ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Drewsey]

The size of Helene's wind field will be massive, and it will cause a massive number of power outages throughout Florida. What would normally take a few hours to resolve could take many days and even weeks to complete full restoration of services. Florida can't rely on the neighboring states to supply additional linemen to help either. They'll all be busy trying to restore power in their own states first! That will be part of Helene's legendary history I bet.

Florida line crews came assist Entergy and us folks in South Louisiana for Francine / Ida. You can rest assure that they will reciprocate and send crews to assist in Florida.

[sponger]

How big will this windfield get? Its 175 miles of tropical storm force winds from the center and its a tropical storm. Could this reach 225 miles or more? Gilbert was what 500-550 miles? A cat 2 of that size is a wrecking ball. What if it makes it to Cat 3 or 4? The storm surge will be incredible regardless. A lot of people are going to be impacted when this is all over.

[sponger]

The size of Helene's wind field will be massive, and it will cause a massive number of power outages throughout Florida. What would normally take a few hours to resolve could take many days and even weeks to complete full restoration of services. Florida can't rely on the neighboring states to supply additional linemen to help either. They'll all be busy trying to restore power in their own states first! That will be part of Helene's legendary history I bet.

Florida line crews came assist Entergy and us folks in South Louisiana for Francine / Ida. You can rest assure that they will reciprocate and send crews to assist in Florida.

Makes me wonder if Pike ever got new trucks? Nothing like seeing a mile long line of 40-50 year old trucks rolling in during Francis and Jeanne. A lot of line men are going to make their Christmas in 2 fruitful weeks.

[Jr0d]

We are already seeing minor road flooding from king tides in Key West. We got a few pieces of Helene's extreme outer bands earlier, wind was not bad but the rain while brief was heavy adding more to the flooded roads.

3 feet of surge on top of king tides is no joke. Hopefully we will not get any surprises tomorrow with a closer than expected pass, higher winds and more than 3' of water rise.

As expected, with the exception of seasoned boaters most are not to concerned about Helene's impact. Schools are not closing, businesses are staying open, no evacuation orders even for mobile homes that I am aware of.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Huge boom in convection north of the center. These cloud tops are crazy cold and high. Idk what is going to stop this storm.

[NDG]

My sister lives in Port Richie, west of Hwy 19 about a block from a canal, I told her to move everything on the first floor to the second floor and to get the heck out of there if indeed the 6-10 feet forecasted storm surge comes to fruition.

[jlauderdal]

We are already seeing minor road flooding from king tides in Key West. We got a few pieces of Helene's extreme outer bands earlier, wind was not bad but the rain while brief was heavy adding more to the flooded roads.

3 feet of surge on top of king tides is no joke. Hopefully we will not get any surprises tomorrow with a closer than expected pass, higher winds and more than 3' of water rise.

As expected, with the exception of seasoned boaters most are not to concerned about Helene's impact. Schools are not closing, businesses are staying open, no evacuation orders even for mobile homes that I am aware of.

Key West is so vulnerable but should do ok in this one. Tomorrow should be far more active in your area.

[Poonwalker]

Gone for 6 hrs and come back to see Pinellas is now under a hurricane warning. Don't focus entirely on the cone is the important thing here. Hoping Helene clips the Yucatan because that’s apparently the only thing that could slow it now. 6-10 ft surge is going to be a big problem here.

[grapealcoholic]

Internal structure is unusual but some deep wrapping convection could sort it out quick. Almost no winds on the south side

[caneman]

My sister lives in Port Richie, west of Hwy 19 about a block from a canal, I told her to move everything on the first floor to the second floor and to get the heck out of there if indeed the 6-10 feet forecasted storm surge comes to fruition.

I lIve south of there in Pinellas County. Everyone here knows how bad flooding is west side of US 19. SHE NEEDS TO LEAVE!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Saw a post comparing Helene to some of the Gulf Coast surge monsters of the early 2000s, like Ivan and Dennis. I think that's an apt comparison for this region with this one, to be honest.

I don't think we're looking at more than a low-end Cat 4 with Helene due to its sheer size despite the favorable conditions, but I think the surge situation is going to be considerably worse than with storms like Michael and Idalia, for example.

[HurricaneBelle]

Gone for 6 hrs and come back to see Pinellas is now under a hurricane warning. Don't focus entirely on the cone is the important thing here. Hoping Helene clips the Yucatan because that’s apparently the only thing that could slow it now. 6-10 ft surge is going to be a big problem here.

Pinellas is not under a hurricane warning as yet, we have a tropical storm warning, storm surge warning and hurricane watch. North of Anclote (Pasco northward) is under a hurricane warning.

[ronjon]

Mandatory evacuation of all coastal zone A in the Tampa Bay metro communities (except Hillsborough what's up with that?) starting 8 am tomorrow. Hernando county is requiring zones A-C.

[caneman]

Gone for 6 hrs and come back to see Pinellas is now under a hurricane warning. Don't focus entirely on the cone is the important thing here. Hoping Helene clips the Yucatan because that’s apparently the only thing that could slow it now. 6-10 ft surge is going to be a big problem here.

Pinellas is not under a hurricane warning as yet, we have a tropical storm warning, storm surge warning and hurricane watch. North of Anclote (Pasco northward) is under a hurricane warning.

Parts of Pinellas should be. I'm in Indian Rocks the very western edge in Pinellas. I would reckon it's gonna pass just as close here as it will Anclote.

[Jr0d]

We are already seeing minor road flooding from king tides in Key West. We got a few pieces of Helene's extreme outer bands earlier, wind was not bad but the rain while brief was heavy adding more to the flooded roads.

3 feet of surge on top of king tides is no joke. Hopefully we will not get any surprises tomorrow with a closer than expected pass, higher winds and more than 3' of water rise.

As expected, with the exception of seasoned boaters most are not to concerned about Helene's impact. Schools are not closing, businesses are staying open, no evacuation orders even for mobile homes that I am aware of.

Key West is so vulnerable but should do ok in this one. Tomorrow should be far more active in your area.

Not expecting significant sustained winds until late tomorrow but we could easily see some high gusts in some of the squalls before that.

So far Hence is more or less following the forecast. As long as it doesn't turn NNW sooner or take a more easterly jog when the turn happens we will be fine. As of right now I probably won't even have to more the car tonight ground.

I am still weary of an unexpected NE early turn however, it's happened enough times to not rule out of the possibility despite model guidance and the NHC saying otherwise.

[HurricaneBelle]

Parts of Pinellas should be. I'm in Indian Rocks the very western edge in Pinellas. I would reckon it's gonna pass just as close here as it will Anclote.

Mandatory evacuations will probably be ordered tomorrow morning for the beaches and low-lying areas.

[Kazmit]

Helene's outflow extends nearly down to the Galapagos Islands.

[Noles2016]

Saw a post comparing Helene to some of the Gulf Coast surge monsters of the early 2000s, like Ivan and Dennis. I think that's an apt comparison for this region with this one, to be honest.

I don't think we're looking at more than a low-end Cat 4 with Helene due to its sheer size despite the favorable conditions, but I think the surge situation is going to be considerably worse than with storms like Michael and Idalia, for example.

https://i.imgur.com/4bfj9sS.jpeg

Dennis, despite striking 200 miles to the west, brought 10' to my place in Shell Point [Wakulla]. If this is comparable, the Big Bend, south past Tampa is going to be in trouble.

[Poonwalker]

Parts of Pinellas should be. I'm in Indian Rocks the very western edge in Pinellas. I would reckon it's gonna pass just as close here as it will Anclote.

Mandatory evacuations will probably be ordered tomorrow morning for the beaches and low-lying areas.

I was looking at the graphic on NHC. Looked like Pinellas was red but I see it’s half red. I’ll have to check the tide heights and the timing for Thursday since the surge is what Iam most concerned about on this one.

[ElectricStorm]

Forecasted peak up slightly to 105kts