EPAC: JOHN - Remnants - Discussion

[Landy]

[Landy]

Already a partial core.

[ElectricStorm]

I know Helene is getting all the attention, but having back to back TCs in the same area within like two days of each other is absurd. Hopefully this doesn't pull a fast one like John but considering its current appearance I wouldn't really be surprised

[Landy]

I know Helene is getting all the attention, but having back to back TCs in the same area within like two days of each other is absurd. Hopefully this doesn't pull a fast one like John but considering its current appearance I wouldn't really be surprised

Recon will be flying at 21z today and 18z the next day so luckily this storm will actually have in situ obs.

[Subtrop]

Special Outlook Issued to update information about EP95, the system
offshore of Southern Mexico.

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Update: Recent ship observations indicate significant pressure falls
are occuring with an area of low pressure, partially associated with
the remnants of John, located offshore of Southern Mexico. Shower
and thunderstorm activity also continues to become better organized.
If these trends continue, a tropical depression or storm could form
as soon as later today, as long as the system remains over water.
Interests in southern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of
this system, and regardless of development, this system is expected
to produce heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding and
mudslides over a large portion of southern Mexico through this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Subtrop]

EP, 95, 2024092512, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1015W, 35, 1000, LO, 34, NEQ, 40, 70, 0, 0, 1005, 120, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JOHN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,

[Subtrop]

EP, 10, 2024092512, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1015W, 35, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 70, 0, 0, 1005, 120, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JOHN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025, TRANSITIONED, epC52024 to ep102024,

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024

...JOHN REFORMS...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 101.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast
of Mexico from Acapulco to Zihuatanejo.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas.





Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024
900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024

John has reformed near the southwestern coast of Mexico. The
CIMSS-UW satellite vorticity analyses show remnants of vorticity,
likely associated with the mid-level circulation of John, have
merged with a larger source of vorticity from the monsoon trough.
Convection has gradually become better organized based on
geostationary infrared and visibly imagery. An AMSR2 microwave pass
at 0807 UTC showed curved banding near the surface, indicating a
well-defined surface center. A Dvorak classification from TAFB has
given John a 2.0/35 kt and that is the initial intensity for this
advisory.

The environmental conditions appear conducive for John to strengthen
in the next day or so, as long as the circulation stays over water.
Global models show the vertical wind shear remaining
weak-to-moderate, ample mid-level moisture, and very warm sea
surface temperatures. Statistical guidance even suggests there is
an above average possibility for strong-to-rapid intensification.
The latest NHC intensity forecast shows John reaching a peak
intensity of 55 kt in 24 h, which is near the HCCA intensity aid and
at the top of the guidance envelope. However, there is a chance
John may become a hurricane prior to landfall.

The tropical storm is meandering eastward in the monsoonal flow with
an estimate motion of 80/2 kt. Models indicate that John will
gradually turn towards the north later today and accelerate slightly
towards the coast on Thursday. Regional and global models vary the
timing of landfall, with the GFS and GFS-based hurricane models
showing John at the coast by tomorrow evening and the ECMWF
lingering offshore until Friday. The official track forecast calls
for landfall along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico on
Thursday evening, however, there is uncertainty associated with this
timing. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been
issued by the government of Mexico for portions of the coast of
southern Mexico and interests there should closely monitor future
forecasts for updates.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional
rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very
heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall
will likely cause significant and catastrophic, life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero,
Oaxaca, coastal Chiapas, and coastal Michoaca.

2. John is forecast to strengthen before landfall, and a Hurricane
Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for a portion of
the coastline of southern and southwestern Mexico, where tropical
storm conditions could begin later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 16.2N 101.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 16.3N 101.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 16.7N 101.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 17.3N 101.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 17.8N 101.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky

[InfernoFlameCat]

Welcome back John. I wonder if it might do the same thing as last time and RI into a major hurricane.

[MarioProtVI]

This is likely the weirdest system I’ve tracked all year, especially with the offland reformation.

[Category5Kaiju]

I was a bit busy tracking Helene at the moment but….

WHAT??!!! John’s back again? Dang, this is one persistent storm

[Kingarabian]

Dual rotating towers near the LLC. It's still close enough to the coastline where continental dry air can limit the rate of intensification. But OHC is so high in this area that it can quickly take off again.

[lilbump3000]

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[ScottNAtlanta]

When I asked if anyone thought this would get into the GOM, the question should have been will this get back into the EPAC again and develop

[cycloneye]

Looks impressive. AF plane is on route to see how strong it is.

[AnnularCane]

He seems pretty comfy there.

[galaxy401]

There appears to be two different John threads, the other one is in Archive. Can't they be merged? I got confused on why this thread only had 1 page.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like we've got an eyeball building. John is again wasting no time.

[Kingarabian]

There appears to be two different John threads, the other one is in Archive. Can't they be merged? I got confused on why this thread only had 1 page.

Yeah it's the same system.

[InfernoFlameCat]

John really wants another bite out of Mexico. A double majot landfall would be shocking. Im not saying it will get to major again but it might.