponger]

I do not know about Tallahassee but here in NE Florida we had 10-15 inches of rain over two weeks. The ground is saturated! It just dried out on the surface today but underneath is a wet sponge.

[wx98]

The size of Helene's wind field will be massive, and it will cause a massive number of power outages throughout Florida. What would normally take a few hours to resolve could take many days and even weeks to complete full restoration of services. Florida can't rely on the neighboring states to supply additional linemen to help either. They'll all be busy trying to restore power in their own states first! That will be part of Helene's legendary history I bet.

This would be the fourth hurricane landfall on the US Gulf coast in 2024. With all the talk about an Atlantic Basin seasonal bust, This is a huge anomaly.

Oddly enough there's been so few landfalls between SEFL through the OBX compared to the Gulf. Only Katrina and Nicole for Florida's Atlantic coast since 2005. Bonkers.

Was just trying to remember this yesterday. I couldn’t think of one after Katrina and then remembered Nicole. Both of those were Cat 1s. Couldn’t remember if there was one between that time. Matthew was a near miss.

[eastcoastFL]

Buoy 42056 has reported over a 2mb pressure drop in the last hour.

That’s interesting because the center passed over that buoy a few hours ago.

[sweetpea]

Ya, we have no idea where this will even make landfall right now, never mind how historical it might be. What is the current strongest storm to hit Tally?

This storm will suck. Wakulla and Taylor have already issued whole county evacuations. Franklin has just done barrier last I heard. So before Tally gets hit we are the speed bump. We have never been hit here in Wakulla by a storm like this. Literally the eye is suppose to come in like 8.5 miles from my house. Nobody here gets it, we are leaving, but my neighbors aren't. They said they will watch my house while they are cooking out. The EOC here in Wakulla is trying to get the message out but no one is listening. Storm surge is supposed to be 10-15 feet, I am about 3.5 miles from the gulf but they are saying it could reach half way across the county towards Tally. Crazy poop!

I’m glad you’re taking it seriously. Some people are just too stubborn. If it does make landfall there they will regret it. It’s not just the storm that sucks and is dangerous it’s the aftermath. Taking a bath in your pool and hoping you have enough propane to make soup on the grill gets old fast.

I will say we were on the fence before the 5:00 update, but we have a tree on our property that could take out half our house. So my husband was like nope, lets go. If it goes, it goes. Luckily he has been in construction for over 30 years so he knows what to do.

[REDHurricane]

Just checked back in on Helene for the first time since this morning and yeah, she definitely has the look of a future cat 5 (almost like a pre-WPac super typhoon as others have said) with the huge moisture field and pretty developed banding already. Once she passes through the Yucatan channel starting line, Helene will be off to the races.

[FLLurker32]

My cousin leads a lineman crew out of TX. They received instructions to station in Atlanta 2 days ago so they’ll be ready to go.

Love to hear that. We will need all the help we can get. Though FPL has become much better over the past 20 years. Back in the early 2,000’s I had to wait weeks for the power to come on after Frances just to lose it a few weeks later with Jeanne. Then wait another three weeks. But in the past decade I’ve only ever lost power for a day or two tops.

I had the same experience with 2 long power outages that year. I lost it for about 2 weeks with Irma. Always happy to know help is there waiting to get everyone back up and running.

[sphelps8681]

Praying for all those in the storms path.

[USTropics]

Totally meant to put this in the Discussion and not models thread (been a long day). Some of us MET students at FSU (mixture of grads/undergrads) will be posting articles before the event, somewhat during, and (power permitting) afterwards. We'll be doing a mixture of current observations, some informative/teaching posts, and other cool things! If you have any suggestions or topics you want us to cover, just drop a comment or message me.

https://rcedergren8.wixsite.com/northflams/post/forecasting-helene-using-satellite-imagery-1

[Craters]

Is there such a thing as a Cat. 6?

no I was joking...lol

I thought you might but I thought I'd better check to make sure. I guess there can be winds that high so I kind of wondered.

If I recall correctly, there's a movement in some meteorological circles to extend the category range because Category 5 is open ended and doesn't really convey the strength of all storms in its slot. Seems like a technicality to me; If it's a Cat 5, it's bad.