ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

NHC update, indeed 979 mbar and 60 kt.

...HELENE JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 86.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

[ROCK]

The AF309 plane also made a pass, 978.8 mbar extrapolated. A dropsonde measured 981 mbar with 22 kt winds so I'd put the current pressure at 979 mbar. They also measured 64 kt FL winds and 54 kt SFMR. Combining the data of all recon so far I'd put the current intensity at 979 mbar / 60 kt.

thanks Kevin,,,she is approaching hurricane status. Wont be long now. Build a decent core already and lets get this show going...

[GCANE]

The newly forecasted cutoff low centered along the southern end of the MS river will likely cause the forecast track to shift more west

[kevin]

If the current 325 deg heading holds and it currents position by NHC is accurate, it should be sufficient to prevent a landfall on Yucatan.

[aspen]

I just realized that thanks to the Fujiwhara interaction with the cutoff low, Helene’s remnants are gonna be a pain for the next week. Instead of quickly getting shot out to the sea like your typical Gulf/Florida storm, they’ll stick around to dump rain and cloud out the eastern half of the US. Doesn’t seem like it’ll be that severe after Florida, but it’s gonna be an annoyance, especially for people who wanted to see the comet in the morning sometime in the next week (me lol).

Seems like we’re starting to get rotating towers on visible. I expect Hurricane Helene at 11am.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking at microwave this morning, when the eye does clear, it's going to be massive

[ScottNAtlanta]

some of those cloud tops are colder than -90. Don't see that too often

[tolakram]

I just realized that thanks to the Fujiwhara interaction with the cutoff low, Helene’s remnants are gonna be a pain for the next week. Instead of quickly getting shot out to the sea like your typical Gulf/Florida storm, they’ll stick around to dump rain and cloud out the eastern half of the US. Doesn’t seem like it’ll be that severe after Florida, but it’s gonna be an annoyance, especially for people who wanted to see the comet in the morning sometime in the next week (me lol).

Seems like we’re starting to get rotating towers on visible. I expect Hurricane Helene at 11am.

Up here our top 5 flooding events are left overs of tropical storms getting stuck. Hopefully the models are wrong.

[xironman]

I just realized that thanks to the Fujiwhara interaction with the cutoff low, Helene’s remnants are gonna be a pain for the next week. Instead of quickly getting shot out to the sea like your typical Gulf/Florida storm, they’ll stick around to dump rain and cloud out the eastern half of the US. Doesn’t seem like it’ll be that severe after Florida, but it’s gonna be an annoyance, especially for people who wanted to see the comet in the morning sometime in the next week (me lol).

Seems like we’re starting to get rotating towers on visible. I expect Hurricane Helene at 11am.

The flooding could be epic in the mountains of GA, SC and NC. They gather all the water into the valleys where the towns are. Like the flooding seen in Vermont.

[Jr0d]

If the current 325 deg heading holds and it currents position by NHC is accurate, it should be sufficient to prevent a landfall on Yucatan.

Based on the pressure fixes I am seeing almost due north or at least 345, just slightly west of north.

Cuba's radar also suggest the north turn has happened.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

We are about to get data from another center pass. This should help confirm if Helene's current movement

[tolakram]

Visible floater: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[GCANE]

According to last fix, center is just slightly east of forecast track.

[Kingarabian]

Very ominous look on visible.

[Canelaw99]

South Florida with a TS warning.

 https://x.com/NWSMiami/status/1838876702124208481

I didn’t expect to wake up to the entire state covered in warnings and watches. I guess schools will probably be closed tomorrow. My teenagers are already up this morning checking for school closures.

Millions of kids hitting refresh looking for a school closure

Us teachers too

[Powellrm]

Visible floater: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

She’s firing. That east side looks mean.

[CronkPSU]

The newly forecasted cutoff low centered along the southern end of the MS river will likely cause the forecast track to shift more west

what is the CAPE looking like and should we be worried about tornado outbreaks in central florida?

[kevin]

New center pass by the NOAA plane, 979.3 mbar with 17 kt winds -> 978 mbar. They also found peak FL winds of 64 kt in the southern half of the storm.

[USTropics]

Here is a timelapse of the last ~3 hours with radar data from Cuba in the bottom left (keep in mind, the radar is analyzing mostly mid level features at that range):

[Charleswachal]

Here is a timelapse of the last ~3 hours with radar data from Cuba in the bottom left (keep in mind, the radar is analyzing mostly mid level features at that range):
https://i.imgur.com/W5TMBJq.gif

certainly looks like she is trying to open her eye on Sat. Looks like landfall on the tip of the Yucatan is very well a possibility

[sponger]

That core is looking ominous!

[url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir/url]