ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

Now moving NNE.

https://i.imgur.com/sKDcvUj.png

uhh, that's a wee bit early for a E component.

Probably getting tugged by intense towers and convection on the Eastern and Northern side of the storm.

Based on the last 2 vortex messages, Helene is moving NNE.

[jdjaguar]

I was running SLOSH this morning. A large Cat 3 moving into Apalachee Bay from the south or SSW would produce a 30 ft surge, not 10-15. Forward speed 25 mph at landfall.

oh my god. this is not what I wanted to hear from wxman57.
that is biblical proportion.

I will urge my friends to leave Crawfordville/Panacea area immediately, and not wait until tomorrow.

[jlauderdal]

Looking a successive eye drops, the core was moderately dry but is moistening up.

It was sucking in some dry air coming off Quntana Roo, that will be short lived.

[aspen]

Looks like there is a bit of a dry slot trying to work its way in on the east side of the CDO. Probably why that eastern band faded away in microwave. We’ll probably see Helene stay around 978-980mb until it’s able to mix it out and close off the eyewall.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I was running SLOSH this morning. A large Cat 3 moving into Apalachee Bay from the south or SSW would produce a 30 ft surge, not 10-15. Forward speed 25 mph at landfall.

Wow wow. Really?! That’s incredible. That could go miles inland. Im sure you are extremely busy but thank you for your valuable updates sir.

[cycloneye]

81kt peak wind

143030 2114N 08548W 6966 03013 9864 +120 +038 226080 081 043 008 00
143100 2115N 08549W 6965 03011 9865 +115 +039 221079 081 039 007 00
143130 2116N 08550W 6966 03004 9854 +121 +041 216075 081 036 008 00

[CronkPSU]

i am lookign at the weather channel's forecast for Tally, and the highest winds forecast are just above 50 mph and just one hour of 65 mph as it passes by...that seems really low for what they are forecasting the storm to be around landfall and how quickly it moves thru Tally after landfall, what am I missing?

[Pipelines182]

I was running SLOSH this morning. A large Cat 3 moving into Apalachee Bay from the south or SSW would produce a 30 ft surge, not 10-15. Forward speed 25 mph at landfall.

Those gators better watch out! lol but seriously, thankfully there's nothing to damage in the bay in the center or eastern side, just swamps and some camp grounds. Aside from the Everglades, that is the least populated coastline in Florida. If you had to pick somewhere in Florida to get hit by a major, this is the spot.

[Woofde]

Looks like there is a bit of a dry slot trying to work its way in on the east side of the CDO. Probably why that eastern band faded away in microwave. We’ll probably see Helene stay around 978-980mb until it’s able to mix it out and close off the eyewall.

It's hard to say how much effect it will have on the storm. The HWRF looks like it modeled this same dry air intrusion pretty well. In that run it just powers right through the dry air. It's gonna be another one of those "wait and see effects" type things. I could definitely see it acting as a small hurdle.

[caneman]

I was running SLOSH this morning. A large Cat 3 moving into Apalachee Bay from the south or SSW would produce a 30 ft surge, not 10-15. Forward speed 25 mph at landfall.

Wxman57. What is the slosh for Tampa Bay?. They backed it down to 3 to 6 feet but living here as long as I have I feel that 6 ft. Will be the minimum. Thanks.

[Jr0d]

While I dont think the wind has quite mixed to the surface(10% rule would be 73kts), I am sure Helene will be upgraded any minute with the 11am advisory. I think they will go with 80 mph.

[jdjaguar]

I was running SLOSH this morning. A large Cat 3 moving into Apalachee Bay from the south or SSW would produce a 30 ft surge, not 10-15. Forward speed 25 mph at landfall.

Those gators better watch out! lol but seriously, thankfully there's nothing to damage in the bay in the center or eastern side, just swamps and some camp grounds. Aside from the Everglades, that is the least populated coastline in Florida. If you had to pick somewhere in Florida to get hit by a major, this is the spot.

I beg to differ. Panacea is smack on the bay, albeit the western portion.

[StPeteMike]

I was running SLOSH this morning. A large Cat 3 moving into Apalachee Bay from the south or SSW would produce a 30 ft surge, not 10-15. Forward speed 25 mph at landfall.

Wxman57. What is the slosh for Tampa Bay?. They backed it down to 3 to 6 feet but living here as long as I have I feel that 6 ft. Will be the minimum. Thanks.

One of my friends shared that Shore Acres in St. Pete (just north of downtown but easily floods) already had water flooding the streets there….

[GCANE]

55 mm/hr rain rate.
Enough to support RI at some point.

[Nederlander]

I was running SLOSH this morning. A large Cat 3 moving into Apalachee Bay from the south or SSW would produce a 30 ft surge, not 10-15. Forward speed 25 mph at landfall.

Wxman57. What is the slosh for Tampa Bay?. They backed it down to 3 to 6 feet but living here as long as I have I feel that 6 ft. Will be the minimum. Thanks.

One of my friends shared that Shore Acres in St. Pete (just north of downtown but easily floods) already had water flooding the streets there….

This has to be from rainfall, not surge

[lovingseason2013]

I was running SLOSH this morning. A large Cat 3 moving into Apalachee Bay from the south or SSW would produce a 30 ft surge, not 10-15. Forward speed 25 mph at landfall.

Those gators better watch out! lol but seriously, thankfully there's nothing to damage in the bay in the center or eastern side, just swamps and some camp grounds. Aside from the Everglades, that is the least populated coastline in Florida. If you had to pick somewhere in Florida to get hit by a major, this is the spot.

I beg to differ. Panacea is smack on the bay, albeit the western portion.

Has anyone ever heard of Panacea, FL??? I think you just proved the guy's point, that there is no large metropolitan area in the crosshairs. While it will be devasting for a town like Panacea, it is small-scale compared to a Tampa type of event. I hope they fare okay given what is headed their way.

[Noles2016]

I was running SLOSH this morning. A large Cat 3 moving into Apalachee Bay from the south or SSW would produce a 30 ft surge, not 10-15. Forward speed 25 mph at landfall.

Those gators better watch out! lol but seriously, thankfully there's nothing to damage in the bay in the center or eastern side, just swamps and some camp grounds. Aside from the Everglades, that is the least populated coastline in Florida. If you had to pick somewhere in Florida to get hit by a major, this is the spot.

I beg to differ. Panacea is smack on the bay, albeit the western portion.

Even further east and closer to the center, there's hundreds of homes in Shell Point/Live Oak Island/Spŕing Creek

[StormPyrate]

There is no flooding yet from the Storm in Pinelles sorry

[kevin]

11am, up to 70 kt.

...HELENE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND FLOODING RAINS TO A LARGE PORTION OF FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 86.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

[ROCK]

now 80MPH....off she goes. Lets see how deep she gets.