ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tronbunny]

i am lookign at the weather channel's forecast for Tally, and the highest winds forecast are just above 50 mph and just one hour of 65 mph as it passes by...that seems really low for what they are forecasting the storm to be around landfall and how quickly it moves thru Tally after landfall, what am I missing?

Something sounds off about that. the old trees in that city are a hazard unto themselves.
https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=tae#hti

[jlauderdal]

Lived in South Florida all my life
We just had a rainband move in from a
Tropical storm that is 500 miles away

Incredible how large Helene is

Getting that band now, 2.5 in/hr. with lighting

[Pipelines182]

Has anyone ever heard of Panacea, FL??? I think you just proved the guy's point, that there is no large metropolitan area in the crosshairs. While it will be devasting for a town like Panacea, it is small-scale compared to a Tampa type of event. I hope they fare okay given what is headed their way.

Yes. I've been there. And we have some members here from there. Also Alligator Point is going to get wrecked. Most of the center and eastern part of the bay is state parks and wildlife refuges/estuaries. But there are actually some decent little towns tucked away in what you'd think are nowhere like Shell Point and Live Oak Point. Shell Point has a bunch of homes on canals with boat docks. You'd never even know it was there if you didn't need to know about it. It's getting wrecked too, and I'd be surprised if there was much left if the surge gets as high as it might. It is very sparse beyond that until you get over to Perry and Adams Beach

I get the point though. If somewhere's got to get hit, the least populated portion is best for the common good.

I go there twice a year and stay with friends at their coastal home. I guess it was just the callousness of "just gators, swamps and a few campgrounds", and then "has anyone ever heard of Panacea?
just plain cold.

I know its no Tampa, but people should think before they make comments like that.

It's just a fact, the area that may get 30' of surge is not where the towns are, it's literally where there's only gators, swamps, and campgrounds. I'm going to assume that's the peak storm surge number right at the very northern section of the bay, where all the surge gets piled up. The west side of the bay will not get 30' of surge from this storm, the NHC is forecasting around 10' at Carrabelle, with a touch more to the east of there.

I would absolutely not downplay 30' of surge coming for those small towns, I used to live near there, their lives are just as important as anyone else's.

[lovingseason2013]

I beg to differ. Panacea is smack on the bay, albeit the western portion.

Has anyone ever heard of Panacea, FL??? I think you just proved the guy's point, that there is no large metropolitan area in the crosshairs. While it will be devasting for a town like Panacea, it is small-scale compared to a Tampa type of event. I hope they fare okay given what is headed their way.

Guy literally said "nothing", and "just swamps and campgrounds". Most definitely did not prove his point, lol.

Its way off topic to even respond to you but . . . "Aside from the Everglades, that is the least populated coastline in Florida. If you had to pick somewhere in Florida to get hit by a major, this is the spot."

[chaser1]

Does anyone know if Palm Beach District schools will be closed tomorrow, 9/26/24?

I work in Miami-Dade County Schools and we haven’t heard yet. Not sure about Palm Beach. I’m sure those decisions will be made today.

Brevard County schools are closed tomorrow!

Up here in Central Florida, all Orange and Seminole County schools are closed tomorrow

[jdjaguar]

Yes. I've been there. And we have some members here from there. Also Alligator Point is going to get wrecked. Most of the center and eastern part of the bay is state parks and wildlife refuges/estuaries. But there are actually some decent little towns tucked away in what you'd think are nowhere like Shell Point and Live Oak Point. Shell Point has a bunch of homes on canals with boat docks. You'd never even know it was there if you didn't need to know about it. It's getting wrecked too, and I'd be surprised if there was much left if the surge gets as high as it might. It is very sparse beyond that until you get over to Perry and Adams Beach

I get the point though. If somewhere's got to get hit, the least populated portion is best for the common good.

I go there twice a year and stay with friends at their coastal home. I guess it was just the callousness of "just gators, swamps and a few campgrounds", and then "has anyone ever heard of Panacea?
just plain cold.

I know its no Tampa, but people should think before they make comments like that.

It's just a fact, the area that may get 30' of surge is not where the towns are, it's literally where there's only gators, swamps, and campgrounds. I'm going to assume that's the peak storm surge number right at the very northern section of the bay, where all the surge gets piled up. The west side of the bay will not get 30' of surge from this storm, the NHC is forecasting around 10' at Carrabelle, with a touch more to the east of there.

I would absolutely not downplay 30' of surge coming for those small towns, I used to live near there, their lives are just as important as anyone else's.

Understood. Their home is up on concrete pilings 19' elevation.

[Pipelines182]

i am lookign at the weather channel's forecast for Tally, and the highest winds forecast are just above 50 mph and just one hour of 65 mph as it passes by...that seems really low for what they are forecasting the storm to be around landfall and how quickly it moves thru Tally after landfall, what am I missing?

Something sounds off about that. the old trees in that city are a hazard unto themselves.
https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=tae#hti

The trees are honestly the biggest issue with inland hurricanes when it comes to wind damage. Trees in coastal areas are more resilient to wind, not so much inland. The inland tree damage from Michael was the worst I've ever seen from a tropical system, it was incredible.

[Powellrm]

Well I suppose the question now is how quickly Helene can clear the dry air and wrap its core. Given the environment and conditions, I would say that it should not take long, but the question is how long it'll take. And if that delay will be enough to prevent Helene from more quickly reaching RI to achieve the 930-940 numbers. Given the way she shaped up yesterday and the pressure dropping like an anchor recently, it may not be a good sign.

Will the dry air be one of those huge speed bumps that you hate because you basically have to stop before driving over it, or will it be one of those mild nuisance speed bumps where you barely have to slow down for lol.

[Woofde]

I'm not gonna lie this "Best spot for the storm to go discussion" is useless imo. I'll tell you, when I was chasing Idalia in Perry last year and staring at people's homes with trees through the middle and businesses without roofs, I definitely wasn't thinking "Well this was the best place for this storm to go!" I'm not a fan of this discussion it feels insensitive to the people who live there. There's nothing to be gained from it, we can't control where these go.

[ElectricStorm]

Still think it needs to get past the Yucatan before it can really start intensifying at a faster rate. You can see the dry slot continuing to wrap around the east and north sides. Should keep it in check for the next 12 hours or so IMO

[HurricaneBelle]

i am lookign at the weather channel's forecast for Tally, and the highest winds forecast are just above 50 mph and just one hour of 65 mph as it passes by...that seems really low for what they are forecasting the storm to be around landfall and how quickly it moves thru Tally after landfall, what am I missing?

Don't look at TWC, rely on the NWS. This is their official forecast for Leon County:

THURSDAY
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH, INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

THURSDAY NIGHT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. EAST WINDS 70 TO 80 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 95 MPH, BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISHING TO 25 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT.

NWS Tallahassee just updated their forecast:

THURSDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. EAST WINDS 70 TO 90 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 120 MPH, BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT.

I'd get the heck out of there - even if you're OK in the spot you are, you'll be living without power for an extended period of time if this forecast verifies.

[Kazmit]

The slight dry air issues were taken into account on the 06z HWRF. Note the band of lower (50%) RH on the east side of the core.



Now compare this to visible imagery right now and it's clear to see.



Despite this, the HWRF still peaks it right around landfall as a mid-range cat 3.

[Noles2016]

Has anyone ever heard of Panacea, FL??? I think you just proved the guy's point, that there is no large metropolitan area in the crosshairs. While it will be devasting for a town like Panacea, it is small-scale compared to a Tampa type of event. I hope they fare okay given what is headed their way.

Guy literally said "nothing", and "just swamps and campgrounds". Most definitely did not prove his point, lol.

Its way off topic to even respond to you but . . . "Aside from the Everglades, that is the least populated coastline in Florida. If you had to pick somewhere in Florida to get hit by a major, this is the spot."

That's a different statement altogether. I can agree with that one, not the other.

[tolakram]

Guy literally said "nothing", and "just swamps and campgrounds". Most definitely did not prove his point, lol.

Its way off topic to even respond to you but . . . "Aside from the Everglades, that is the least populated coastline in Florida. If you had to pick somewhere in Florida to get hit by a major, this is the spot."

That's a different statement altogether. I can agree with that one, not the other.

Let's move on please.

[fwbbreeze]

Tropical storm warnings now appear to extend west through Okaloosa County.

[Jr0d]

I cant say I agree with the NHC saying Helene is moving NNW given these center low pressure fixes show slightly east of north movement.

[Pipelines182]

Well I suppose the question now is how quickly Helene can clear the dry air and wrap its core. Given the environment and conditions, I would say that it should not take long, but the question is how long it'll take. And if that delay will be enough to prevent Helene from more quickly reaching RI to achieve the 930-940 numbers. Given the way she shaped up yesterday and the pressure dropping like an anchor recently, it may not be a good sign.

Will the dry air be one of those huge speed bumps that you hate because you basically have to stop before driving over it, or will it be one of those mild nuisance speed bumps where you barely have to slow down for lol.

That's going to be key and something we (humans + technology) can't model or predict with much accuracy. It could get mixed out in the next few hours or it could be an impediment all day and significantly reduce overall strength. Nothing to do but sit and watch if you aren't in the landfall area. Anywhere from C2-C4 on this storm seems very plausible.

[chaser1]

Judging from the satellite appearance, Helene is dealing with some wind shear, the CDO has become asymmetric. There's also signs of dry air entrainment, the CDO is warming and there's signs of thunderstorms collapsing with the outflow boundaries streaming off the southern and western sides. No RI for the time being.

I don't see that. Outflow is unrestricted and whatever pulsing of convection and cloud tops appear to me as nothing greater than part of the diurnal processes still at hand until the systems core is fully developed (getting close). I will say this though, there is a small upper level of dry air capping between 200mb and 300mb that might be slightly affecting the system's vertical vorticity where RH is showing to be only 40-50% within that layer (as depicted on the 6Z GFS vertical cross-section graphs - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 92506&fh=1 ) from about Longitude 85.5 and points westward. I'm sure that NHC clearly sees that, and why RI is practically a given after the hurricane begins moving northward and especially as it begins motion east of due north.

[Steve]

I cant say I agree with the NHC saying Helene is moving NNW given these center low pressure fixes show slightly east of north movement.

https://i.ibb.co/tLGMgKG/recon-AF309-1109-A-HELENE-6.png

You are right but as you probably also know their motion goes by several hours prior to the write up.

[dkommers]

I'm not gonna lie this "Best spot for the storm to go discussion" is useless imo. I'll tell you, when I was chasing Idalia in Perry last year and staring at people's homes with trees through the middle and businesses without roofs, I definitely wasn't thinking "Well this was the best place for this storm to go!" I'm not a fan of this discussion it feels insensitive to the people who live there. There's nothing to be gained from it, we can't control where these go.

Yeah I'm a Public Adjuster and have about 20 clients in Perry, Madison, Mayo, etc, from Idalia. Debbie created more messes, and now Helene. Three hurricanes hitting an area in a one-year time period is bonkers. It is true that being an isolated area, the money loss of a hit here compared to other regions will count as a win in the insurance companies' eyes. But the communities in this area are in shambles. The morale of the amazing people there is beyond horrible.

It seems this storm will also be much worse than the previous two. My stomach is hurting thinking about what people will soon be dealing with.